【摘要】：最近,美國經(jīng)濟(jì)向好與美元匯率走低形成明顯反差。本文在分析這一現(xiàn)象原因的基礎(chǔ)上,提出美元匯率中期走勢(shì)取決于三大因素,即美國經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇進(jìn)程、美國政府對(duì)短期與中長期利益的權(quán)衡、其他國家貨幣地位的變化。本文認(rèn)為,美元匯率走勢(shì)服從于美國政治和經(jīng)濟(jì)需要;在不從根本上損害美元儲(chǔ)備貨幣地位和市場(chǎng)信心的前提下,美國政府將放任美元以溫和的形式繼續(xù)貶值;美元匯率中期內(nèi)將持續(xù)處于下行通道;發(fā)生美元危機(jī)的可能性在增加。為應(yīng)對(duì)美元匯率中期走弱趨勢(shì),應(yīng)密切關(guān)注和研究美國貨幣政策變化,積極有序地調(diào)整我國外匯儲(chǔ)備資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu),深入實(shí)施市場(chǎng)多元化戰(zhàn)略和"走出去"戰(zhàn)略,積極穩(wěn)妥地推進(jìn)人民幣國際化。
[Abstract]:Recently, the U. S. economy has improved in sharp contrast to the dollar's decline. Based on the analysis of the causes of this phenomenon, this paper points out that the medium-term trend of the dollar exchange rate depends on three major factors, namely, the process of American economic recovery, the balance between the short-term and medium- and long-term benefits of the United States government, and the changes in the monetary status of other countries. This paper holds that the trend of the exchange rate of the US dollar meets the political and economic needs of the United States, and that the US government will allow the US dollar to continue to depreciate in a moderate form without fundamentally damaging the reserve currency status and market confidence of the US dollar. The dollar will remain on a downward path in the medium term; the likelihood of a dollar crisis is increasing. In order to cope with the weakening trend of US dollar exchange rate in the medium term, we should pay close attention to and study the changes of US monetary policy, actively and orderly adjust the structure of our foreign exchange reserve assets, and carry out the market diversification strategy and "going out" strategy in depth. We will actively and steadily promote the internationalization of the renminbi.
【作者單位】： 中國進(jìn)出口銀行經(jīng)濟(jì)研究部;中國國際貿(mào)易學(xué)會(huì);
【分類號(hào)】：F831.52

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