中國外匯市場壓力研究
發(fā)布時間：2019-05-11 05:49
【摘要】：自1994年匯率并軌以后,近年來我國國際貿(mào)易一直呈現(xiàn)出經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目與資本項(xiàng)目雙順差格局,國際收支大量盈余導(dǎo)致人民幣在外匯市場上存在著較大的升值壓力。2005年實(shí)行參考一籃子貨幣定值的有管理的浮動匯率制度之后,雖然人民幣升值壓力得到了一定程度的緩解,但這種壓力依舊存在,2011年末與2005年匯改之日相比累計(jì)升值22%。中央銀行為了維持人民幣匯率的基本穩(wěn)定而被迫進(jìn)行外匯市場干預(yù)。然而,中央銀行應(yīng)在何種程度上對外匯市場進(jìn)行干預(yù)以及干預(yù)后的效果如何,這在很大程度上取決于決策者對本幣在外匯市場上所面臨的升值或貶值壓力的預(yù)測和判斷。因此,深入研究人民幣外匯市場壓力的產(chǎn)生原因和測算方法,對于明確人民幣匯率的未來走向及貨幣當(dāng)局制定宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策具有重要的參考價值和指導(dǎo)意義。 本文在對國內(nèi)外相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)梳理的基礎(chǔ)上,介紹了外匯市場壓力的定義與內(nèi)涵,并基于模型依賴法的兩國貨幣模型構(gòu)建合意的外匯市場壓力指數(shù),根據(jù)設(shè)定的外生變量分別討論經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、國際收支、投資儲蓄、外資流入對外匯市場壓力產(chǎn)生的影響。通過選用以貨幣理論為基礎(chǔ)的Weymark(?)旨數(shù)法估計(jì)了中國1994年1月至2011年12月的人民幣外匯市場壓力指數(shù)和央行外匯干預(yù)指數(shù),并結(jié)合實(shí)證結(jié)果分析了1994年來人民幣外匯市場壓力與央行外匯干預(yù)力度的變動趨勢,得出我國人民幣兌美元匯率一直處于升值的壓力之中,70%以上都是通過外匯干預(yù)來緩解的,我國央行外匯干預(yù)力度較強(qiáng)的結(jié)論。最后,從經(jīng)濟(jì)面基本因素、匯率預(yù)期、國際壓力三方面對人民幣外匯市場壓力的產(chǎn)生原因進(jìn)行了深入分析,并針對人民幣匯率機(jī)制改革、貨幣政策、央行外匯干預(yù)提出了相應(yīng)的對策建議。
[Abstract]:Since the merger of exchange rates in 1994, China's international trade has been showing a double surplus pattern of current account and capital account in recent years. After implementing a managed floating exchange rate system with reference to a basket of currencies in 2005, although the pressure on RMB appreciation has been alleviated to a certain extent, the surplus of balance of payments has led to greater pressure on appreciation of the RMB in the foreign exchange market. But this pressure still exists, at the end of 2011 compared with the date of exchange rate reform in 2005, a cumulative appreciation of 22%. The central bank was forced to intervene in the foreign exchange market in order to maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate. However, the extent to which the central bank should intervene in the foreign exchange market and how effective it will be depends, to a large extent, on the decision-makers' predictions and judgments on the pressure of appreciation or devaluation of the currency in the foreign exchange market. Therefore, it is of great reference value and guiding significance to study the causes and calculation methods of RMB foreign exchange market pressure in order to clarify the future trend of RMB exchange rate and the formulation of macroeconomic policy by monetary authorities. This paper introduces the definition and connotation of foreign exchange market pressure on the basis of systematically combing the relevant literatures at home and abroad, and constructs the desired foreign exchange market pressure index based on the model-dependent monetary model of the two countries. According to the set exogenous variables, the effects of economic growth, balance of payments, investment savings and foreign capital inflows on the pressure of foreign exchange market are discussed respectively. Through the selection of Weymark based on monetary theory (?) This paper estimates the RMB foreign exchange market pressure index and the central bank's foreign exchange intervention index from January 1994 to December 2011, and analyzes the changing trend of the RMB foreign exchange market pressure and the central bank's foreign exchange intervention intensity since 1994, combined with the empirical results. It is concluded that the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has been under the pressure of appreciation, more than 70% of which are alleviated by foreign exchange intervention, and the central bank of China has a strong foreign exchange intervention. Finally, this paper makes an in-depth analysis of the causes of RMB foreign exchange market pressure from three aspects: economic basic factors, exchange rate expectations and international pressure, and aims at the reform of RMB exchange rate mechanism and monetary policy. The central bank foreign exchange intervention puts forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.52
本文編號：2474289
[Abstract]:Since the merger of exchange rates in 1994, China's international trade has been showing a double surplus pattern of current account and capital account in recent years. After implementing a managed floating exchange rate system with reference to a basket of currencies in 2005, although the pressure on RMB appreciation has been alleviated to a certain extent, the surplus of balance of payments has led to greater pressure on appreciation of the RMB in the foreign exchange market. But this pressure still exists, at the end of 2011 compared with the date of exchange rate reform in 2005, a cumulative appreciation of 22%. The central bank was forced to intervene in the foreign exchange market in order to maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate. However, the extent to which the central bank should intervene in the foreign exchange market and how effective it will be depends, to a large extent, on the decision-makers' predictions and judgments on the pressure of appreciation or devaluation of the currency in the foreign exchange market. Therefore, it is of great reference value and guiding significance to study the causes and calculation methods of RMB foreign exchange market pressure in order to clarify the future trend of RMB exchange rate and the formulation of macroeconomic policy by monetary authorities. This paper introduces the definition and connotation of foreign exchange market pressure on the basis of systematically combing the relevant literatures at home and abroad, and constructs the desired foreign exchange market pressure index based on the model-dependent monetary model of the two countries. According to the set exogenous variables, the effects of economic growth, balance of payments, investment savings and foreign capital inflows on the pressure of foreign exchange market are discussed respectively. Through the selection of Weymark based on monetary theory (?) This paper estimates the RMB foreign exchange market pressure index and the central bank's foreign exchange intervention index from January 1994 to December 2011, and analyzes the changing trend of the RMB foreign exchange market pressure and the central bank's foreign exchange intervention intensity since 1994, combined with the empirical results. It is concluded that the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has been under the pressure of appreciation, more than 70% of which are alleviated by foreign exchange intervention, and the central bank of China has a strong foreign exchange intervention. Finally, this paper makes an in-depth analysis of the causes of RMB foreign exchange market pressure from three aspects: economic basic factors, exchange rate expectations and international pressure, and aims at the reform of RMB exchange rate mechanism and monetary policy. The central bank foreign exchange intervention puts forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.52
【引證文獻(xiàn)】
相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條
1 黃翔;資本賬戶開放下央行匯率風(fēng)險管理研究[D];福州大學(xué);2014年
，本文編號：2474289
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