【摘要】：改革開放以來,我國房地產(chǎn)市場經(jīng)歷了從無到有,從小到大的發(fā)展歷程。尤其是近十年來房地產(chǎn)業(yè)快速發(fā)展,在國民經(jīng)濟中的比重不斷提升,已經(jīng)成為推動我國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的重要因素之一。房地產(chǎn)市場的發(fā)展和深化完善了我國貨幣政策的資產(chǎn)價格傳導機制,彌補了股票市場作為主要資產(chǎn)價格傳導途徑的不足,擴大了貨幣政策調(diào)控實體經(jīng)濟的范圍,但貨幣政策傳導機制隨著傳導途徑的拓寬和傳導主體的增加變得更加復雜,貨幣當局在實施貨幣政策對宏觀經(jīng)濟進行調(diào)控時的難度也會隨之加大。美國次貸危機的爆發(fā)使得全世界各方面尤其是貨幣當局重新考慮貨幣政策、房地產(chǎn)市場以及實體經(jīng)濟之間的關系。因此,本文通過實證方法來研究我國房地產(chǎn)市場在貨幣政策傳導機制中的作用,并針對我國貨幣政策房地產(chǎn)價格傳導機制中存在的阻礙因素提出相關的政策建議,以完善貨幣政策和房地產(chǎn)市場,進而提高貨幣政策的有效性。 正文部分首先從理論上對貨幣政策房地產(chǎn)價格傳導機制的各個環(huán)節(jié)進行了詳細闡述,建立其分析框架。理論部分分別對貨幣政策房地產(chǎn)價格傳導機制的前后兩個環(huán)節(jié),即貨幣政策變動對房地產(chǎn)價格的影響和房地產(chǎn)價格變動對實體經(jīng)濟的影響進行了理論闡述。第一個環(huán)節(jié)表現(xiàn)貨幣政策通過利率、信貸和資產(chǎn)組合效應三條途徑將貨幣政策的變化傳遞給房地產(chǎn)市場進而引起房地產(chǎn)價格的變動。第二個環(huán)節(jié)表現(xiàn)為房地產(chǎn)價格的變動對實體經(jīng)濟中的消費、投資和通貨膨脹的影響。 然后在實證部分,運用協(xié)整分析、Granger因果檢驗以及脈沖響應函數(shù)等計量方法對以上兩個傳導環(huán)節(jié)中的各種效應進行了實證檢驗。從實證的結果來看,總體上房地產(chǎn)價格能夠?qū)⒇泿耪叩淖兓瘋鬟f給實體經(jīng)濟,這表明房地產(chǎn)價格已經(jīng)成為我國貨幣政策傳導的一條重要渠道。第一個環(huán)節(jié)中,貨幣供應量和信貸對房地產(chǎn)價格的影響為正且顯著,利率對房地產(chǎn)價格的影響為負,但利率調(diào)控效果不顯著。這表明相對于利率,貨幣當局通過控制貨幣供應量和銀行信貸對房地產(chǎn)價格進行調(diào)控將更為有效。第二個環(huán)節(jié)中,房地產(chǎn)價格的上漲對消費沒有刺激作用反而有微弱且不顯著的抑制作用,對投資和通貨膨脹都有明顯的正向作用。 在正文的最后部分進一步分析了我國貨幣政策房地產(chǎn)價格傳導機制中存在的阻礙因素,并提出了改革和完善貨幣政策體系、發(fā)展和完善房地產(chǎn)市場等相關對策建議。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's real estate market has experienced from scratch, from small to large development process. Especially the rapid development of real estate industry in the past ten years and the increasing proportion of real estate industry in the national economy have become one of the important factors to promote the economic development of our country. The development and deepening of the real estate market has improved the asset price transmission mechanism of China's monetary policy, made up for the deficiency of the stock market as the main path of asset price transmission, and expanded the scope of monetary policy to regulate and control the real economy. However, the transmission mechanism of monetary policy becomes more complex with the widening of transmission channels and the increase of transmission subjects, and the difficulty of monetary authorities in implementing monetary policy to regulate and control the macro-economy will increase. The outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States has made all aspects of the world, especially the monetary authorities, reconsider the relationship among monetary policy, real estate market and the real economy. Therefore, this paper studies the role of China's real estate market in the monetary policy transmission mechanism through empirical methods, and puts forward relevant policy recommendations in view of the obstacles existing in the monetary policy real estate price transmission mechanism. In order to improve the monetary policy and the real estate market, and then improve the effectiveness of monetary policy. In the main part of the paper, the theoretical analysis of the real estate price transmission mechanism of monetary policy is discussed in detail, and the analytical framework is established. In the theoretical part, two links of the transmission mechanism of real estate price of monetary policy, that is, the influence of the change of monetary policy on the real estate price and the influence of the change of real estate price on the real economy, are discussed in theory. The first link shows that monetary policy transfers the change of monetary policy to the real estate market through interest rate credit and portfolio effect and then causes the real estate price to change. The second link is the impact of real estate price changes on consumption, investment and inflation in the real economy. Then, in the empirical part, the Granger causality test and impulse response function are used to test the effects of these two transmission links. From the empirical results, as a whole, the real estate price can transfer the change of monetary policy to the real economy, which indicates that the real estate price has become an important channel of monetary policy transmission in China. In the first link, the influence of money supply and credit on real estate price is positive and significant, interest rate has negative effect on real estate price, but the effect of interest rate regulation is not significant. This suggests that the monetary authorities will be more effective in regulating property prices by controlling money supply and bank credit than interest rates. In the second link, the rise of real estate prices does not stimulate consumption, but has a weak and insignificant restraining effect, and has a significant positive effect on both investment and inflation. In the last part of the text, the author further analyzes the obstructing factors in the real estate price transmission mechanism of monetary policy in China, and puts forward some relevant countermeasures and suggestions, such as reforming and perfecting the monetary policy system, developing and perfecting the real estate market and so on.
【學位授予單位】：天津財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F293.3;F822.0;F224

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