【摘要】：隨著我國經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長,我國國際收支連續(xù)出現(xiàn)雙順差,導(dǎo)致外匯儲(chǔ)備越來越多。2006年2月,我國外匯儲(chǔ)備超過日本,成為全球持有外匯儲(chǔ)備最多的國家。外匯儲(chǔ)備的增加,導(dǎo)致外匯市場上外匯供給大于外匯需求。為了維護(hù)匯率的穩(wěn)定,中央銀行會(huì)大量投放本幣買入外匯。這樣一來,形成了大量的外匯占款。外匯占款的產(chǎn)生會(huì)使央行被動(dòng)增加基礎(chǔ)貨幣投放,如果中央銀行不采取任何沖銷措施,那么會(huì)導(dǎo)致社會(huì)總貨幣供應(yīng)量的增加,最終引起物價(jià)的上漲。由于我國實(shí)行的是有管理的浮動(dòng)匯率制度,針對(duì)外匯市場上過多的外匯,央行會(huì)為了維持匯率的穩(wěn)定,實(shí)施相應(yīng)的干預(yù)措施。通過回顧歷年我國中央銀行采取的外匯沖銷措施,分析其外匯沖銷措施的實(shí)施情況,發(fā)現(xiàn)我國外匯沖銷措施不能完全對(duì)沖因外匯占款引起的流動(dòng)性過剩,外匯沖銷措施在短期內(nèi)有效,但長期內(nèi)沖銷作用很小,甚至?xí)䦟?duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生一定的負(fù)效應(yīng)。 另一方面,我國物價(jià)水平也在改革開放后呈現(xiàn)不斷波動(dòng)的趨勢。特別是最近兒年,物價(jià)上漲幅度較大,已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)通貨膨脹的壓力。物價(jià)水平的波動(dòng)不僅影響了居民的日常生活,而且還波及到企業(yè)及社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的各個(gè)方面,從而影響我國經(jīng)濟(jì)的平穩(wěn)發(fā)展。物價(jià)的穩(wěn)定不僅是每位居民茶余飯后關(guān)注的熱點(diǎn),而且也是國家宏觀調(diào)控的重要目標(biāo)。 那么,在外匯儲(chǔ)備劇增的背景下,物價(jià)水平的波動(dòng)是否與外匯儲(chǔ)備增加有關(guān),二者存在怎樣的關(guān)系,或者關(guān)系有多大等這些問題就尤其值得關(guān)注。因此,針對(duì)外匯儲(chǔ)備的增加與物價(jià)水平的波動(dòng)關(guān)系,本文運(yùn)用理論與實(shí)證分析的方法,借鑒了相關(guān)理論：貨幣供給理論、通貨膨脹理論和外匯沖銷理論,選取2001年—2011年的季度數(shù)據(jù),通過協(xié)整分析、誤差修止模型和脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)的實(shí)證分析最終得出結(jié)論。在短期內(nèi),外匯儲(chǔ)備的變動(dòng)與物價(jià)波動(dòng)之間的關(guān)系不顯著。這主要是因?yàn)殡S著外匯儲(chǔ)備的增加,央行會(huì)相應(yīng)的采取貨幣沖銷政策來干預(yù)因外匯占款增加而導(dǎo)致的貨幣供應(yīng)量的被動(dòng)增加。另外,金融制度改革不夠徹底,資本市場不夠完善導(dǎo)致外匯儲(chǔ)備、貨幣供給、物價(jià)波動(dòng)與利率波動(dòng)之間的反饋渠道受堵。同時(shí),貨幣投放的變化不一定引起利率變化。因?yàn)槲覈蔬�沒有實(shí)現(xiàn)完全意義上的市場化,資本項(xiàng)目也沒有完全開放,因而利率與資本項(xiàng)目之間的傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制受阻。另外,我國匯率的波動(dòng)也在一定程度上削弱了外匯儲(chǔ)備對(duì)通貨膨脹的影響。但是,在長期內(nèi),因?yàn)檠胄袑?duì)沖操作空間的有限性和對(duì)沖工具運(yùn)用帶來的負(fù)效應(yīng),央行不可能對(duì)因外匯儲(chǔ)備增加所導(dǎo)致的基礎(chǔ)貨幣的增加進(jìn)行完全對(duì)沖。因此,在外匯沖銷措施無效的情況下,物價(jià)水平的波動(dòng)會(huì)因?yàn)橥鈪R儲(chǔ)備的增加而產(chǎn)生相應(yīng)的變化。 最后,本文針對(duì)當(dāng)前我國巨額的外匯儲(chǔ)備和外匯沖銷措施的有效實(shí)施提出了相應(yīng)的政策建議。一是深化外匯管理體制改革,包括完善意愿結(jié)售匯制度,放寬外匯賬戶管理；建立靈活的匯率機(jī)制,將匯率浮動(dòng)的范圍逐步放寬；二是采取綜合措施平衡國際收支,包括促進(jìn)高新技術(shù)設(shè)備進(jìn)口,改變進(jìn)出口商品種類,注重引進(jìn)外資,并引導(dǎo)企業(yè)“走出去”,把“引進(jìn)來”與“走出去”相結(jié)合：防范熱錢大規(guī)模進(jìn)出,完善外匯管理政策；科學(xué)合理運(yùn)用外匯儲(chǔ)備,發(fā)揮外匯儲(chǔ)備對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的積極作用。最后完善外匯沖銷措施,包括推進(jìn)利率全面市場化,保證貨幣政策的順利傳導(dǎo)；創(chuàng)新金融工具,豐富沖銷手段的多樣化,加強(qiáng)公開市場建設(shè)和加強(qiáng)貨幣政策和財(cái)政政策的協(xié)調(diào)搭配使用。
[Abstract]:With China's economic growth, China's balance of payments has been running a double surplus, resulting in more and more foreign exchange reserves. In February 2006, China's foreign exchange reserves exceeded Japan's and became the country with the largest foreign exchange reserves in the world. In this way, a large number of foreign exchange accounts have been formed. The generation of foreign exchange accounts will make the central bank passively increase the investment of basic money. If the central bank does not take any sterilization measures, it will lead to the increase of the total money supply of the society and eventually lead to the rise of prices. In view of the excessive foreign exchange in the foreign exchange market, the central bank will implement corresponding intervention measures in order to maintain the stability of the exchange rate. By reviewing the foreign exchange sterilization measures adopted by the central bank over the years and analyzing the implementation of the foreign exchange sterilization measures, it is found that the foreign exchange sterilization measures in China can not completely offset the foreign exchange occupation. Excess liquidity caused by foreign exchange sterilization measures in the short term effective, but in the long term sterilization effect is very small, and even will have a certain negative effect on the economy.
