中國—東盟自由貿(mào)易區(qū)（CAFTA）框架下人民幣區(qū)域化研究
發(fā)布時間：2019-07-03 19:01
【摘要】：2008年的金融危機影響深遠,世界經(jīng)濟蒙受重大損失,現(xiàn)行國際貨幣體系的缺陷也暴露無遺。在“布雷頓森林體系”和“牙買加協(xié)議”基礎(chǔ)上構(gòu)建起來的現(xiàn)行國際貨幣體系缺乏必要的制度約束,導(dǎo)致各國宏觀經(jīng)濟穩(wěn)定性和金融資產(chǎn)安全不能妥善維護,因此,各國要求公平、公正的多極化國際貨幣體系的呼聲日益強烈。與此同時,中國經(jīng)濟總量的不斷攀升,經(jīng)濟保持持續(xù)穩(wěn)定快速的增長,綜合國力不斷增強,國際地位也日益上升。中國發(fā)展成為世界格局中的重要力量,人民幣的國際地位問題逐漸受到國內(nèi)外廣泛關(guān)注。作為人口多、發(fā)展快的出口大國,中國擁有高額的外匯儲備,只有人民幣在國際上發(fā)揮計價、交易和儲備功能,才能使中國擁有相應(yīng)的國際經(jīng)濟話語權(quán)和決策權(quán)。隨著經(jīng)濟不斷增長,人民幣在周邊國家也逐漸成為硬通貨,中國政府在金融危機中表現(xiàn)出的高度責任感使人民幣的國際聲望得到大幅提升。人民幣對于抑制美元和推動國際貨幣體系改革也負有不可推卸的責任。 2010年,中國—東盟自由貿(mào)易區(qū)(以下簡稱CAFTA)在經(jīng)過長達十年的建設(shè)后正式啟動,自貿(mào)區(qū)內(nèi)90%以上的貿(mào)易品關(guān)稅降為0,區(qū)域內(nèi)的經(jīng)濟貨幣合作前景十分廣泛。人民幣區(qū)域化的進程能夠緩解區(qū)域貿(mào)易中單純依賴美元的單邊格局,對區(qū)域經(jīng)濟穩(wěn)定提供保障。人民幣在貿(mào)易結(jié)算中得到廣泛使用,能夠降低匯率波動對進出口商的影響,同時能夠降低匯兌成本和交易成本。在當前我國資本項目尚未完全放開的背景下,本文嘗試探討在CAFTA框架下人民幣實現(xiàn)區(qū)域化的可能性。 根據(jù)最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)理論,貨幣區(qū)域化是指一國貨幣成為區(qū)域性的國際貨幣,貨幣在該區(qū)域內(nèi)履行國際貨幣職能。貨幣區(qū)域化是介于貨幣周邊化和國際化之間的過程。本文所研究的人民幣區(qū)域化是指,在中國和東盟的區(qū)域內(nèi),通過自由貿(mào)易區(qū)的制度安排作為推動手段,經(jīng)過長時間貨幣合作和競爭而使人民幣成為該區(qū)域內(nèi)核心流通貨幣,履行貿(mào)易計價和貿(mào)易結(jié)算的職能。 首先,本文闡明在金融危機和CAFTA成立的背景下,人民幣推進國際化、區(qū)域化的意義,然后對本文討論的東盟、中國—東盟自由貿(mào)易區(qū)、人民幣區(qū)域化等概念進行了界定,整理了學(xué)者們的相關(guān)研究文獻,包括對東亞地區(qū)最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)的研究綜述、CAFTA經(jīng)濟效應(yīng)的研究綜述和貿(mào)易推動人民幣區(qū)域化的研究綜述。 其次,對貿(mào)易發(fā)展推動人民幣區(qū)域化的相關(guān)理論進行梳理,包括對最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)理論的產(chǎn)生和發(fā)展進行了闡述,總結(jié)了國際貿(mào)易計價結(jié)算貨幣選擇理論。在此理論基礎(chǔ)上,對貿(mào)易發(fā)展在歐元、拉美地區(qū)美元和日元的國際化過程中推動作用進行了比較分析,總結(jié)出人民幣區(qū)域化值得借鑒的經(jīng)驗教訓(xùn)。進一步分析了目前在CAFTA框架下人民幣區(qū)域化具備的有利條件：人民幣已經(jīng)在東盟廣泛使用,中國經(jīng)濟實力強大和人民幣幣值穩(wěn)定、堅挺,中國對外貿(mào)易的迅速發(fā)展,東亞貨幣合作發(fā)展的需要。繼而使用數(shù)據(jù)和指標對中國與東盟的經(jīng)濟周期一致性、經(jīng)濟穩(wěn)定性、貿(mào)易依存度與貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)等方面的差異進行比較,以實證的方式,檢驗了CAFTA整體的貿(mào)易聯(lián)系和產(chǎn)出增長的趨同性。 再次,分析了CAFTA框架下人民幣區(qū)域化面臨的主要問題和挑戰(zhàn)。分別從我國的經(jīng)濟實力,對外貿(mào)易的競爭力,我國金融體系現(xiàn)狀,以東盟為中心的自由貿(mào)易區(qū)網(wǎng)絡(luò)建設(shè),東盟的制度法規(guī)安排,和美國、日本對人民幣區(qū)域化的制約等方面進行了探討。 最后,根據(jù)前文的分析,提出在CAFTA框架下人民幣區(qū)域化的策略,從國內(nèi)和國際兩方面提出了相關(guān)建議。 本文的創(chuàng)新之處在于嘗試在CAFTA框架下對區(qū)域內(nèi)各國進行了貿(mào)易依存度和產(chǎn)出增長性的內(nèi)生性檢驗,此外,利用數(shù)據(jù)分析了東盟建設(shè)自由貿(mào)易區(qū)網(wǎng)絡(luò)對中國的影響。論文的不足之處在于,在應(yīng)對策略分析方面,所提策略的可操作性尚待檢驗。這些都是今后需要繼續(xù)努力研究的。另外,由于能力有限,一些統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)不能獲得,或者不能獲得最新的統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù),導(dǎo)致分析做得不夠深入
[Abstract]:The financial crisis in 2008 had a far-reaching impact and the world economy suffered heavy losses, and the current international monetary system's shortcomings were also exposed. The current international monetary system, which is built on the basis of the "the Bretton Woods system" and the "Jamaica Agreement", lacks the necessary institutional constraints, which leads to the lack of proper maintenance of the macro-economic stability and the security of the financial assets. Therefore, the call for a fair and just multi-polar international monetary system is becoming more and more intense. At the same time, the economic growth of China's economy, the sustained and steady growth of the economy, the continuous enhancement of the overall national strength and the increasing international status. China's development has become an important force in the world pattern, and the international status of the RMB has been paid more and more attention at home and abroad. As an export country with many population and fast development, China has a high foreign exchange reserve, and only the RMB has the function of pricing, trading and reserve in the international level, so as to make China have the corresponding international economic right and decision-making power. With the growth of the economy, the yuan has also gradually become hard currency in the neighboring countries, and the high sense of responsibility of the Chinese government in the financial crisis has greatly improved the international prestige of the RMB. The RMB has an unshirkable responsibility for the suppression of the United States dollar and for the reform of the international monetary system. In 2010, China's ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA) was officially launched after a decade of construction. The tariff of more than 90% of the trade goods in the FTZ was reduced to 0, and the economic and monetary cooperation in the region was very wide. The process of RMB regionalization can alleviate the single-sided pattern of the dollar in the regional trade, and provide the guarantee for regional economic stability. The RMB is widely used in the trade settlement, which can reduce the effect of exchange rate fluctuation on the import and export, and also reduce the