【摘要】：公司財務(wù)困境預(yù)警是公司財務(wù)管理的重要研究領(lǐng)域之一。財務(wù)困境的發(fā)生是一個漸進的過程，因此財務(wù)困境發(fā)生之前是有征兆，并且是可以預(yù)測的。本文以我國在滬深兩市上市的A股制造業(yè)公司為研究對象，研究的主要目的是建立一個公司財務(wù)困境預(yù)警模型并用于預(yù)測。 本文把因財務(wù)狀況異常而被ST作為公司陷入財務(wù)困境的界定標準，并依據(jù)此標準選取了2009-2011年因財務(wù)狀況異常而被ST的41家A股制造業(yè)上市公司作為樣本并對其進行1:2配對，即選擇了41家ST公司和82家非ST公司作為建模樣本。本文選取2012年的A股制造業(yè)公司作為檢驗樣本，對模型進行檢驗，最后利用模型預(yù)測2013年陷入財務(wù)困境可能性較大的上市制造業(yè)公司。 在指標的選取上，本文選取了財務(wù)指標，并引入公司治理方面的非財務(wù)指標，，使用Logistic回歸模型分別構(gòu)建財務(wù)困境預(yù)警模型。研究結(jié)果顯示，引入公司治理指標后模型的解釋力和預(yù)測準確率均有所提高，公司治理指標在財務(wù)困境方面也具有一定的預(yù)警作用。
[Abstract]:Early warning of corporate financial distress is one of the important research fields of corporate financial management. The occurrence of financial distress is a gradual process, so there are signs of financial distress before it occurs, and it can be predicted. In this paper, A share manufacturing companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets are taken as the research object. The main purpose of this study is to establish an early warning model of corporate financial distress and apply it to forecast. In this paper, ST is regarded as the definition standard of financial distress because of abnormal financial situation. According to this criterion, 41 A-share manufacturing companies listed by ST in 2009-2011 are selected as samples and matched at 1:2. That is, 41 ST companies and 82 non-ST companies were selected as modeling samples. In this paper, A share manufacturing companies in 2012 are selected as test samples to test the model. Finally, the model is used to predict the listed manufacturing companies that are likely to be in financial distress in 2013. In the selection of indicators, this paper selects the financial indicators, and introduces the non-financial indicators of corporate governance, using the Logistic regression model to build the financial distress warning model. The results show that the explanatory power and prediction accuracy of the model are improved after the introduction of corporate governance indicators, and the corporate governance indicators also play a certain role in early warning of financial distress.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F275;F832.51

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