【摘要】：人民幣國際化是現(xiàn)階段中國政府在國際貨幣金融領(lǐng)域中的核心發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略。香港人民幣離岸市場的形成和發(fā)展是人民幣國際化戰(zhàn)略的重要環(huán)節(jié)。香港人民幣離岸市場是在中國政府政策主導下逐步形成的,屬于政策推動型的本幣離岸金融市場。政策推動與本幣離岸也是香港人民幣離岸市場的顯著特征。本文對香港人民幣離岸市場形成與發(fā)展的研究分為七個部分。 第一部分為導論。這部分介紹了選題背景和研究意義,對國際離岸金融市場和香港人民幣離岸金融市場的形成、發(fā)展模式、監(jiān)管、影響和建設(shè)等方面進行了相關(guān)文獻綜述的梳理,對本文的研究方法和結(jié)構(gòu)安排進行了闡述,并指出本文研究的創(chuàng)新之處與不足。 第二部分對第二次世界大戰(zhàn)以后國際離岸金融市場的發(fā)展變化進行歸納與梳理,并通過總結(jié)二戰(zhàn)后國際離岸金融市場發(fā)展的經(jīng)驗。二戰(zhàn)后離岸金融市場的傳統(tǒng)形式是歐洲貨幣市場,之后出現(xiàn)了“在岸”離岸金融市場的形式。離岸金融的定義依據(jù)也從國境或邊境演變成金融監(jiān)管體系或金融運行體系的內(nèi)外分離。對離岸金融市場類型的劃分可以從不同的角度進行,主要包括形成方式、運行模式、貨幣種類、業(yè)務(wù)構(gòu)成等多種角度。從交易貨幣與市場所在地之間的關(guān)系角度來看,離岸金融可以分為“本幣離岸金融”和“外幣離岸金融”。二戰(zhàn)后國際離岸金融市場在運行模式、監(jiān)管方式以及離岸利率體系等方面為香港人民幣離岸市場提供了重要的發(fā)展經(jīng)驗。 第三部分闡述了香港人民幣離岸市場在政策推動下的建立背景和過程,并分析了香港人民幣離岸市場的特殊性。人民幣國際化戰(zhàn)略的需要、全球離岸金融持續(xù)增長趨勢的國際金融形勢和環(huán)境以及香港發(fā)達金融系統(tǒng)提供的有利條件,是香港人民幣離岸市場建立的重要背景。從2003年底到2012年初,香港人民幣離岸市場的建立過程包括萌芽階段、形成階段和全面建設(shè)階段。香港人民幣離岸市場是在境外由政策推動的本幣離岸市場,所以,與同樣屬于政策推動型本幣離岸市場的紐約美元離岸市場或東京日元離岸市場相比,香港人民幣離岸市場在建立方式、產(chǎn)生原因、運行模式以及監(jiān)管模式等方面存在著顯著的特殊性。 第四部分對香港人民幣離岸市場的結(jié)構(gòu)進行了分析。在香港離岸人民幣貨幣市場上,離岸人民幣存款的增速會有所下降,香港企業(yè)人民幣存款的比例仍會上升,政策因素、人民幣升值預期以及人民幣回流渠道是離岸人民幣貸款融資業(yè)務(wù)發(fā)展的重要影響因素。離岸人民幣存貸款利率將會上升,三大銀行的人民幣同業(yè)拆借利率水平趨于一致,統(tǒng)一的人民幣市場基準利率HIBOR CNY的出現(xiàn)尚需時日。香港離岸人民幣債券市場將繼續(xù)保持快速增長趨勢,離岸人民幣債券收益率將上升,其二級市場有望得到快速發(fā)展,更多內(nèi)地企業(yè)將直接赴港發(fā)行人民幣債券,離岸人民幣債券的定價機制將會得到完善。香港離岸人民幣股票市場發(fā)展緩慢,但境外中小型企業(yè)是香港離岸人民幣股票市場的重點吸引和發(fā)展對象。香港離岸人民幣即期和遠期外匯市場發(fā)展迅速,但是受到人民幣可自由兌換性等政策因素的約束較大。香港離岸人民幣產(chǎn)品包括離岸人民幣的金融衍生產(chǎn)品以及金融投融資產(chǎn)品。離岸人民幣產(chǎn)品收益、人民幣匯率預期以及相關(guān)管制政策是影響離岸人民幣產(chǎn)品市場發(fā)展的重要因素。 第五部分對香港人民幣離岸市場的影響進行了分析。在對境內(nèi)在岸金融市場的影響方面,離岸人民幣匯率對在岸人民幣匯率存在著引導關(guān)系,主要表現(xiàn)在離岸人民幣短期合約對在岸人民幣即期和短期合約方面。同時,即期或短期限的離岸與在岸人民幣匯率的雙向引導關(guān)系將會愈加明顯。但是,離岸人民幣利率的波動對在岸人民幣利率基本上不會產(chǎn)生明顯的影響。沒有在境外借外債額度的境內(nèi)機構(gòu)或企業(yè)在香港融資人民幣后并回流到境內(nèi),或RQFII的人民幣回流會明顯增加境內(nèi)貨幣供應(yīng)量的規(guī)模,而外資企業(yè)的人民幣FDI以及人民幣貿(mào)易結(jié)算的人民幣回流不會對境內(nèi)貨幣供應(yīng)量的規(guī)模產(chǎn)生影響。人民幣離岸金融市場的發(fā)展會提升香港國際金融中心的地位和實力,但人民幣替代港元的可能性依然很低,其對港元的替代條件并不具備。同時,香港人民幣離岸市場為國際金融市場提供更多的投融資場所和機會,也使人民幣在國際貨幣結(jié)構(gòu)中的影響力得到顯著提升。 第六部分探討了香港人民幣離岸市場的預期風險問題。香港人民幣離岸市場發(fā)展過程中的預期風險主要有兩個根源,即政策取向問題和市場預期問題。離岸與在岸人民幣價格或收益的差異是政策取向預期風險產(chǎn)生的重要原因。在香港人民幣離岸市場上的最重要市場預期就是對人民幣的升值預期。穩(wěn)定的人民幣升值預期是支撐香港人民幣離岸市場發(fā)展的基本條件,但也成為人民幣離岸市場發(fā)展的風險根源。香港人民幣離岸市場的預期風險包括投機套利阻礙市場健康發(fā)展的風險、短期跨境資金流動的風險、削弱貨幣政策有效性的風險、阻礙人民幣國際化進程的“再貸款游戲”風險、離岸市場建設(shè)過程中的其它風險。香港人民幣離岸市場預期風險防范的基本思路包括縮小離岸與在岸人民幣價格和收益的差異、推動內(nèi)地利率市場化和匯率形成機制的改革深化、加強監(jiān)管機制的完善和市場的風險管理、推進香港人民幣離岸市場不斷走向成熟。 第七部分在對國際離岸金融發(fā)展經(jīng)驗以及香港人民幣離岸市場的建立、結(jié)構(gòu)、影響和預期風險分析的基礎(chǔ)上,提出香港人民幣離岸市場發(fā)展的政策建議。香港人民幣離岸市場是促進人民幣國際化的重要途徑,但對人民幣國際化進程以及目標的實現(xiàn),只有促進作用而無決定作用。香港人民幣離岸市場的功能定位體現(xiàn)在三個角度：其一,香港人民幣離岸市場是創(chuàng)建和完善人民幣外部循環(huán)體系的重要平臺,是資本賬戶沒有完全開放條件下,促進人民幣國際化進程的重要方式。其二,香港人民幣離岸市場的發(fā)展是人民幣資本項目加速開放的重要誘因。其三,香港人民幣離岸市場的發(fā)展是內(nèi)地金融改革的實驗田和催化劑。對其發(fā)展的政策建議主要涉及兩個層面的四個問題,即自身建設(shè)層面的人民幣離岸金融基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)和離岸人民幣利率市場化這兩個問題；政策推動層面的離岸人民幣回流機制以及人民幣資本賬戶開放這兩個問題。人民幣離岸金融基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)主要包括市場交易體系、支付結(jié)算體系和支持保障體系的建設(shè)。離岸人民幣利率市場化是十分必要的,并通過離岸人民幣資金池達到一定規(guī)模、建立和完善離岸人民幣拆借市場、促進離岸人民幣貸款與融資業(yè)務(wù)的發(fā)展、完善和發(fā)展離岸人民幣投資市場以及逐步放松政策管制來逐步實現(xiàn)離岸人民幣利率市場化。在離岸人民幣回流渠道建設(shè)方面,繼續(xù)推進人民幣結(jié)算的回流渠道、進一步完善RQFII人民幣回流渠道、繼續(xù)發(fā)展境內(nèi)銀行間債券市場的人民幣回流渠道以及積極探索其它的人民幣回流渠道。同時,堅持發(fā)展的漸進性和監(jiān)管的有效性。資本賬戶的開放是推動香港人民幣離岸市場發(fā)展以及人民幣國際化的重要手段,要審慎推進資本賬戶的開放,并通過對監(jiān)管的認識、監(jiān)管方式的完善、監(jiān)管主體的參與,在管制逐漸放松過程中實現(xiàn)有效監(jiān)管。