exchange cost and the transaction. This paper attempts to explore the possibility of regionalization under the framework of CAFTA in the background that the current capital project has not been completely released. on the basis of the theory of the optimal currency area, the monetary regionalization means that a country's currency becomes a regional international currency and that the currency carries out international goods in the region Currency function. The currency regionalization is between the peripheral and the internationalization of the currency The process of RMB regionalization as studied in this paper means that, in the region of China and ASEAN, the RMB is the core circulation currency in the region through long-time monetary cooperation and competition, through long-time monetary cooperation and competition, and the trade-pricing and trade settlement are fulfilled. First of all, this paper expounds the significance of RMB's promotion of internationalization and regionalization under the background of the establishment of financial crisis and CAFTA, and then defines the concept of the ASEAN, China's ASEAN Free Trade Area and the RMB regionalization as discussed in this paper. The research literature, including the review of the optimal currency area in East Asia, the review of the economic effect of the CAFTA, and the trade-driven RMB regionalization Secondly, the paper sorts out the related theories of the trade development to promote the regionalization of the RMB, including the development of the theory of the optimal monetary area, and sums up the pricing knot of the international trade. On the basis of this theory, the role of trade development in the process of the internationalization of the euro, the US dollar and the Japanese yen is compared and analyzed, and the regional value of the RMB is summarized. The paper further analyses the favorable conditions for the RMB regionalization under the framework of the CAFTA: the RMB has been widely used in the ASEAN, the strong China's economic strength and the stable and strong the RMB, the rapid development of China's foreign trade, the East Asian currency The paper compares the difference between China and ASEAN's economic cycle, economic stability, trade and trade structure and so on by using the data and index, and examines the trade relation and production of the whole CAFTA in an empirical way. The trend of the growth is analyzed again, and the regional surface of the RMB under the framework of the CAFTA is analyzed. The main problems and challenges in China are the economic strength of our country, the competitiveness of foreign trade, the present situation of the financial system of our country, the network construction of the free trade area with the ASEAN as the center, the arrangement of the system and regulations of the ASEAN, and the system of the regionalization of the RMB in the United States and Japan. In the end, according to the above analysis, the strategy of RMB regionalization under the framework of CAFTA is put forward, from the country and the country The innovation of this paper is to try to carry out the endogenous test of the trade and output growth of countries in the region under the framework of the CAFTA, and to use the data to analyze the construction of the ASEAN A free-trade area network has an impact on China. The disadvantage of this paper is that, in dealing with the policy analysis, The operability of the proposed strategy has yet to be verified. There is a need for continued efforts in the future. In addition, due to limited capacity, some statistics are not available or the latest system is not available
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F741.2;F832.6
本文編號：2509601
[Abstract]:The financial crisis in 2008 had a far-reaching impact and the world economy suffered heavy losses, and the current international monetary system's shortcomings were also exposed. The current international monetary system, which is built on the basis of the "the Bretton Woods system" and the "Jamaica Agreement", lacks the necessary institutional constraints, which leads to the lack of proper maintenance of the macro-economic stability and the security of the financial assets. Therefore, the call for a fair and just multi-polar international monetary system is becoming more and more intense. At the same time, the economic growth of China's economy, the sustained and steady growth of the economy, the continuous enhancement of the overall national strength and the increasing international status. China's development has become an important force in the world pattern, and the international status of the RMB has been paid more and more attention at home and abroad. As an export country with many population and fast development, China has a high foreign exchange reserve, and only the RMB has the function of pricing, trading and reserve in