人民幣匯率與中美貿(mào)易收支關(guān)系的實(shí)證研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-10-31 09:48
【摘要】：中美兩國是當(dāng)今世界上最令人注目的兩大經(jīng)濟(jì)體,影響著世界經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的大勢,中美之間的貿(mào)易問題長期以來引起了世界各國的廣泛關(guān)注。近年來,中美貿(mào)易格局基本上是以中國的貿(mào)易順差以及美國的貿(mào)易逆差不斷攀升為基本背景的。隨著中美貿(mào)易的發(fā)展,中美之間的貿(mào)易摩擦也不斷加劇。由大量的貿(mào)易赤字導(dǎo)致美國相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)勞動崗位的流失,這使得美國國內(nèi)貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義者不斷挑起中美雙邊貿(mào)易的爭端,爭論的核心問題之一就是人民幣匯率問題。由于中國貿(mào)易順差的不斷擴(kuò)大,國際上對于人民幣匯率被操縱,人民幣幣值被低估的言論甚囂塵上。美國認(rèn)為人民幣幣值嚴(yán)重低估是造成其貿(mào)易赤字的主要原因,因此近年來,美國一再對中國施壓要求人民幣升值,以解決其嚴(yán)重的貿(mào)易赤字問題,但是人民幣匯率政策是否是導(dǎo)致中美貿(mào)易失衡的主要原因,人民幣對美元升值是否能夠成為解決問題的關(guān)鍵,值得探討。文章構(gòu)建實(shí)證分析模型,選取1995年第一季度至2010年第四季度的季度數(shù)據(jù),建立VAR模型并運(yùn)用Johansen協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)和向量誤差修正模型(VECM)等計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)方法實(shí)證分析了人民幣兌美元實(shí)際匯率與中美貿(mào)易收支之間是否具有長期和短期均衡關(guān)系,通過協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)發(fā)現(xiàn)無論是從匯率變量的t統(tǒng)計(jì)量看還是系數(shù)看,中美出口、進(jìn)口、中美貿(mào)易收支與人民幣兌美元實(shí)際匯率之間的長期均衡關(guān)系不顯著,也就是說從長期來看美國對中國施壓要求人民幣升值并不能有效地緩解美對華的貿(mào)易赤字問題。在短期內(nèi)通過向量誤差修正模型得出,人民幣兌美元實(shí)際匯率波動會對中美之間的出口、進(jìn)口和貿(mào)易收支產(chǎn)生一定的影響,但是這種影響會在較短時(shí)間內(nèi)消失,進(jìn)而恢復(fù)到長期均衡狀態(tài)�？偠灾�,不論是長期效應(yīng)還是短期影響,人民幣兌美元實(shí)際匯率波動都不能對中美出口、進(jìn)口和中美貿(mào)易收支產(chǎn)生較大的影響,人民幣升值并不能逆轉(zhuǎn)中美貿(mào)易不平衡的現(xiàn)狀,進(jìn)而驗(yàn)證了美國給中國施壓要求人民幣升值是另有他因,而并非為了緩解中美之間的貿(mào)易摩擦問題。中國和美國的國內(nèi)需求是影響中美貿(mào)易收支的主要因素,其中美國的國內(nèi)需求對中美貿(mào)易不平衡起決定性作用。最后,本文分析了中美貿(mào)易失衡的主要原因,并對如何緩解中美貿(mào)易不平衡提出政策建議。
[Abstract]:China and the United States are the two most remarkable economies in the world today, which affect the development of the world economy. The trade between China and the United States has long been the focus of attention in the world. In recent years, the trade pattern between China and the United States is basically based on China's trade surplus and the rising trade deficit of the United States. With the development of Sino-American trade, the trade frictions between the two countries are becoming more and more serious. A large trade deficit has led to the loss of jobs in related industries in the United States, which has led to domestic trade protectionism incessantly provoking disputes between China and the United States in bilateral trade. One of the core issues of the dispute is the issue of the RMB exchange rate. As China's trade surplus continues to expand, international talk of currency manipulation and undervaluation of the yuan is rife. The United States believes that the serious undervaluation of the renminbi is the main cause of its trade deficit. Therefore, in recent years, the United States has repeatedly pressed China to appreciate the renminbi in order to solve its serious trade deficit problem. But whether the yuan exchange rate policy is the main cause of the trade imbalance between China and the United States, and whether the appreciation of the yuan against the dollar will be the key to solving the problem, is worth discussing. This paper constructs an empirical analysis model and selects the quarterly data from the first quarter of 1995 to the fourth quarter of 2010. The VAR model is established and econometrics methods such as Johansen cointegration test and vector error correction model (VECM) are used to empirically analyze whether there is a long-term and short-term equilibrium relationship between RMB / US dollar real exchange rate and Sino-US trade balance. Through cointegration test, it is found that the long-term equilibrium relationship between Sino-American exports, imports, Sino-US trade balance and the real exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is not significant in terms of the t statistics of the exchange rate variables or the coefficient. In other words, in the long run, U.S. pressure on China to revalue the yuan will not be effective in alleviating the U.S. trade deficit with China. In the short term, vector error correction model shows that the real exchange rate fluctuations of RMB / US dollar will have a certain impact on exports, imports and trade balance between China and the United States, but this effect will disappear in a relatively short period of time. And then return to the long-term equilibrium state. In a word, no matter whether it is a long-term effect or a short-term effect, the fluctuations in the real exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar cannot have a greater impact on Sino-US exports, imports, and Sino-US trade balance. The appreciation of the yuan does not reverse the trade imbalance between China and the United States, confirming that there is another reason why the United States is pressuring China to appreciate, not to ease trade frictions between China and the United States. The domestic demand of China and the United States is the main factor influencing the trade balance between China and the United States, and the domestic demand of the United States plays a decisive role in the trade imbalance between China and the United States. Finally, this paper analyzes the main causes of the trade imbalance between China and the United States, and puts forward policy recommendations on how to alleviate the trade imbalance between China and the United States.