[Abstract]:The internationalization of RMB is the core development strategy of the Chinese government in the field of international monetary finance. The formation and development of the RMB offshore market in Hong Kong is an important part of the internationalization strategy of RMB. The Hong Kong's offshore market is gradually formed under the Chinese government's policy, and is a policy-driven, local-currency, offshore financial market. Policy-driven and local-currency offshore is also a significant feature of the Hong Kong's offshore market. The research on the formation and development of RMB offshore market in Hong Kong is divided into seven parts. The first part is the guide In this part, the background and significance of the topic selection are introduced, and the development, development, supervision, influence and construction of the offshore financial market of the international offshore financial market and the offshore financial market of Hong Kong are analyzed, and the research methods and structure arrangements of this paper are also discussed. It also points out that the innovation of this paper is not the same as that of the non- The second part sums up the changes of the international offshore financial market after the Second World War, and concludes the development of the international offshore financial market after World War II The traditional form of offshore financial markets after World War II is the European currency market, followed by a "on shore" of offshore financial markets The definition of the offshore finance is based on the development of the frontier or border into the financial supervision system or the system of financial operation External separation. The division of the type of offshore financial market can be carried out from different angles, mainly including the form of formation, the mode of operation, the type of currency, the composition of the business, etc. From the perspective of the relationship between the transaction currency and the market location, the offshore finance can be divided into "offshore finance in local currency" and

"foreign currency office finance" . The international offshore financial market, after the Second World War, has provided important issues for the offshore market of Hong Kong in terms of the mode of operation, the way of regulation and the system of offshore interest rate. The third part sets out the background and process of the Hong Kong's RMB offshore market under the promotion of the policy, and analyzes the offshore market of Hong Kong. The particularity of the field, the need of the RMB internationalization strategy, the international financial situation and environment of the trend of global offshore financial growth and the favorable conditions provided by the developed financial system in Hong Kong are the establishment of the offshore market in Hong Kong The establishment of the Hong Kong RMB offshore market from the end of 2003 to the beginning of 2012 includes the embryonic stage, the formation stage and the whole The offshore market of the Hong Kong currency is an offshore market driven by policy outside the country, so the offshore market of the Hong Kong currency is set up in the same way as the offshore market of the US dollar and the offshore market of the Japanese yen, which is also the offshore market of the policy-driven domestic currency. There are significant differences in the reasons, the operation mode, and the supervision mode. The particularity of the works. The fourth part is about the Hong Kong's offshore market. The structure is analyzed. In the offshore RMB currency market in Hong Kong, the growth rate of the offshore RMB deposits will decrease, and the proportion of RMB deposits in the Hong Kong enterprises will still rise, and the policy factors, the expected appreciation of the RMB and the return channel of the RMB are the development of the