On the other hand, China's price level is also showing a trend of constant fluctuation after the reform and opening up. Especially in recent years, the price has risen sharply and inflationary pressures have appeared. The fluctuation of price level not only affects the daily life of residents, but also affects all aspects of enterprises and social economy, thus affecting the economy of China. The stable development of prices is not only the focus of every resident after dinner, but also an important goal of national macro-control.
Under the background of the sharp increase of foreign exchange reserve, whether the fluctuation of price level is related to the increase of foreign exchange reserve, what kind of relationship exists between them, or how big the relationship is, etc. are particularly worth paying attention to. Relevant theories: money supply theory, inflation theory and foreign exchange write-off theory, select the quarterly data from 2001 to 2011, through co-integration analysis, error correction model and impulse response function empirical analysis, and finally come to a conclusion. With the increase of foreign exchange reserve, the central bank will adopt a corresponding monetary sterilization policy to intervene in the passive increase of money supply caused by the increase of foreign exchange. The change of money supply does not necessarily lead to the change of interest rate. Because the interest rate has not been fully marketized and the capital account has not been fully opened up, the transmission mechanism between interest rate and capital account is hindered. Yes, in the long run, because of the limitation of the central bank's hedging space and the negative effect of hedging tools, it is impossible for the central bank to hedge the increase of the base currency caused by the increase of foreign exchange reserves completely. Corresponding changes.
Finally, this paper puts forward corresponding policy suggestions for the effective implementation of China's huge foreign exchange reserves and sterilization measures. First, deepen the reform of foreign exchange management system, including perfecting the system of willingness to settle and sell foreign exchange, relaxing the management of foreign exchange accounts; establish a flexible exchange rate mechanism to gradually relax the scope of exchange rate fluctuations; second, adopt comprehensive measures. Joint measures to balance the balance of international payments include promoting the import of high-tech equipment, changing the types of import and export commodities, paying attention to the introduction of foreign capital, guiding enterprises to "go out" and combining "import" with "go out": preventing large-scale hot money in and out, improving foreign exchange management policies; making scientific and rational use of foreign exchange reserves, and bringing foreign exchange reserves into full play. Finally, we should improve the foreign exchange sterilization measures, including promoting the full marketization of interest rates, ensuring the smooth transmission of monetary policy, innovating financial instruments, enriching the diversification of sterilization means, strengthening the construction of open markets and strengthening the coordination and use of monetary and fiscal policies.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6;F726

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本文編號(hào)：2191163