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：延邊大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.6;F752.7;F224
[Abstract]:China and the United States are the two most remarkable economies in the world today, which affect the development of the world economy. The trade between China and the United States has long been the focus of attention in the world. In recent years, the trade pattern between China and the United States is basically based on China's trade surplus and the rising trade deficit of the United States. With the development of Sino-American trade, the trade frictions between the two countries are becoming more and more serious. A large trade deficit has led to the loss of jobs in related industries in the United States, which has led to domestic trade protectionism incessantly provoking disputes between China and the United States in bilateral trade. One of the core issues of the dispute is the issue of the RMB exchange rate. As China's trade surplus continues to expand, international talk of currency manipulation and undervaluation of the yuan is rife. The United States believes that the serious undervaluation of the renminbi is the main cause of its trade deficit. Therefore, in recent years, the United States has repeatedly pressed China to appreciate the renminbi in order to solve its serious trade deficit problem. But whether the yuan exchange rate policy is the main cause of the trade imbalance between China and the United States, and whether the appreciation of the yuan against the dollar will be the key to solving the problem, is worth discussing. This paper constructs an empirical analysis model and selects the quarterly data from the first quarter of 1995 to the fourth quarter of 2010. The VAR model is established and econometrics methods such as Johansen cointegration test and vector error correction model (VECM) are used to empirically analyze whether there is a long-term and short-term equilibrium relationship between RMB / US dollar real exchange rate and Sino-US trade balance. Through cointegration test, it is found that the long-term equilibrium relationship between Sino-American exports, imports, Sino-US trade balance and the real exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is not significant in terms of the t statistics of the exchange rate variables or the coefficient. In other words, in the long run, U.S. pressure on China to revalue the yuan will not be effective in alleviating the U.S. trade deficit with China. In the short term, vector error correction model shows that the real exchange rate fluctuations of RMB / US dollar will have a certain impact on exports, imports and trade balance between China and the United States, but this effect will disappear in a relatively short period of time. And then return to the long-term equilibrium state. In a word, no matter whether it is a long-term effect or a short-term effect, the fluctuations in the real exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar cannot have a greater impact on Sino-US exports, imports, and Sino-US trade balance. The appreciation of the yuan does not reverse the trade imbalance between China and the United States, confirming that there is another reason why the United States is pressuring China to appreciate, not to ease trade frictions between China and the United States. The domestic demand of China and the United States is the main factor influencing the trade balance between China and the United States, and the domestic demand of the United States plays a decisive role in the trade imbalance between China and the United States. Finally, this paper analyzes the main causes of the trade imbalance between China and the United States, and puts forward policy recommendations on how to alleviate the trade imbalance between China and the United States.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：延邊大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.6;F752.7;F224
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