【摘要】：隨著生育率的下降以及平均壽命的不斷延長，中國從2000年起就步入了老齡化社會(huì)。老齡化水平的不斷快速提高已經(jīng)成為社會(huì)各界關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)。本文在生命周期模型的框架下對(duì)城鎮(zhèn)老年人的經(jīng)濟(jì)行為進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)的實(shí)證分析。 本文首先對(duì)城鎮(zhèn)老年人的收入、消費(fèi)、儲(chǔ)蓄以及財(cái)富的生命周期變化進(jìn)行了分析。結(jié)果顯示在缺少面板數(shù)據(jù)的情況下僅僅使用橫截面方法研究老年人的收入、消費(fèi)、儲(chǔ)蓄以及財(cái)富的生命周期變化會(huì)導(dǎo)致帶有誤導(dǎo)性的結(jié)論，這是因?yàn)闄M截面分析沒有考慮組群效應(yīng)對(duì)不同年份出生的老年人口的影響。作為改進(jìn)，，本文利用所分析的數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)總體多次重復(fù)抽樣的特征采用組群分析的方法分析了城鎮(zhèn)老年人口收入、消費(fèi)、儲(chǔ)蓄以及財(cái)富的生命周期變化，結(jié)果表明城鎮(zhèn)老年人口的收入和消費(fèi)以及財(cái)富水平都隨年齡的提高而不斷提高。這意味著中國快速的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長使大部分城鎮(zhèn)老年人的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況獲得了改善。 另一方面，分析也顯示許多老年人在退休后仍然保持正的儲(chǔ)蓄水平，該現(xiàn)象與標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的生命周期模型的基本結(jié)論相矛盾。造成這種現(xiàn)象的一個(gè)可能的原因在于不確定性的存在，理論分析表明面對(duì)不確定性時(shí)消費(fèi)者會(huì)降低當(dāng)期消費(fèi)水平并進(jìn)行預(yù)防性儲(chǔ)蓄。對(duì)于老年人來講，未來的醫(yī)療支出是其所面對(duì)的不確定性的主要來源之一。實(shí)證分析的結(jié)果顯示對(duì)未來醫(yī)療支出的擔(dān)心導(dǎo)致了城鎮(zhèn)老年居民降低了消費(fèi)水平并提高了儲(chǔ)蓄率。本文還發(fā)現(xiàn)在給定其他條件不變的情況下，子女?dāng)?shù)量越多的老年人其消費(fèi)水平越低，儲(chǔ)蓄率越高，從而在一定程度上表明遺贈(zèng)動(dòng)機(jī)對(duì)城鎮(zhèn)老年居民的消費(fèi)、儲(chǔ)蓄行為產(chǎn)生了影響。 除此之外，本文還分析了退休對(duì)老年人消費(fèi)行為的影響。結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)與發(fā)達(dá)國家的消費(fèi)者類似，退休同樣會(huì)導(dǎo)致中國城鎮(zhèn)消費(fèi)者的消費(fèi)水平下降。為了分析退休導(dǎo)致消費(fèi)下降的原因，本文進(jìn)一步分析退休對(duì)不同種類消費(fèi)支出的影響，結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)退休所導(dǎo)致的消費(fèi)支出下降主要集中在與工作有關(guān)的支出方面，這就意味著退休所導(dǎo)致的消費(fèi)支出下降可能并由非未預(yù)期的負(fù)面收入沖擊造成的。同時(shí)，退休沒有導(dǎo)致消費(fèi)者的主觀幸福感下降則從另一個(gè)角度印證這種判斷。
[Abstract]:China has been aging since 2000, as fertility has fallen and life expectancy has been increasing. The rapid improvement of aging level has become the focus of attention from all walks of life. This paper makes a detailed empirical analysis of the economic behavior of the elderly in cities and towns under the framework of the life cycle model. This paper first analyzes the life cycle changes of income, consumption, savings and wealth of the elderly in cities and towns. The results show that simply using cross-sectional methods to study changes in the life cycle of income, consumption, savings, and wealth in older people without panel data can lead to misleading conclusions. This is because cross-sectional analysis does not take into account the effect of cluster effect on the elderly population born in different years. As an improvement, this paper analyzes the life cycle changes of income, consumption, savings and wealth of the elderly population in cities and towns using the cluster analysis method. The results show that the income, consumption and wealth level of urban elderly population increase with the increase of age. This means that China's rapid economic growth has improved the economic situation of the elderly in most cities and towns. On the other hand, the analysis also shows that many elderly people still maintain a positive savings level after retirement, which contradicts the basic conclusions of the standard life cycle model. One possible cause of this phenomenon is the existence of uncertainty. Theoretical analysis shows that consumers will reduce the current consumption level and make precautionary savings in the face of uncertainty. For older people, future health care spending is one of the main sources of uncertainty they face. The results of empirical analysis show that the fear of future health care expenditure leads to lower consumption level and higher savings rate of the elderly residents in cities and towns. It is also found that, given other conditions, the lower the level of consumption, the higher the savings rate of the elderly with more children, which indicates to a certain extent the consumption of the bequest motivation to the elderly residents in cities and towns. Savings behavior had an impact. In addition, this paper also analyzes the impact of retirement on the consumer behavior of the elderly. It turns out that, like consumers in developed countries, retirement also leads to lower levels of consumer spending in China's cities and towns. In order to analyze the causes of the decline in consumption caused by retirement, this paper further analyzes the impact of retirement on different types of consumer expenditure. The results show that the decline of consumer expenditure caused by retirement is mainly focused on work-related expenditure. This means that the fall in consumer spending due to retirement could be caused by unexpected negative income shocks. At the same time, retirement does not lead to a decline in consumer subjective well-being from another point of view.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國社會(huì)科學(xué)院研究生院
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F126;F832.22;F224

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