offshore RMB loan financing business The interest rate of the offshore RMB deposit and loan will rise, and the level of the RMB interbank borrowing rate of the three banks will be consistent, and the unified RMB market benchmark interest rate is HIBOR CNY. It will take time. The Hong Kong's offshore renminbi bond market will continue to maintain a fast-growing trend. The yield of the offshore renminbi bond will rise, and its secondary market is expected to grow rapidly, and more of the mainland's enterprises will go directly to Hong Kong to issue the RMB bond and the offshore RMB bond pricing machine. The system will be improved. Hong Kong's offshore RMB stock market is developing slowly, but the small and medium-sized enterprises outside China are the key points of the offshore RMB stock market in Hong Kong Attract and develop the object. Hong Kong's offshore RMB spot and long-term foreign exchange market is developing rapidly, but it is subject to the policy of free convertibility of the RMB The factors are more constrained. Hong Kong's offshore renminbi products include the offshore renminbi's financial derivatives and Financial investment and financing products. The offshore RMB product yield, the RMB exchange rate expectation and the related control policy are the influence of the offshore RMB product market The important factor of development. The fifth part is the offshore market of Hong Kong The effect of the field is analyzed. In terms of the influence of the onshore financial market in China, the offshore RMB exchange rate has a direct relationship with the onshore RMB exchange rate, which is mainly manifested in the offshore RMB short-term contract to the onshore RMB both spot and short-term contract terms. At the same time, both the spot or the short-term offshore and onshore RMB exchange rate is two-way The relationship will become more obvious. However, the fluctuation of the offshore yuan interest rate is basically the same as the onshore RMB interest rate No significant impact will be produced. In the case of a domestic institution or an enterprise with a foreign debt limit outside the territory of Hong Kong, it is not allowed to return to the territory, or the RMB return of the RQFII will increase significantly. The size of the internal money supply, and the RMB FDI in the foreign-capital enterprise and the RMB exchange settlement of the RMB trade settlement will not be supplied to the domestic currency The magnitude of the amount should be affected. The development of the renminbi's offshore financial markets will enhance the position and strength of the Hong Kong International Financial Centre, but the possibility of the renminbi to replace the Hong Kong dollar remains low, as it is for the Hong Kong dollar At the same time, the offshore market of the Hong Kong currency provides more investment and financing places and opportunities for the international financial market, and the RMB in the international monetary structure The influence is remarkably improved. The sixth part discusses the Hong Kong RMB The expected risk of the offshore market is the main source of the expected risks in the development of the RMB offshore market in Hong Kong, that is, the policy The issue of orientation and market expectations. The difference between the FOB and the onshore RMB is the policy orientation. An important reason for the expected risk. The most important market expectations in the Hong Kong's offshore market are It is expected that the appreciation of the currency is expected. The stable appreciation of the RMB is expected to be the basic condition to support the development of the Hong Kong RMB offshore market, but it is also RMB The risk of the development of the offshore