【摘要】：中國(guó)政府大規(guī)模支出應(yīng)對(duì)這次影響深遠(yuǎn)的金融危機(jī),但這種積極的財(cái)政投入會(huì)不會(huì)擠出外商直接投資?就目前來看,學(xué)術(shù)界對(duì)此問題缺乏令人信服的深入研究。本文針對(duì)此問題進(jìn)行實(shí)證檢驗(yàn),以期能較好回答政府支出是否會(huì)擠出FDI。研究結(jié)果揭示,二者之間不僅存在協(xié)整關(guān)系,還存在單向的格蘭杰因果關(guān)系,即FDI是政府?dāng)U大支出的格蘭杰原因,而政府?dāng)U大支出并不是引致FDI流入的格蘭杰原因。這說明總體來看,政府支出不是擠出FDI的內(nèi)在原因,但兩者存在的負(fù)向協(xié)整關(guān)系說明,政府支出對(duì)FDI的抑制作用還是客觀存在的。此外,本文還進(jìn)一步把政府支出分成幾個(gè)部分來分別檢驗(yàn)其與FDI的關(guān)系,實(shí)證結(jié)果顯示,政府生產(chǎn)性支出會(huì)明顯擠出FDI,而科研支出不僅不會(huì)擠出反而對(duì)擠入FDI有積極意義。
[Abstract]:China's massive government spending to cope with this far-reaching financial crisis, but this kind of positive financial investment will crowd out foreign direct investment? At present, the academic community lacks convincing in-depth research on this issue. This paper makes an empirical test on this question in order to better answer whether government expenditure will crowd out FDI.. The results show that there is not only cointegration relationship but also one-way Granger causality between the two, that is, FDI is the Granger cause of the government's expanded expenditure, and the government's expanded expenditure is not the Granger's cause of FDI inflow. This shows that government expenditure is not the internal reason of squeezing out FDI, but the negative cointegration between them indicates that the restraining effect of government expenditure on FDI still exists objectively. In addition, this paper further divides the government expenditure into several parts to test its relationship with FDI separately. The empirical results show that the government productive expenditure will obviously squeeze out FDI, but the scientific research expenditure will not squeeze out but have positive significance for crowding into FDI.
【作者單位】： 廈門大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所;
【基金】：國(guó)家社會(huì)科學(xué)基金重大項(xiàng)目(批準(zhǔn)號(hào):08&ZD034) 國(guó)家社會(huì)科學(xué)基金一般項(xiàng)目(批準(zhǔn)號(hào):09BJL002)的前期研究成果
【分類號(hào)】：F224;F812.45;F832.6

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本文編號(hào)：2266445