【摘要】：追求物價穩(wěn)定是國家宏觀調(diào)控的主要目標(biāo)之一，嚴重的通貨膨脹一旦發(fā)生，不僅會對經(jīng)濟發(fā)展造成破壞，也會影響到社會的穩(wěn)定。而房地產(chǎn)價格的高低直接與居民生活條件掛鉤，關(guān)系到民生，房地產(chǎn)價格波動也直接影響到社會投資水平、消費水平和國民生產(chǎn)總值。目前中國的現(xiàn)狀是，一方面，物價水平持續(xù)升高，，通脹壓力持續(xù)擴大；另一方面，自1998年國家取消福利房分配以來，房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)發(fā)展迅速，房價急劇上漲，泡沫化傾向加劇。因此，房價膨脹和通貨膨脹都是國家宏觀調(diào)控的焦點。近年來國家采取了一系列的宏觀調(diào)控政策來響應(yīng)持續(xù)上漲的房地產(chǎn)價格與物價水平，說明政府對物價管理和房地產(chǎn)宏觀調(diào)控的重視，擔(dān)心出現(xiàn)嚴重的房地產(chǎn)泡沫和通貨膨脹。 本文將研究范圍選擇為房價波動對通貨膨脹的傳導(dǎo)機制，而非簡單闡述兩者的相關(guān)性，這不僅是對資產(chǎn)價格和物價影響機制的探討，更是梳理金融經(jīng)濟和實體經(jīng)濟的關(guān)系，一方面有助于完善關(guān)于兩者傳導(dǎo)機制的研究成果，為進一步推動學(xué)術(shù)界對金融經(jīng)濟和實體經(jīng)濟關(guān)系的研究作出理論貢獻，另一方面理順兩者的傳導(dǎo)過程有助于明確房價波動和通貨膨脹之間較強的相關(guān)性，這為貨幣當(dāng)局制定和執(zhí)行有效的、有針對性的宏觀調(diào)控政策提供理論依據(jù)和指導(dǎo)方向性，有利于平抑物價上漲，穩(wěn)定房地產(chǎn)價格。因此這個研究方向是有較大的理論價值和現(xiàn)實意義的。本文的結(jié)構(gòu)安排是：首先，在介紹國內(nèi)外研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上，闡述通貨膨脹和房價波動的相關(guān)理論；其次，在對國內(nèi)房價與物價的現(xiàn)實情況予以介紹與分析后，重點探討房價波動對通貨膨脹的具體傳導(dǎo)途徑及相應(yīng)的影響模型；最后，通過數(shù)據(jù)整理和實證分析得出我國房價波動與通貨膨脹之間的計量關(guān)系，并依據(jù)理論和實證結(jié)果提供政策建議。
[Abstract]:The pursuit of price stability is one of the main goals of national macro-control. Once serious inflation occurs, it will not only destroy the economic development, but also affect the social stability. The price of real estate is directly linked to the living conditions of the residents and relates to the people's livelihood. The fluctuation of the real estate price also directly affects the level of social investment, consumption level and gross national product. At present, China's current situation is that, on the one hand, the price level continues to rise, inflation pressure continues to expand; on the other hand, since the state abolished the distribution of welfare housing in 1998, the real estate industry has developed rapidly, house prices have risen sharply, and the tendency to bubble has intensified. Therefore, housing price inflation and inflation are the focus of national macro-control. In recent years, the state has adopted a series of macro-control policies to respond to the rising real estate prices and price levels, indicating that the government attaches importance to price management and macro-control of real estate, and is worried about the emergence of serious real estate bubbles and inflation. This paper chooses the scope of study as the transmission mechanism of house price fluctuation to inflation, rather than simply expounding the correlation between the two, which is not only to discuss the mechanism of asset price and price influence, but also to sort out the relationship between financial economy and real economy. On the one hand, it is helpful to perfect the research results on the transmission mechanism of both, and to further promote the academic research on the relationship between the financial economy and the real economy. On the other hand, straightening out the transmission process between the two is helpful to clarify the strong correlation between house price fluctuation and inflation, which provides the theoretical basis and direction for the monetary authorities to formulate and implement effective and targeted macro-control policies. It is helpful to stabilize the price rise and stabilize the real estate price. Therefore, this research direction is of great theoretical value and practical significance. The structure of this paper is as follows: first, on the basis of introducing the domestic and foreign research results, expound the related theories of inflation and house price fluctuation; Secondly, after introducing and analyzing the real situation of domestic house price and price, the paper mainly discusses the specific conduction way and the corresponding influence model of the fluctuation of house price to inflation; Finally, through data collation and empirical analysis, this paper draws a quantitative relationship between house price fluctuation and inflation in China, and provides policy recommendations based on theoretical and empirical results.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湘潭大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F822.5;F299.23

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