【摘要】：由美國次貸危機引發(fā)的國際金融危機對國際金融業(yè)和宏觀經(jīng)濟造成了極大的沖擊，歐美各國監(jiān)管當局深刻意識到了系統(tǒng)性風險巨大的破壞力，防范銀行系統(tǒng)性風險成為后金融危機時代各國理論界和監(jiān)管當局關注的焦點問題。本文的研究目的在于探討我國房地產(chǎn)金融業(yè)可能存在的系統(tǒng)性風險，以及如何通過實施有效的房地產(chǎn)金融監(jiān)管來抑制這一風險。本文首先概述了房地產(chǎn)金融監(jiān)管與銀行系統(tǒng)性風險的相關理論；并分析了當前我國房地產(chǎn)市場運行的基本特征：房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)投資規(guī)模和房價增長過快，，且房地產(chǎn)業(yè)對金融業(yè)的依賴程度加深。由于近幾年我國房地產(chǎn)市場投機氛圍嚴重，房價缺乏剛性需求的支撐，房地產(chǎn)市場存在房價泡沫破滅的風險，并可能將系統(tǒng)性風險傳導給銀行業(yè)。 本文結(jié)合我國實際分析了可能引發(fā)我國銀行系統(tǒng)性風險的宏觀沖擊因素—房價、股價、匯率、利率和GDP，進而通過Logit轉(zhuǎn)換、VAR分析以及情景壓力測試，得出房價波動相對其他宏觀經(jīng)濟因素最有可能引發(fā)銀行系統(tǒng)性風險這一結(jié)論，證明了房地產(chǎn)市場風險和銀行系統(tǒng)性風險間具有很強的關聯(lián)性�；诖�，本文提出從房地產(chǎn)金融監(jiān)管的角度來控制和防范房地產(chǎn)市場風險，以達到防范銀行系統(tǒng)性風險的目的。本文通過Granger因果檢驗證明了通過控制房地產(chǎn)貸款等金融監(jiān)管手段防范銀行系統(tǒng)性風險具有可行性。 本文分析了我國現(xiàn)有房地產(chǎn)金融監(jiān)管制度的缺陷，并以防范銀行系統(tǒng)性風險為目標，提出了完善我國房地產(chǎn)金融監(jiān)管制度的相關建議。首先要重視房地產(chǎn)金融監(jiān)管的指標化要求并引入逆周期監(jiān)管措施；其次應強化房地產(chǎn)金融監(jiān)管的責任制，這需要明確房地產(chǎn)金融的監(jiān)管主體及其職責范圍；三是建立房地產(chǎn)金融監(jiān)管的預警制度，并將宏觀壓力測試作為房地產(chǎn)金融監(jiān)管的重要工具。
[Abstract]:The international financial crisis caused by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States has had a great impact on the international financial industry and the macroeconomic. The regulatory authorities in Europe and the United States have been deeply aware of the great destructive power of systemic risks. The prevention of bank systemic risk has become the focus of attention of the theorists and regulators in the post-financial crisis era. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the possible systemic risk in China's real estate finance industry and how to restrain the risk by implementing effective real estate financial supervision. This paper first summarizes the real estate financial supervision and banking systemic risk related theory; The paper also analyzes the basic characteristics of the real estate market in our country at present: the investment scale of real estate development and housing price increase too fast, and the dependence of real estate industry on the financial industry is deepened. Because of the serious speculative atmosphere in China's real estate market in recent years and the lack of rigid demand for housing prices, the real estate market has the risk of housing price bubble burst, and may transmit the systemic risk to the banking industry. This paper analyzes the macro impact factors that may trigger the systemic risk of Chinese banks-house price, stock price, exchange rate, interest rate and GDP, through Logit conversion, VAR analysis and situational stress test. The conclusion that the fluctuation of house price is the most likely to lead to systemic risk of bank is relative to other macroeconomic factors, which proves that there is a strong correlation between the risk of real estate market and the systemic risk of bank. Based on this, this paper puts forward to control and guard against the real estate market risk from the angle of real estate financial supervision, in order to achieve the purpose of guarding against bank systemic risk. Through Granger causality test, this paper proves that it is feasible to prevent bank systemic risk by controlling financial supervision such as real estate loan. This paper analyzes the defects of the existing real estate financial supervision system in China, and puts forward some relevant suggestions to perfect the real estate financial supervision system in China, aiming at preventing the systemic risks of the banks. First of all, we should pay attention to the indexation requirements of the real estate financial supervision and introduce counter-cyclical supervision measures; secondly, we should strengthen the responsibility system of the real estate financial supervision, which needs to clarify the main body of the real estate financial supervision and its scope of responsibility. The third is to establish the early warning system of real estate financial supervision, and take macro stress test as an important tool of real estate financial supervision.
【學位授予單位】：湖南大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.1;F293.3;F224

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