【摘要】：近年來,信用債券市場得到大力發(fā)展,但是作為信用債券,由于缺乏國家信用做擔(dān)保,其價值和價格的變化幾乎完全取決于投資人對發(fā)行人資質(zhì)信息的掌握程度,以及在此基礎(chǔ)上做出的信用風(fēng)險判斷。而目前投資者對信用債券信用風(fēng)險的判斷,幾乎都來源于信用評級機(jī)構(gòu)給出的信用評級報告。而鑒于我國信用評級機(jī)構(gòu)成立較晚,信用評級方法不夠健全,各信用評級機(jī)構(gòu)之間的評級方法不盡相同,以及信用評級報告給出的信息、有限,甚至出現(xiàn)企業(yè)花錢買通評級機(jī)構(gòu)來換取高評級的現(xiàn)象,導(dǎo)致評級機(jī)構(gòu)給出的評級結(jié)果和評級信息缺乏公信力,對投資者的投資而言意義不大,甚至在一定程度上還會影響投資者做出合理的投資決策。 雖然至今,我國還沒有出現(xiàn)真正意義上的信用風(fēng)險事件,沒有哪只債券出現(xiàn)了無法還本付息的現(xiàn)象,但是伴隨著信用債券市場的迅速發(fā)展壯大,信用風(fēng)險將是投資者投資時面臨的主要風(fēng)險。企業(yè)的經(jīng)營狀況出現(xiàn)問題,債券的還本付息變得困難,信用事件的爆發(fā)是任何一個債券投資者不愿踩到的地雷。因此,如果對債券的信用風(fēng)險有個完善的可操作的信用評級辦法來幫助投資者分析債券,努力避免踩到信用風(fēng)險地雷,對投資者而言,將是一筆不小的財富。 本文就是從投資者的角度出發(fā),根據(jù)投資者對短期債券和長期債券的不同的投資理念,努力構(gòu)建一套科學(xué)的、可實際操作的、包含信息充分債券評級方法,為投資者的投資保駕護(hù)航。 本文安排如下： 第一章導(dǎo)論部分,首先介紹了此次研究的選題背景,梳理了相關(guān)概念。 第二章介紹了債券信用評級方法在我國的缺陷,最后針對信用評級機(jī)構(gòu)給出的評級結(jié)果進(jìn)行了實證檢驗。 第三章從信用風(fēng)險的影響因素和信用評級的一般模型與方法兩個方面文梳理、回顧和總結(jié)相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)后提出了本文的分析框架。 第四章和第五依據(jù)債券投資者的投資理念,分別提出了短期債券信用評級方法和長期債券信用評級方法。 第六章分別針對前兩章提出的債券信用評級方法做了實證分析,得出這整套信用評級方法有效的結(jié)論。 第七章總結(jié)本文的結(jié)論的同時也提出了一些相應(yīng)的政策建議,此外還弱弱提出了債券信用評級方法研究的展望。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the credit bond market has been greatly developed, but as credit bonds, due to the lack of state credit guarantee, the changes in value and price depend almost entirely on the degree to which investors have grasped the issuer's qualification information. And on the basis of credit risk judgment. At present, investors' judgment on credit risk of credit bonds comes from credit rating reports from credit rating agencies. In view of the late establishment of the credit rating agencies in China, the inadequate credit rating methods, the different rating methods among the credit rating agencies, and the limited information given by the credit rating reports, Even the phenomenon of companies buying out rating agencies in exchange for high ratings has led to a lack of credibility in the ratings results and rating information given by rating agencies, which is of little significance to investors' investments. Even to a certain extent, investors will be affected to make reasonable investment decisions. Although up to now, there has been no real credit risk event in our country, and no bond has been unable to service its principal and interest, but with the rapid development of the credit bond market, Credit risk will be the main risk that investors face when investing. Business is in trouble, debt servicing has become difficult, and the outbreak of credit events is a mine that any bond investor is unwilling to step on. So it would be a big asset for investors to have a sound operational credit rating approach to the credit risk of bonds to help investors analyze bonds and try to avoid stepping on the credit risk mines. This article is from the investor's angle, according to the investor's different investment idea to the short-term bond and the long-term bond, tries hard to construct a set of scientific, practical, including information sufficient bond rating method. To protect the investment of investors. The thesis is arranged as follows: the first chapter introduces the background of this research and combs the related concepts. The second chapter introduces the defects of the bond credit rating method in China, and finally makes an empirical test on the rating results given by the credit rating agencies. The third chapter reviews the influencing factors of credit risk and the general models and methods of credit rating, then reviews and summarizes the relevant literature and puts forward the analysis framework of this paper. Chapter four and five put forward short-term bond credit rating method and long-term bond credit rating method according to bond investors' investment idea. Chapter 6 makes empirical analysis on the bond credit rating method proposed in the first two chapters, and draws the conclusion that the whole credit rating method is effective. The seventh chapter summarizes the conclusions of this paper and puts forward some corresponding policy recommendations, in addition, the weak and weak put forward the prospects of the study of bond credit rating methods.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.51;F224

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