the international level, so as to make China have the corresponding international economic right and decision-making power. With the growth of the economy, the yuan has also gradually become hard currency in the neighboring countries, and the high sense of responsibility of the Chinese government in the financial crisis has greatly improved the international prestige of the RMB. The RMB has an unshirkable responsibility for the suppression of the United States dollar and for the reform of the international monetary system. In 2010, China's ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA) was officially launched after a decade of construction. The tariff of more than 90% of the trade goods in the FTZ was reduced to 0, and the economic and monetary cooperation in the region was very wide. The process of RMB regionalization can alleviate the single-sided pattern of the dollar in the regional trade, and provide the guarantee for regional economic stability. The RMB is widely used in the trade settlement, which can reduce the effect of exchange rate fluctuation on the import and export, and also reduce the exchange cost and the transaction. This paper attempts to explore the possibility of regionalization under the framework of CAFTA in the background that the current capital project has not been completely released. on the basis of the theory of the optimal currency area, the monetary regionalization means that a country's currency becomes a regional international currency and that the currency carries out international goods in the region Currency function. The currency regionalization is between the peripheral and the internationalization of the currency The process of RMB regionalization as studied in this paper means that, in the region of China and ASEAN, the RMB is the core circulation currency in the region through long-time monetary cooperation and competition, through long-time monetary cooperation and competition, and the trade-pricing and trade settlement are fulfilled. First of all, this paper expounds the significance of RMB's promotion of internationalization and regionalization under the background of the establishment of financial crisis and CAFTA, and then defines the concept of the ASEAN, China's ASEAN Free Trade Area and the RMB regionalization as discussed in this paper. The research literature, including the review of the optimal currency area in East Asia, the review of the economic effect of the CAFTA, and the trade-driven RMB regionalization Secondly, the paper sorts out the related theories of the trade development to promote the regionalization of the RMB, including the development of the theory of the optimal monetary area, and sums up the pricing knot of the international trade. On the basis of this theory, the role of trade development in the process of the internationalization of the euro, the US dollar and the Japanese yen is compared and analyzed, and the regional value of the RMB is summarized. The paper further analyses the favorable conditions for the RMB regionalization under the framework of the CAFTA: the RMB has been widely used in the ASEAN, the strong China's economic strength and the stable and strong the RMB, the rapid development of China's foreign trade, the East Asian currency The paper compares the difference between China and ASEAN's economic cycle, economic stability, trade and trade structure and so on by using the data and index, and examines the trade relation and production of the whole CAFTA in an empirical way. The trend of the growth is analyzed again, and the regional surface of the RMB under the framework of the CAFTA is analyzed. The main problems and challenges in China are the economic strength of our country, the competitiveness of foreign trade, the present situation of the financial system of our country, the network construction of the free trade area with the ASEAN as the center, the arrangement of the system and regulations of the ASEAN, and the system of the regionalization of the RMB in the United States and Japan. In the end, according to the above analysis, the strategy of RMB regionalization under the framework of CAFTA is put forward, from the country and the country The innovation of this paper is to try to carry out the endogenous test of the trade and output growth of countries in the region under the framework of the CAFTA, and to use the data to analyze the construction of the ASEAN A free-trade area network has an impact on China. The disadvantage of this paper is that, in dealing with the policy analysis, The operability of the proposed strategy has yet to be verified. There is a need for continued efforts in the future. In addition, due to limited capacity, some statistics are not available or the latest system is not available
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F741.2;F832.6
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