【摘要】：房地產(chǎn)泡沫會嚴(yán)重影響金融系統(tǒng)的穩(wěn)定和社會經(jīng)濟的健康發(fā)展，嚴(yán)重的通貨膨脹不僅會破壞社會經(jīng)濟的穩(wěn)定發(fā)展，而且會影響社會安定。近幾年來，伴隨著我國房地產(chǎn)市場的迅猛發(fā)展，房地產(chǎn)價格快速上漲；同時，我國的物價水平也持續(xù)上升，通貨膨脹預(yù)期增強。國家針對不斷上漲的房地產(chǎn)價格與物價水平，采取了一系列的宏觀調(diào)控政策，說明中央政府擔(dān)心我國出現(xiàn)嚴(yán)重的房地產(chǎn)泡沫和通貨膨脹。 本文在吸收國內(nèi)外研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上，首先從理論上分析房地產(chǎn)泡沫與通貨膨脹之間的關(guān)系，然后把規(guī)范分析與實證分析相結(jié)合，，研究我國房地產(chǎn)泡沫和通貨膨脹的現(xiàn)狀，基于VAR模型分析我國房地產(chǎn)泡沫與通貨膨脹之間的長期均衡關(guān)系與短期波動之間的相互作用。根據(jù)我國的實際情況，借鑒歐美債務(wù)危機的教訓(xùn)，提出了一些防止我國房地產(chǎn)泡沫和通貨膨脹的政策建議。 本文由六個部分組成。第一章是緒論，對于選題背景和意義、國內(nèi)外文獻(xiàn)綜述、研究思路、研究方法以及創(chuàng)新點進行了闡述。第二章主要研究房地產(chǎn)泡沫和通貨膨脹兩者之間的相關(guān)關(guān)系，通過分析房地產(chǎn)泡沫對通貨膨脹產(chǎn)生影響的作用機制是通過托賓Ｑ效應(yīng)、財富效應(yīng)和金融加速器效應(yīng)來影響投資和消費，進而影響通貨膨脹；通貨膨脹通過影響房地產(chǎn)市場的需求與供給來影響房地產(chǎn)泡沫指數(shù)，揭示了房地產(chǎn)價格與通貨膨脹之間相互作用的傳導(dǎo)途徑及兩者的成因皆為流動性過剩。第三章主要根據(jù)美國次貸危機和歐洲債務(wù)危機中房地產(chǎn)泡沫與通貨膨脹之間的關(guān)系，對上一章的理論進行實證檢驗并得出結(jié)論：這兩次危機都出現(xiàn)了房地產(chǎn)泡沫破滅現(xiàn)象，并引發(fā)了更大的金融危機或主權(quán)債務(wù)危機，究其根源都是貨幣流動性過剩的緣故。本章還分析了這兩個國際案例對我國的啟示。第四章對我國近年來的房地產(chǎn)泡沫和通貨膨脹現(xiàn)象以及產(chǎn)生的主要原因進行了分析。第五章是實證分析，基于VAR模型分析了房地產(chǎn)泡沫系數(shù)與通貨膨脹之間的長期均衡關(guān)系與短期波動的相互作用，指出房地產(chǎn)泡沫的膨脹對物價上漲在短期內(nèi)和長期內(nèi)對物價影響均為正相關(guān)，但短期內(nèi)房地產(chǎn)泡沫對物價水平的正向影響并不十分明顯，長期影響顯著。文章最后一部分結(jié)合理論分析與實證分析的結(jié)論，根據(jù)我國的實際情況，給出了一些防止房地產(chǎn)泡沫和通貨膨脹的相關(guān)政策建議。
[Abstract]:Real estate bubble will seriously affect the stability of financial system and the healthy development of social economy. Serious inflation will not only destroy the stable development of social economy, but also affect social stability. In recent years, with the rapid development of China's real estate market, real estate prices are rising rapidly. In view of the rising real estate prices and price levels, the state has adopted a series of macro-control policies, indicating that the central government is worried about the emergence of a serious real estate bubble and inflation in China. On the basis of absorbing the domestic and foreign research results, this paper first theoretically analyzes the relationship between real estate bubble and inflation, then combines normative analysis with empirical analysis to study the current situation of real estate bubble and inflation in China. Based on the VAR model, this paper analyzes the interaction between the long term equilibrium relationship between real estate bubble and inflation and the short term fluctuation. According to the actual situation of our country and drawing lessons from the debt crisis in Europe and the United States, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions to prevent the real estate bubble and inflation in our country. This paper consists of six parts. The first chapter is the introduction, the background and significance of the topic, domestic and foreign literature review, research ideas, research methods and innovative points are described. The second chapter mainly studies the relationship between real estate bubble and inflation, through the analysis of the real estate bubble impact on inflation mechanism is through the Tobin Q effect, Wealth effect and financial accelerator effect to affect investment and consumption, and then affect inflation; Inflation affects the real estate bubble index by influencing the demand and supply of the real estate market, which reveals the conduction way of the interaction between the real estate price and inflation and the cause of both the excess liquidity. The third chapter is mainly based on the relationship between the real estate bubble and inflation in the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and the debt crisis in Europe, and makes an empirical test of the theory in the previous chapter and draws a conclusion that the real estate bubble burst in these two crises. And caused a greater financial crisis or sovereign debt crisis, the root causes of excess monetary liquidity. This chapter also analyzes the inspiration of these two international cases to China. Chapter four analyzes the real estate bubble and inflation in recent years. The fifth chapter is empirical analysis, based on the VAR model to analyze the real estate bubble coefficient and inflation between the long-term equilibrium relationship and short-term volatility interaction, It is pointed out that the inflation of the real estate bubble has a positive correlation with the price rise in the short and long term, but the positive effect of the real estate bubble on the price level is not very obvious in the short term. In the last part of the paper, combining the conclusions of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, and according to the actual situation of our country, we give some relevant policy suggestions to prevent real estate bubble and inflation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F293.3;F822.5;F224

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