【摘要】：經(jīng)濟增長過熱、高通貨膨脹與城鄉(xiāng)收入差距逐步擴大無不影響到和諧社會的構建，成為我國政府當前亟需高度關注的問題，它們之間是否存在一定的互動關系值得我們去做進一步探究。本文首先對三者之間的關系做了一個系統(tǒng)性的文獻綜述，正文部分則采用理論分析和實證分析，定性分析和定量分析相結合的方法來研究三者之間的作用機制。論文考慮到1978-2010年階段數(shù)據(jù)缺失嚴重可能導致實證結果失真，故同時選用全國31個省市1993-2010數(shù)據(jù)構建PVAR模型進行對比分析，研究發(fā)現(xiàn)以1978-2010年為樣本進行研究所得到的一些結論確實是與我國的國情不相符的，而1993-2010年的模型結果則較好地擬合了經(jīng)濟增長、通貨膨脹與城鄉(xiāng)收入差距之間的互動關系。1993-2010年PVAR模型估計結果表明，三者的互動關系分別存在由正向變?yōu)樨撓蚧蛴韶撓蜃優(yōu)檎騼煞N情況；脈沖響應分析表明同一個變量在面對不同變量或不同變量在面對同一個變量的正向沖擊時，存在相同或不同反應兩種情況，具體分析如下：（1）經(jīng)濟增長對通貨膨脹的影響是一個由正變?yōu)樨撓虻倪^程，說明我國現(xiàn)階段粗放型的經(jīng)濟增長方式會在很大程度上誘使通貨膨脹的發(fā)生，但GDP高速增長和低CPI穩(wěn)定并存，宏觀經(jīng)濟處于良性運行的軌道這個重要的經(jīng)濟目標也是可以實現(xiàn)的。通貨膨脹則一直不利于經(jīng)濟的增長。（2）經(jīng)濟增長首先對城鄉(xiāng)收入差距有負向的影響，從變化趨勢看來，這種影響可能變?yōu)檎�。城鄉(xiāng)收入差距對經(jīng)濟增長的作用經(jīng)歷了一個由負向變?yōu)檎虻倪^程。（3）城鄉(xiāng)收入差距對通貨膨脹的影響經(jīng)歷了一個由負向轉變?yōu)檎虻倪^程。通貨膨脹先是抑制城鄉(xiāng)收入差距的擴大，從變化趨勢看來，通貨膨脹將對城鄉(xiāng)收入差距的擴大起促進作用。方差分解則表明各變量一個標準差變化的雖然絕大部分均可由其自身變化來解釋，但其余兩個變量的變化對其也有一定的影響，且有些變量的貢獻率是比較大的。三者之間存在如此的緊密關系引導著國家在經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的同時兼顧通貨膨脹程度和城鄉(xiāng)收入差距的大小，盡量將三者之間不利影響程度減小到最低，，這將具有重要的理論研究和現(xiàn)實研究意義。針對這些結論，本文最后給出了相應的政策建議，另外，針對論文的不足本文還提出了一定的研究展望。
[Abstract]:The overheating of economic growth, high inflation and the gradual widening of the income gap between urban and rural areas have all affected the construction of a harmonious society, which has become an urgent problem for our government to pay close attention to at present. Whether there is a certain interaction between them is worth further exploring. Firstly, this paper makes a systematic literature review of the relationship among the three, and the main body uses theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis to study the mechanism of action among the three. Considering that the lack of data in the stage of 1978 / 2010 may lead to the distortion of empirical results, this paper selects the 1993 / 2010 data of 31 provinces and cities in China to construct PVAR model for comparative analysis. It is found that some conclusions obtained from 1978-2010 as samples are indeed inconsistent with the national conditions of our country, while the results of 1993-2010 model fit the economic growth well. The interaction between inflation and urban-rural income gap. The estimated results of PVAR model from 1993 to 2010 show that the interaction between inflation and urban-rural income gap varies from positive to negative or from negative to positive, respectively. Impulse response analysis shows that the same variable has the same or different response to the positive impact of different variables or different variables in the face of the positive impact of the same variable. The specific analysis is as follows: (1) the impact of economic growth on inflation is a process from positive to negative, which indicates that the extensive economic growth mode of our country will induce inflation to a great extent. However, the rapid growth of GDP and the stability of low CPI coexist, and the important economic goal of macroeconomic in the track of benign operation can also be achieved. Inflation, on the other hand, has been detrimental to economic growth. (2) Economic growth first has a negative impact on the income gap between urban and rural areas, which may become positive from the changing trend. The effect of urban-rural income gap on economic growth has gone through a process from negative to positive. (3) the impact of urban-rural income gap on inflation has gone through a process from negative to positive. Inflation first suppresses the widening of the income gap between urban and rural areas. From the changing trend, inflation will promote the widening of the income gap between urban and rural areas. Variance decomposition shows that although most of the variation of standard deviation of each variable can be explained by its own change, the change of the other two variables also has a certain influence on it, and the contribution rate of some variables is relatively large. The existence of such a close relationship among the three guides the country to take into account the degree of inflation and the income gap between urban and rural areas at the same time of economic development, and to minimize the adverse effects among the three, which will have important theoretical and practical research significance. In view of these conclusions, this paper finally gives the corresponding policy recommendations, in addition, in view of the shortcomings of the paper, this paper also puts forward some research prospects.
【學位授予單位】：湖南大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F124.1;F822.5;F124.7;F224

【參考文獻】

相關期刊論文 前10條

1 李偉軍;洪功翔;駱永民;;城市化對非農產(chǎn)業(yè)的溢出效應——基于面板VAR模型[J];財經(jīng)科學;2011年05期

2 車維漢;王茜;;1980-2006年東亞經(jīng)濟波動的原因——基于面板VAR的分析[J];財經(jīng)研究;2009年11期

3 劉海慶;高凌江;;我國稅制結構、稅負水平與經(jīng)濟增長的關系研究——基于全國30個省級單位面板數(shù)據(jù)的PVAR分析[J];財經(jīng)理論與實踐;2011年03期

4 李珊;逄錦麗;;中國城鄉(xiāng)收入差距與經(jīng)濟增長實證研究[J];合作經(jīng)濟與科技;2009年04期

5 樊綱;通貨膨脹與收入差距[J];經(jīng)濟經(jīng)緯;1995年02期

6 高原;;我國居民收入差距與通貨膨脹實證研究[J];經(jīng)濟視角(下);2011年05期

7 鄧曉益;李四維;;居民收入差距與通貨膨脹關系(1978-2002)[J];經(jīng)濟師;2006年10期

8 左大培;;中國的經(jīng)濟增長與通貨膨脹[J];經(jīng)濟學動態(tài);2008年06期

9 中國經(jīng)濟增長與宏觀穩(wěn)定課題組;張平;劉霞輝;張曉晶;汪紅駒;;外部沖擊與中國的通貨膨脹[J];經(jīng)濟研究;2008年05期

10 陳敏輝;;城鄉(xiāng)收入差距對中國經(jīng)濟增長的影響機制研究——基于我國省際動態(tài)面板數(shù)據(jù)的系統(tǒng)GMM分析[J];技術經(jīng)濟;2011年05期

本文編號：2511227