近期中國通貨膨脹主要誘因研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-10-19 07:47
【摘要】：2007年，金融危機(jī)在世界范圍內(nèi)爆發(fā)，為了應(yīng)對由此引發(fā)的經(jīng)濟(jì)問題，各國政府都采取了一系列刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)的政策。隨著全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的逐步復(fù)蘇，新一輪的通貨膨脹又在世界范圍內(nèi)爆發(fā)。在這樣的國際背景下，中國也難以獨(dú)善其身，通貨膨脹問題嚴(yán)重影響著人民的日常生活和國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展。因此，，正確的認(rèn)識通貨膨脹問題，找出造成本輪通貨膨脹的原因，并進(jìn)行有針對性的治理，對于恢復(fù)和推動中國經(jīng)濟(jì)快速、持續(xù)、健康的發(fā)展，具有非常重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 文章通過回顧通貨膨脹的相關(guān)理論和研究中國改革開放以來歷次通貨膨脹的經(jīng)濟(jì)情況，結(jié)合目前的國際背景，總結(jié)了中國新一輪的通貨膨脹與前幾次通貨膨脹的區(qū)別和聯(lián)系。再由此進(jìn)行進(jìn)一步的理論分析，提出可能引發(fā)通貨膨脹的各種經(jīng)濟(jì)因素，并分析每個因素導(dǎo)致通貨膨脹的途徑。其中，文章創(chuàng)造性的考察了結(jié)構(gòu)化因素對于通貨膨脹的影響。 然后文章采用月度數(shù)據(jù)，對上述可能引發(fā)通貨膨脹的經(jīng)濟(jì)因素進(jìn)行了深入的實(shí)證研究。在整個實(shí)證分析過程中，使用到了單位根檢驗(yàn)、Granger因果檢驗(yàn)、Johansen協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、向量誤差修正模型、脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)與方差分解等方法。并通過數(shù)據(jù)與圖、表等多角度進(jìn)行觀察，力圖使整個分析過程細(xì)致、清楚。 通過理論分析與實(shí)證分析，文章最終得出如下結(jié)論：在長期中，原料價(jià)格的上漲，人民幣兌美元匯率的升高，經(jīng)濟(jì)中的結(jié)構(gòu)化差異，貨幣超發(fā)以及進(jìn)出口問題都是導(dǎo)致本輪通貨膨脹的原因。而在短期內(nèi)，以外匯儲備為代表的外部沖擊對通貨膨脹造成的影響最為明顯。同時(shí)，新一輪的通貨膨脹存在巨大的慣性作用。此外，需要注意的是投資因素對于通貨膨脹的影響仍然不容忽視。因此，對于本輪通貨膨脹問題的治理應(yīng)該主要針對上述的主要因素，采取有效的措施。
[Abstract]:In 2007, the financial crisis broke out all over the world. In order to deal with the economic problems caused by it, governments adopted a series of policies to stimulate the economy. With the gradual recovery of the global economy, a new round of inflation broke out around the world. In this international context, China is also difficult to escape, inflation seriously affects the daily life of the people and the development of the national economy. Therefore, the correct understanding of inflation, to find out the causes of this round of inflation, and to carry out targeted governance, to restore and promote the rapid, sustained and healthy development of China's economy, has a very important practical significance. By reviewing the relevant theories of inflation and studying the economic situation of China's previous inflation since the reform and opening up, this paper sums up the differences and relations between China's new round of inflation and the previous inflation in light of the current international background. Then further theoretical analysis is carried out, and various economic factors which may lead to inflation are put forward, and the ways for each factor to lead to inflation are analyzed. Among them, the article creatively examines the influence of structural factors on inflation. Then the paper makes an in-depth empirical study on the economic factors that may lead to inflation using monthly data. In the whole process of empirical analysis, the methods of unit root test, Granger causality test, Johansen cointegration test, vector error correction model, impulse response function and variance decomposition are used. And through data, diagram, table and other angles to observe, trying to make the whole analysis process meticulous and clear. Through theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, the paper finally draws the following conclusions: in the long run, the rise of raw material prices, the rise of RMB / US dollar exchange rate, the structural differences in the economy, Currency overissuance and import and export problems are the causes of this round of inflation. In the short-term, the impact of external shocks, represented by foreign exchange reserves, on inflation is the most obvious. At the same time, the new round of inflation has a huge inertia. In addition, it is important to note that the impact of investment factors on inflation still can not be ignored. Therefore, for the current round of inflation management should be aimed at the above main factors, take effective measures.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：遼寧大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F822.5;F224
本文編號：2280559
[Abstract]:In 2007, the financial crisis broke out all over the world. In order to deal with the economic problems caused by it, governments adopted a series of policies to stimulate the economy. With the gradual recovery of the global economy, a new round of inflation broke out around the world. In this international context, China is also difficult to escape, inflation seriously affects the daily life of the people and the development of the national economy. Therefore, the correct understanding of inflation, to find out the causes of this round of inflation, and to carry out targeted governance, to restore and promote the rapid, sustained and healthy development of China's economy, has a very important practical significance. By reviewing the relevant theories of inflation and studying the economic situation of China's previous inflation since the reform and opening up, this paper sums up the differences and relations between China's new round of inflation and the previous inflation in light of the current international background. Then further theoretical analysis is carried out, and various economic factors which may lead to inflation are put forward, and the ways for each factor to lead to inflation are analyzed. Among them, the article creatively examines the influence of structural factors on inflation. Then the paper makes an in-depth empirical study on the economic factors that may lead to inflation using monthly data. In the whole process of empirical analysis, the methods of unit root test, Granger causality test, Johansen cointegration test, vector error correction model, impulse response function and variance decomposition are used. And through data, diagram, table and other angles to observe, trying to make the whole analysis process meticulous and clear. Through theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, the paper finally draws the following conclusions: in the long run, the rise of raw material prices, the rise of RMB / US dollar exchange rate, the structural differences in the economy, Currency overissuance and import and export problems are the causes of this round of inflation. In the short-term, the impact of external shocks, represented by foreign exchange reserves, on inflation is the most obvious. At the same time, the new round of inflation has a huge inertia. In addition, it is important to note that the impact of investment factors on inflation still can not be ignored. Therefore, for the current round of inflation management should be aimed at the above main factors, take effective measures.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：遼寧大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F822.5;F224
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