【摘要】：摘要：在當(dāng)今國際經(jīng)濟(jì)緩慢復(fù)蘇、國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速放緩以及中國資本市場逐步規(guī)范的背景下,如何對上市銀行投資價(jià)值進(jìn)行評估是投資者、債權(quán)人和銀行管理者共同面臨的問題。 中國民生銀行是資產(chǎn)規(guī)模增長最快的股份制商業(yè)銀行。本文站在投資者的角度,本著理論與實(shí)踐相結(jié)合的原則,基于上市公司投資價(jià)值的有關(guān)理論和前人的研究成果,收集、整理了大量我國銀行業(yè)和民生銀行的數(shù)據(jù)資料。任何一個(gè)公司的生存和發(fā)展都受到宏觀環(huán)境的約束,特別是對銀行業(yè)來說,上市銀行是受到國家最為嚴(yán)格監(jiān)管的公司,與其他上市公司不同,貨幣政策和其他的銀行業(yè)監(jiān)管政策、法律法規(guī)對商業(yè)銀行的經(jīng)營業(yè)績有著明顯而直接的影響。通過對銀行業(yè)管理制度環(huán)境,銀行業(yè)的發(fā)展趨勢和競爭狀況的分析讓我們對銀行業(yè)有一個(gè)全景式的把握；通過對民生銀行的基本情況、業(yè)務(wù)經(jīng)營狀況和資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量管理、公司治理、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制能力的分析使我們把握對民生銀行有影響的關(guān)鍵的驅(qū)動力；財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表是進(jìn)行財(cái)務(wù)分析的重要信息來源,盡管它們記錄的是過去某一時(shí)點(diǎn)或某一期間的財(cái)務(wù)狀況、經(jīng)營成果和現(xiàn)金流量。本文以凈資產(chǎn)收益率為核心,通過對民生銀行的盈利能力、經(jīng)營與成長能力,償債能力以及現(xiàn)金流的結(jié)構(gòu)、創(chuàng)造能力與保障能力等方面的財(cái)務(wù)分析來了解民生銀行的業(yè)務(wù)動力。在業(yè)務(wù)狀況分析和財(cái)務(wù)狀況分析的基礎(chǔ)上,對民生銀行未來一段時(shí)期的財(cái)務(wù)狀況和現(xiàn)金流量進(jìn)行預(yù)測,并通過自由現(xiàn)金流量模型和市盈率、市凈率法對民生銀行進(jìn)行投資價(jià)值估值。最后得出結(jié)論：在目前的市場狀況下,民生銀行具有一定的投資價(jià)值。
[Abstract]:Abstract: in the context of the slow recovery of the international economy, the slowdown of domestic economic growth and the gradual standardization of China's capital market, how to evaluate the investment value of listed banks is a common problem for investors, creditors and bank managers.
The people's livelihood bank of China is the fastest growing stock commercial bank. From the perspective of investors, this paper collects and collects a large number of data of China's banking and Minsheng Bank Based on the principle of combining theory with practice, the theory of investment value of listed companies and the results of previous research. The survival and development are constrained by the macro environment. Especially for the banking industry, the listed banks are most strictly regulated by the state, different from other listed companies, monetary policy and other banking regulatory policies, and laws and regulations have a clear and direct impact on the business performance of commercial banks. The management system environment, the development trend of the banking industry and the analysis of the competition situation let us have a panoramic view of the banking industry. Through the basic situation of the people's livelihood bank, the business operation situation and the asset quality management, the corporate governance, the risk control ability analysis make us hold the key driving force to the Minsheng Bank. Financial statements are an important source of information for financial analysis, although they record the financial situation of a certain time point or a period of time, the operating results and cash flow. This article, based on the net income rate as the core, creates the ability to profit, business and growth, solvency and the structure of cash flow for the people's livelihood bank. On the basis of business situation analysis and financial situation analysis, the financial situation and cash flow of Minsheng Bank are predicted on the basis of business situation analysis and financial situation analysis, and the investment price of Minsheng Bank is carried out by the free cash flow model and the market earnings ratio and the city net rate method. Value estimation. Finally, it is concluded that Minsheng Bank has certain investment value under current market conditions.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F830.42

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