【摘要】：從中國(guó)2005年7月21日人民幣匯率制度實(shí)行以市場(chǎng)供求為基礎(chǔ)、參考一籃子貨幣進(jìn)行調(diào)節(jié)，有管理的浮動(dòng)匯率制度以來(lái)，人民幣匯率呈現(xiàn)雙向波動(dòng)，長(zhǎng)期升值的趨勢(shì)。在人民幣持續(xù)升值的七年多的時(shí)間內(nèi)，中國(guó)總體還是分行業(yè)的貿(mào)易收支順差較大狀況并沒(méi)有逆轉(zhuǎn)，某些行業(yè)貿(mào)易順差還有不斷增加的趨勢(shì)，特別是我國(guó)機(jī)電產(chǎn)品、化學(xué)工業(yè)產(chǎn)品等出口增長(zhǎng)上升趨勢(shì)明顯�？偟膩�(lái)看，中國(guó)貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)不斷改善，但不同類別行業(yè)發(fā)展速度存在差異。傳統(tǒng)的國(guó)際收支理論無(wú)法解釋這種現(xiàn)象。本文利用匯率不完全傳遞理論考察不同出口行業(yè)特殊的市場(chǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)和產(chǎn)業(yè)組織結(jié)構(gòu)以及企業(yè)微觀定價(jià)行為來(lái)進(jìn)行分析，以期得到人民幣升值對(duì)中國(guó)出口商品價(jià)格的傳導(dǎo)效應(yīng)及其原因。為出口企業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)嫁匯率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、提高競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力提出應(yīng)對(duì)措施，同時(shí)為中國(guó)的匯率政策、出口貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)略、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)方式以及貨幣政策提出指導(dǎo)性的政策建議。 本文基于HS商品分類下12類主要制造業(yè)商品從2005年7月到2011年12月的數(shù)據(jù)，利用面板數(shù)據(jù)模型，實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)了人民幣匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)不同行業(yè)出口商品價(jià)格傳遞彈性的差異�？傮w而言，在人民幣升值期間，各行業(yè)的匯率傳遞效應(yīng)是不完全的，出口商都通過(guò)降低本幣出口價(jià)格吸收了一部分匯率變動(dòng)。分行業(yè)來(lái)看，匯率對(duì)傳統(tǒng)的勞動(dòng)密集型產(chǎn)品出口價(jià)格傳遞彈性較小，匯率對(duì)我國(guó)主要資本技術(shù)含量較高的制造業(yè)類產(chǎn)品出口價(jià)格傳遞彈性較大。在進(jìn)一步考慮匯率及技術(shù)創(chuàng)新會(huì)降低生產(chǎn)成本影響因素后，發(fā)現(xiàn)大部分出口產(chǎn)品匯率彈性減小。 基于理論與實(shí)證的研究基礎(chǔ)，結(jié)合中國(guó)不同行業(yè)的實(shí)際情況，，本文從出口產(chǎn)品的市場(chǎng)勢(shì)力、對(duì)國(guó)外市場(chǎng)的依賴程度、出口產(chǎn)品競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)多方面探討了人民幣匯率不完全傳遞的原因。在此基礎(chǔ)上，本文提出我國(guó)出口企業(yè)在轉(zhuǎn)嫁匯率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)能力較低的情況下，通過(guò)增加原材料進(jìn)口、提高市場(chǎng)集中度、增強(qiáng)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新能力減少成本是可行的措施。從根本上來(lái)說(shuō)，只有進(jìn)一步完善人民幣匯率形成機(jī)制，調(diào)整我國(guó)出口貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)略，轉(zhuǎn)變我國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)方式，包括通過(guò)有效提高內(nèi)需、轉(zhuǎn)變高投入、高消耗增長(zhǎng)方式、增強(qiáng)自主創(chuàng)新能力，提高經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的質(zhì)量和效益等，才能實(shí)現(xiàn)我國(guó)內(nèi)外經(jīng)濟(jì)的平衡發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:Since the RMB exchange rate system was implemented in China on July 21, 2005, based on the market supply and demand, with reference to a basket of currencies to adjust, the managed floating exchange rate system has shown a trend of two-way fluctuations and long-term appreciation. During the more than seven years of continuous appreciation of the RMB, China's overall trade surplus has not been reversed by industry, and the trade surplus in some industries has continued to increase, especially in China's machinery and electrical products. Chemical industrial products and other export growth trend is obvious. Overall, China's trade structure continues to improve, but there are differences in the speed of development of different categories of industries. Traditional balance of payments theory can not explain this phenomenon. Based on the exchange rate incomplete transfer theory, this paper analyzes the special market structure and industrial organization structure of different export industries, as well as the micro pricing behavior of enterprises. In order to obtain the RMB appreciation of China's export commodity price conduction effect and its reasons. The paper puts forward some countermeasures for export enterprises to pass on exchange rate risk and improve competitiveness, at the same time, it puts forward some guiding policy suggestions for China's exchange rate policy, export trade strategy, economic growth mode and monetary policy. Based on the data from July 2005 to December 2011 of 12 kinds of main manufacturing commodities under HS commodity classification, this paper empirically tests the difference between RMB exchange rate change and price transfer elasticity of export commodities in different industries by using panel data model. Overall, the effect of exchange rate transmission across sectors was incomplete during the appreciation of the yuan, with exporters absorbing some of the exchange rate movements by lowering export prices in their currencies. By industry, the exchange rate has less elasticity to the export price of the traditional labor-intensive products, and the exchange rate has a greater elasticity to the export price of the manufacturing products with higher capital and technology content. After further consideration of exchange rate and technological innovation, it is found that the exchange rate elasticity of most export products is reduced. Based on the theoretical and empirical research basis, combined with the actual situation of different industries in China, this paper from the market power of export products, the degree of dependence on foreign markets, This paper discusses the reasons of incomplete transmission of RMB exchange rate from many aspects of competitive advantage of export products. On this basis, this paper puts forward that it is feasible to increase the import of raw materials, increase the market concentration and enhance the ability of technological innovation to reduce the cost of the export enterprises in our country under the condition that the transfer of exchange rate risk ability is low. Fundamentally speaking, only by further improving the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, adjusting our export trade strategy, and transforming our country's economic growth mode, including by effectively increasing domestic demand, changing the pattern of high investment and high consumption, Only by enhancing the ability of independent innovation and improving the quality and benefit of economic growth can we achieve balanced economic development at home and abroad.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F752.62;F832.6;F224

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