【摘要】：在世界經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化，一體化，自由化的發(fā)展趨勢(shì)下，世界各國(guó)大力推進(jìn)國(guó)際金融經(jīng)濟(jì)政策，而匯率制度作為一國(guó)最重要經(jīng)濟(jì)制度，對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展起著重要的作用。匯率的過(guò)度上升會(huì)給一國(guó)或地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)帶來(lái)影響。在中國(guó)匯率制度改革對(duì)來(lái)，人民幣不斷上升。人民幣匯率的升值會(huì)對(duì)浙江省的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)造成什么樣的影響？因此本文就人民升值與浙江省經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)影響進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。最終得到如下研究結(jié)論： （1）人民幣匯率改革以來(lái)，人民幣匯率首先在1985-1994年不斷貶值，但從1994年我國(guó)實(shí)行人民幣匯率并軌制度，，人民幣對(duì)美元還是港幣的匯率都呈現(xiàn)上升，人民幣升值壓力越來(lái)越大；浙江省居民消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)、商品零售價(jià)格指數(shù)以及工業(yè)品出廠價(jià)格指數(shù)基本呈現(xiàn)出上升趨勢(shì)。另外，浙江省進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易總額、外商直接投資不斷擴(kuò)大，但是兩者都在地區(qū)和行業(yè)方面分布不均，如出口主要以勞動(dòng)密集型產(chǎn)品為主，外商直接投資主要流向傳統(tǒng)制造業(yè)。 （2）通過(guò)協(xié)整分析、格蘭杰因果、脈沖響應(yīng)、誤差修正等分析發(fā)現(xiàn)，人民幣升值與浙江省經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間存在長(zhǎng)期的協(xié)整關(guān)系，長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看不利于浙江省經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，且這種影響程度逐步增加，但短期內(nèi)人民幣升值有利于浙江省經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。 （3）從人民幣升值對(duì)浙江省經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的作用機(jī)理來(lái)看：人民幣升值對(duì)浙江省內(nèi)商品價(jià)格水平、外商直接投資、進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易產(chǎn)生顯著的影響，進(jìn)而影響浙江省經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，具體表現(xiàn)在人民幣升值促進(jìn)浙江省商品價(jià)格的上升；人民幣升值對(duì)浙江省進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易產(chǎn)生負(fù)向作用，且在1%的水平下顯著；人民幣實(shí)際匯率在1%的水平下對(duì)浙江省外商直接投資產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響，表明了外商直接投資在浙江省主要是以成本導(dǎo)向型為主，人民幣的升值導(dǎo)致外商直接投資企業(yè)的相對(duì)生產(chǎn)成本上升，進(jìn)而減少成本導(dǎo)向型外商直接投資。
[Abstract]:Under the trend of globalization, integration and liberalization of the world economy, countries all over the world vigorously promote the international financial and economic policies, and the exchange rate system, as the most important economic system of a country, plays an important role in the economic development. Excessive appreciation of the exchange rate will have an impact on the economic growth of a country or region. In China's exchange rate regime reform, the RMB continues to rise. What impact will the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate have on the economic growth of Zhejiang Province? Therefore, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the impact of people's appreciation and economic growth in Zhejiang Province. Finally, the following conclusions are obtained: (1) since the reform of RMB exchange rate, the RMB exchange rate has first depreciated from 1985 to 1994, but since 1994, China has implemented the RMB exchange rate system. The RMB rose against both the US dollar and the Hong Kong dollar, with increasing pressure on the renminbi to appreciate, while the consumer price index, retail price index and factory price index of industrial products in Zhejiang Province showed a basic upward trend. In addition, the total volume of import and export trade in Zhejiang Province and foreign direct investment continue to expand, but both are unevenly distributed in regions and industries. For example, exports are mainly labor-intensive products. FDI mainly flows to traditional manufacturing industries. (2) through the analysis of cointegration analysis, Granger causality, impulse response and error correction, it is found that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between RMB appreciation and economic growth in Zhejiang Province. In the long run, it is not conducive to economic growth in Zhejiang Province, and the degree of this influence is gradually increasing. But the appreciation of RMB in the short term is beneficial to the economic growth of Zhejiang Province. (3) judging from the mechanism of RMB appreciation on the economic growth of Zhejiang Province, the appreciation of RMB affects the commodity price level and foreign direct investment in Zhejiang Province. Import and export trade has a significant impact on the economic growth of Zhejiang Province, which is manifested in the appreciation of RMB and the rise of commodity prices in Zhejiang Province; the appreciation of RMB has a negative effect on the import and export trade of Zhejiang Province. At the level of 1%, the real exchange rate of RMB has a negative impact on FDI in Zhejiang Province, which indicates that the FDI in Zhejiang Province is mainly cost oriented. The appreciation of RMB leads to the increase of relative production cost of foreign direct investment enterprises and the reduction of cost-oriented foreign direct investment.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F127;F832.6

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