【摘要】：自1998年我國住房體制改革以來，政府出臺了一系列優(yōu)惠政策鼓勵房地產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展，形成了目前我國房地產(chǎn)市場和金融市場之間千絲萬縷的聯(lián)系，即銀行是房地產(chǎn)業(yè)資金的最大提供者，房地產(chǎn)業(yè)又為銀行的資金實現(xiàn)增值提供途徑，兩個行業(yè)互相促進，共同發(fā)展。但是在發(fā)展過程中，銀行信貸擴張致使房價上漲幅度遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過了人們收入水平的上漲幅度，導(dǎo)致銀行風(fēng)險和房地產(chǎn)信貸風(fēng)險的積聚，，以及社會問題的爆發(fā)。為此，本文希望通過研究房價波動與銀行信貸的相互關(guān)系來為房地產(chǎn)業(yè)、銀行業(yè)甚至整個經(jīng)濟的健康可持續(xù)的發(fā)展提供一定的參考。 本文在引言中介紹了此研究的背景、意義和國內(nèi)外的研究現(xiàn)狀，并對前人的研究成果進行總結(jié)和分析。在此基礎(chǔ)上，本文從理論和實證兩方面對房價波動和銀行信貸的關(guān)系進行了系統(tǒng)的論述和論證。 在理論方面，本文首先介紹了我國房地產(chǎn)市場取得的成就以及分析了發(fā)展過程中房價波動的原因；然后文章對我國銀行房地產(chǎn)信貸的狀況進行了介紹和分析；接著文章又從房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)、銀行和個人三個市場主體對房價波動與銀行信貸之間的關(guān)系進行了闡述。 在實證方面，本文不僅利用1999年1月到2010年12月的全國房價和銀行信貸的時間序列數(shù)據(jù)對全國的房價波動和銀行信貸關(guān)系進行實證分析，而且還利用30個省市的房價和銀行信貸的面板數(shù)據(jù)對區(qū)域間的兩者關(guān)系進行了實證分析，從而使本文的分析體系與過往的研究相比更加的全面。基于以上的分析，本文得出結(jié)論：從全國來看，我國房價波動與銀行信貸之間互為因果關(guān)系,房價上漲助推了銀行信貸的增加，銀行信貸的增加又反過來對房價上漲起到推波助瀾的作用。從區(qū)域來看，房價波動與銀行信貸兩者關(guān)系在東部地區(qū)表現(xiàn)得最為明顯，中部次之，西部最后。 經(jīng)過理論分析和實證驗證之后，文章在最后提出了完善我國房地產(chǎn)市場和銀行房地產(chǎn)信貸制度的四點政策建議。
[Abstract]:Since the housing system reform in our country in 1998, the government has issued a series of preferential policies to encourage the development of the real estate industry, forming the inextricable links between the real estate market and the financial market in our country. That is, the bank is the biggest provider of the real estate capital, and the real estate industry provides the way for the bank to realize the capital appreciation. The two industries promote each other and develop together. However, in the process of development, the expansion of bank credit causes the rise of house price far beyond the increase of people's income level, which leads to the accumulation of bank risk and real estate credit risk, as well as the outbreak of social problems. Therefore, this paper hopes to provide a certain reference for the healthy and sustainable development of real estate, banking and even the whole economy by studying the relationship between the fluctuation of house price and bank credit. In the introduction, this paper introduces the background, significance and current research situation of this research, and summarizes and analyzes the previous research results. On this basis, this paper systematically discusses and demonstrates the relationship between house price fluctuation and bank credit from both theoretical and empirical aspects. In theory, this paper first introduces the achievements of the real estate market in China and analyzes the reasons for the fluctuation of house prices in the process of development, and then introduces and analyzes the status of real estate credit in China's banks. Then the paper expounds the relationship between the fluctuation of house price and bank credit from the three market subjects of real estate enterprise, bank and individual. In the empirical aspect, this paper not only uses the time series data of the national house price and bank credit from January 1999 to December 2010 to make an empirical analysis on the fluctuation of house price and the relationship between bank credit and housing price in China. Moreover, the paper also makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between the two regions by using the panel data of housing prices and bank credit in 30 provinces and cities, which makes the analysis system of this paper more comprehensive than previous studies. Based on the above analysis, this paper draws a conclusion: from the national point of view, the fluctuation of house price and bank credit are causality, and the rise of house price contributes to the increase of bank credit. The increase in bank credit, in turn, contributed to the rise in house prices. From the regional point of view, the relationship between house price fluctuation and bank credit is the most obvious in the eastern region, followed by the central region, and finally in the western region. After theoretical analysis and empirical verification, the paper finally puts forward four policy recommendations to perfect the real estate market and bank real estate credit system in China.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.4;F293.3;F224

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