market. The expected risks of the offshore market of Hong Kong include the risk of the speculative arbitrage to hinder the development of the market's health, the risk of short-term cross-border financial flows, the risk of weakening the effectiveness of the monetary policy, the "reloan game" risk to the internationalization process of the RMB, and the offshore market. Other risks during the construction of the field. The basic idea of the risk prevention of the Hong Kong's offshore market is to reduce the difference between the price and the income of the offshore and onshore RMB, to promote the reform of the market-based and exchange-rate-forming mechanism of the inland interest rate, and to strengthen the supervision mechanism The improvement of the market and the risk management of the market and the promotion of the people of Hong Kong In the seventh part, on the basis of the analysis of the international offshore financial development experience and the establishment, structure, impact and expected risk analysis of the offshore market in Hong Kong, the Hong Kong people The policy advice of the development of the offshore market of the People's Republic of China. The offshore market of the RMB is an important way to promote the internationalization of the RMB, but the realization of the internationalization of the RMB and the realization of the target The function positioning of the Hong Kong RMB offshore market is three angles: first, the offshore market of the Hong Kong is an important platform for creating and perfecting the external circulation system of the RMB, which is the promotion of the capital account not fully open Second, the development of the RMB offshore market in Hong Kong is RMB The development of the Hong Kong's offshore market is an important incentive to accelerate the opening of capital projects. The experimental field and the catalyst of the local financial reform. The policy suggestions for its development mainly concern the four problems at the two levels, that is, the construction of the offshore financial infrastructure and the offshore financial infrastructure at the self-construction level. The two problems of the marketization of the RMB interest rate; the offshore RMB return mechanism at the level of the policy and the people The construction of the offshore financial infrastructure of the RMB mainly includes the market trading system and the payment of the settlement. The construction of the system and support guarantee system. The market of the offshore RMB interest rate is necessary, and the offshore RMB fund pool reaches a certain size, and the offshore RMB borrowing market is established and improved, and the offshore RMB market is promoted. The development of RMB loan and financing business, the improvement and development of the offshore RMB investment market and the gradual relaxation of the policy control Step up the marketization of the offshore RMB interest rate. In the area of the offshore RMB return channel construction, continue to promote the return channel of RMB settlement, further improve the RQFII RMB return channel, and continue to develop the RMB return channel and product of the inter-bank bond market in China Explore the other RMB return channel. At the same time, adhere to The opening of the capital account is an important means of promoting the development of the RMB offshore market and the internationalization of the RMB. The opening of the capital account should be carefully promoted and the supervision should be regulated. The improvement of the way, the participation of the regulatory body, and the control
【學位授予單位】：吉林大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.6

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