【摘要】：居民儲(chǔ)蓄存款是社會(huì)總儲(chǔ)蓄的重要組成部分,也是推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的重要資金來(lái)源。居民儲(chǔ)蓄存款在經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中發(fā)揮著極其重要的作用。居民儲(chǔ)蓄的快速增長(zhǎng),是我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的主要資金來(lái)源,是改革開放順利進(jìn)行的重要保證。然而,過(guò)度儲(chǔ)蓄構(gòu)成經(jīng)濟(jì)的一種潛在威脅,本文的目的是研究我國(guó)城鄉(xiāng)居民儲(chǔ)蓄的特點(diǎn),從而尋求影響我國(guó)城鄉(xiāng)居民高儲(chǔ)蓄率的原因,以期發(fā)現(xiàn)降低儲(chǔ)蓄擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需的對(duì)策。本文在借鑒緩沖儲(chǔ)備儲(chǔ)蓄模型的基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)模型進(jìn)行適當(dāng)改進(jìn)——加入了居民持有財(cái)富的不確定性,使其更加符合我國(guó)城鄉(xiāng)居民的儲(chǔ)蓄行為。由于Beffer Stock模型不存在確定的解析解,所以給該模型的實(shí)證帶來(lái)了相當(dāng)大的困難,本文采用Carroll和Samwick (1997、1998)在兼顧外生流動(dòng)性約束和內(nèi)生流動(dòng)性約束的條件下,利用倒推法得到模型的模擬結(jié)果,然后利用我國(guó)29個(gè)省市、自治區(qū)的數(shù)據(jù),建立面板數(shù)據(jù)模型,通過(guò)總體和分地區(qū)的模型估計(jì)發(fā)現(xiàn)：1、緩沖儲(chǔ)備儲(chǔ)蓄模型能夠很好地解釋我國(guó)居民的儲(chǔ)蓄行為。2、作為目標(biāo)財(cái)富與收入比的替代變量—儲(chǔ)蓄與耐用品的和與收入的比,除了受收入不確定性,還受財(cái)富不確定性影響。3、影響城鄉(xiāng)目標(biāo)持有財(cái)富與收入比的因素地區(qū)間不相同,東部和東北部地區(qū)受收入不確定性的因素影響較小,而西部和中部地區(qū)受到財(cái)富不確定性的影響較大。
[Abstract]:Household savings deposit is not only an important part of total social savings, but also an important source of funds to promote economic growth. Household savings deposits play an extremely important role in economic development. The rapid growth of residents' savings is the main source of funds for China's economic development and an important guarantee for the smooth progress of reform and opening up. However, excessive savings constitute a potential threat to the economy. The purpose of this paper is to study the characteristics of urban and rural residents' savings in China, so as to seek the reasons that affect the high savings rate of urban and rural residents in China, in order to find out the countermeasures to reduce savings and expand domestic demand. On the basis of drawing lessons from the buffer reserve savings model, this paper makes an appropriate improvement to the model by adding the uncertainty of residents holding wealth to make it more in line with the savings behavior of urban and rural residents in China. Because there is no definite analytical solution in Beffer Stock model, it is quite difficult to prove the model. In this paper, Carroll and Samwick (1997, 1998) are used under the condition of taking into account both exogenous liquidity constraint and endogenic liquidity constraint. The simulation results of the model are obtained by backstepping method, and then the panel data model is established by using the data of 29 provinces, cities and autonomous regions in China. Through the overall and regional model estimation, it is found that: 1, The buffer reserve savings model can well explain the savings behavior of Chinese residents. 2. As an alternative variable of the target wealth to income ratio-the sum of savings and durable goods to income, in addition to the uncertainty of income, It is also affected by wealth uncertainty. 3, the factors that affect the ratio of urban and rural target holding wealth to income vary from region to region, while the eastern and north-eastern regions are less affected by income uncertainty. The western and central regions are greatly affected by wealth uncertainty.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F224;F832.22

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