大規(guī)模政府支出真的會擠出FDI嗎——基于兩者因果關(guān)系的實證研究與結(jié)構(gòu)檢驗
發(fā)布時間：2018-10-12 14:18
【摘要】：中國政府大規(guī)模支出應(yīng)對這次影響深遠(yuǎn)的金融危機,但這種積極的財政投入會不會擠出外商直接投資?就目前來看,學(xué)術(shù)界對此問題缺乏令人信服的深入研究。本文針對此問題進(jìn)行實證檢驗,以期能較好回答政府支出是否會擠出FDI。研究結(jié)果揭示,二者之間不僅存在協(xié)整關(guān)系,還存在單向的格蘭杰因果關(guān)系,即FDI是政府?dāng)U大支出的格蘭杰原因,而政府?dāng)U大支出并不是引致FDI流入的格蘭杰原因。這說明總體來看,政府支出不是擠出FDI的內(nèi)在原因,但兩者存在的負(fù)向協(xié)整關(guān)系說明,政府支出對FDI的抑制作用還是客觀存在的。此外,本文還進(jìn)一步把政府支出分成幾個部分來分別檢驗其與FDI的關(guān)系,實證結(jié)果顯示,政府生產(chǎn)性支出會明顯擠出FDI,而科研支出不僅不會擠出反而對擠入FDI有積極意義。
[Abstract]:China's massive government spending to cope with this far-reaching financial crisis, but this kind of positive financial investment will crowd out foreign direct investment? At present, the academic community lacks convincing in-depth research on this issue. This paper makes an empirical test on this question in order to better answer whether government expenditure will crowd out FDI.. The results show that there is not only cointegration relationship but also one-way Granger causality between the two, that is, FDI is the Granger cause of the government's expanded expenditure, and the government's expanded expenditure is not the Granger's cause of FDI inflow. This shows that government expenditure is not the internal reason of squeezing out FDI, but the negative cointegration between them indicates that the restraining effect of government expenditure on FDI still exists objectively. In addition, this paper further divides the government expenditure into several parts to test its relationship with FDI separately. The empirical results show that the government productive expenditure will obviously squeeze out FDI, but the scientific research expenditure will not squeeze out but have positive significance for crowding into FDI.
【作者單位】： 廈門大學(xué)經(jīng)濟研究所;
【基金】：國家社會科學(xué)基金重大項目(批準(zhǔn)號:08&ZD034) 國家社會科學(xué)基金一般項目(批準(zhǔn)號:09BJL002)的前期研究成果
【分類號】：F224;F812.45;F832.6
[Abstract]:China's massive government spending to cope with this far-reaching financial crisis, but this kind of positive financial investment will crowd out foreign direct investment? At present, the academic community lacks convincing in-depth research on this issue. This paper makes an empirical test on this question in order to better answer whether government expenditure will crowd out FDI.. The results show that there is not only cointegration relationship but also one-way Granger causality between the two, that is, FDI is the Granger cause of the government's expanded expenditure, and the government's expanded expenditure is not the Granger's cause of FDI inflow. This shows that government expenditure is not the internal reason of squeezing out FDI, but the negative cointegration between them indicates that the restraining effect of government expenditure on FDI still exists objectively. In addition, this paper further divides the government expenditure into several parts to test its relationship with FDI separately. The empirical results show that the government productive expenditure will obviously squeeze out FDI, but the scientific research expenditure will not squeeze out but have positive significance for crowding into FDI.
【作者單位】： 廈門大學(xué)經(jīng)濟研究所;
【基金】：國家社會科學(xué)基金重大項目(批準(zhǔn)號:08&ZD034) 國家社會科學(xué)基金一般項目(批準(zhǔn)號:09BJL002)的前期研究成果
【分類號】：F224;F812.45;F832.6
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