【摘要】：風(fēng)險投資在推動高新技術(shù)和新興產(chǎn)業(yè)、企業(yè)發(fā)展方面的作用是巨大的，越來越受到國際特別是國內(nèi)的關(guān)注和重視。國內(nèi)理論界在20世紀(jì)80年代就注意到發(fā)展風(fēng)險投資，對于我國這個新興經(jīng)濟體在技術(shù)進步、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級、經(jīng)濟快速發(fā)展的緊迫性和重要性。 我國風(fēng)險投資增長迅速，風(fēng)險投資企業(yè)的數(shù)量明顯增多，籌集到的資金數(shù)額巨大，但是從發(fā)展階段來看，我國的風(fēng)險投資業(yè)還不發(fā)達，，投資項目的成功率不高，效益不好，對經(jīng)濟增長和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化的貢獻率還很小。究其原因，除了我國風(fēng)險投資起步較晚，政策法律環(huán)境不夠完善外，還有理論研究的滯后和實際運作經(jīng)驗的缺乏，特別是缺乏有效的風(fēng)險投資決策評價方法和機制。 鑒于此，本文的主要研究內(nèi)容是：首先從多個角度介紹了我國風(fēng)險投資發(fā)展的概況，指出決策過程缺乏行之有效有效的評價方法。文章在總結(jié)和分析的前提下，建立了符合我國特點的風(fēng)險投資決策評價指標(biāo)體系，構(gòu)建了適合我國國情的風(fēng)險投資多目標(biāo)決策模型，并借助matlab進行了層次分析，借助spss軟件進行了主成分分析。傳統(tǒng)的風(fēng)險投資決策方法把決策固定在一個時間點上，忽視了風(fēng)險項目投資中存在的管理彈性價值和戰(zhàn)略價值，盲目決策導(dǎo)致投資失敗。本論文將實物期權(quán)理論引入風(fēng)險投資項目決策之中，利用實物期權(quán)評估風(fēng)險項目的彈性價值和投資機會價值，降低由不確定性所帶來的風(fēng)險，更真實的反應(yīng)了投資項目的實際價值，改進了風(fēng)險投資決策的評估手段和方法。針對風(fēng)險投資多階段投資，多種不確定性并存的特點，闡明了風(fēng)險投資所包含的多種期權(quán)價值，構(gòu)建了分階段復(fù)合實物期權(quán)模型并進行了實證分析，運用蒙特卡洛模擬法并借助excel求得了復(fù)合期權(quán)的價值。最后在指出實物期權(quán)法缺陷的基礎(chǔ)上，引入博弈論，分析了風(fēng)險投資中的期權(quán)博弈性，結(jié)合寡頭壟斷市場的成立條件，構(gòu)建了風(fēng)險投資實物期權(quán)博弈模型，將我國風(fēng)險投資中常出現(xiàn)的對賭協(xié)議與期權(quán)博弈相聯(lián)系，進行了實證研究。
[Abstract]:Venture capital plays an important role in promoting the development of new and high technology and new industries, and has been paid more and more attention by the international, especially at home. The domestic theorists paid attention to the development of venture capital in the 1980s. It is urgent and important for China's emerging economy to advance in technology, upgrade its industrial structure and develop rapidly. With the rapid growth of venture capital in China, the number of venture capital enterprises increases obviously, and the amount of funds raised is huge. However, from the development stage, the venture capital industry in our country is still underdeveloped, the success rate of investment projects is not high, and the benefits are not good. The contribution rate to economic growth and industrial structure optimization is still very small. In addition to the late start of venture capital and inadequate policy and legal environment in China, there is also the lag of theoretical research and the lack of practical operational experience, especially the lack of effective methods and mechanisms for the evaluation of venture capital decision-making. In view of this, the main research contents of this paper are as follows: firstly, the general situation of venture capital development in China is introduced from several angles, and it is pointed out that the decision-making process lacks an effective evaluation method. On the premise of summing up and analyzing, the paper sets up the evaluation index system of venture capital decision, which accords with the characteristics of our country, and constructs a multi-objective decision-making model of venture capital suitable for our country's national conditions, and makes a hierarchical analysis with the help of matlab. Principal component analysis was carried out with spss software. The traditional methods of venture capital decision fix the decision at a time point and ignore the value of management elasticity and strategic value in venture investment. Blind decision leads to the failure of investment. In this paper, the real option theory is introduced into the venture capital project decision-making, and the real option is used to evaluate the elastic value and the investment opportunity value of the risk project, so as to reduce the risk caused by the uncertainty. It reflects the real value of the investment project and improves the evaluation method of venture capital decision. In view of the multi-stage investment of venture capital and the coexistence of various uncertainties, this paper clarifies the value of various options contained in venture capital, constructs a multi-stage compound real option model and makes an empirical analysis. The value of compound option is obtained by Monte Carlo simulation and excel. Finally, on the basis of pointing out the defects of the real option method, this paper introduces the game theory, analyzes the option game in venture capital, and constructs the real option game model of venture capital based on the conditions of the oligopoly market. This paper makes an empirical study on the relationship between the gambling agreement and the option game, which is often found in venture capital in China.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：江蘇科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.48;F224

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