本文選題：股利政策 + 面板probit模型�。� 參考：《東北財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：上市公司的終極財務(wù)分配直接關(guān)系到公司價值的最大化,而股利政策的制定作為財務(wù)分配中的一個重要環(huán)節(jié),亟需得到公司管理層和財務(wù)學(xué)者的高度重視。自上世紀(jì)六十年代美國財務(wù)學(xué)者Miller, M. H和經(jīng)濟學(xué)家Modigliani F.發(fā)表了題為《Dividend Policy, Growth and the Valuation of Shares》的文章以來,西方財務(wù)學(xué)者對以“MM股利無關(guān)論”為代表的古典股利理論開始了大量的拓展研究,提出了稅差理論、信號傳遞理論、追隨者效應(yīng)理論、行為學(xué)理論等,并在理論的基礎(chǔ)上運用各種方法對上市公司股利政策進行了實證研究。由于特殊的資本市場結(jié)構(gòu)和法規(guī)制度,我國學(xué)者從上世紀(jì)九十年代才開始跟隨西方前沿,結(jié)合我國的實際情況研究上市公司股利政策,并取得了一系列的研究成果。其中大部分研究都集中在上市公司股利政策市場效應(yīng)上,且以規(guī)范性分析為主,實證研究較少。對于是什么因素決定上市公司是否分配股利,以及什么因素決定分配水平的問題上,采用的統(tǒng)計方法都較為簡單,得到的結(jié)果也不甚相同。因此,筆者希望通過本文的研究,對這兩個問題做更深層次的剖析。 本文首先對近二十年來我國上市公司的股利分配情況作了統(tǒng)計性描述,并對統(tǒng)計結(jié)果進行了簡要分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)我國上市公司股利政策主要表現(xiàn)為以下特征：實施股利分配的公司占所有上市公司的比例較��；現(xiàn)金股利分配的行業(yè)特征較明顯；我國現(xiàn)金股利回報率非常小等。緊接著本文對股利政策的影響因素進行了理論分析,以此為根據(jù)在實證部分提出假設(shè),并通過模型設(shè)置檢驗假設(shè)的合理性。研究是否分配股利采用面板probit模型,研究分配水平采用固定效應(yīng)模型,分別用Stata軟件進行了統(tǒng)計分析。最終得出的結(jié)論是：企業(yè)的盈利能力、資產(chǎn)負債率、企業(yè)規(guī)模以及第一大股東持股比例是影響公司是否發(fā)放現(xiàn)金股利的因素；每股收益、每股凈資產(chǎn)、凈資產(chǎn)收益率、流動比率、總資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率、每股留存收益、資產(chǎn)負債率、營業(yè)總收入同比增長率、流通股比例以及第一大股東持股比例是影響股利支付水平的主要因素。 較以往研究股利政策的文獻相比,本文最大的創(chuàng)新之處在于采用面板數(shù)據(jù)進行分析。面板數(shù)據(jù)相比于橫截面數(shù)據(jù)有很多優(yōu)點,根據(jù)對我國上市公司近二十年的股利政策情況統(tǒng)計,發(fā)現(xiàn)其是一個不斷變化不斷調(diào)整的動態(tài)過程,且各解釋變量間可能存在共線性等。針對這些問題,考慮采用面板數(shù)據(jù)更為合適,得到的結(jié)果也更具可信性。本文的不足之處在于：選取的數(shù)據(jù)時間跨度較短,僅考慮了股權(quán)分置改革后上市公司的股利分配情況；只針對現(xiàn)金股利進行研究,沒有研究股票股利等其他股利分配方式。
[Abstract]:The ultimate financial allocation of listed companies is directly related to the maximization of corporate value. As an important part of financial allocation, dividend policy formulation needs to be highly valued by management and financial scholars. Since the 1960s, American finance scholars Miller, M.H and economist Modigliani F. Since the publication of the article entitled "divide Policy, growth and the valuation of shares", Western financial scholars have begun a lot of extensive research on the classical dividend theory represented by "MM dividend independence theory", and put forward the tax difference theory and signal transmission theory. On the basis of the theory of follower effect and behavioral theory, this paper makes an empirical study on dividend policy of listed companies. Due to the special capital market structure and legal system, Chinese scholars began to follow the western frontier from the 1990s, combined with the actual situation of our country to study the dividend policy of listed companies, and obtained a series of research results. Most of the studies focus on the market effect of dividend policy of listed companies, and normative analysis is the main, empirical research is less. The statistical method is simple and the result is not the same as which factors determine whether or not the listed company distributes dividends and what factors determine the distribution level. Therefore, the author hopes to do a deeper analysis of these two problems through the study of this paper. This paper first gives a statistical description of the dividend distribution of listed companies in China in the past 20 years, and analyzes the statistical results briefly. It is found that the dividend policy of listed companies in China is characterized by the following characteristics: the proportion of all listed companies that implement dividend distribution is small; the industry characteristics of cash dividend distribution are obvious; the rate of return of cash dividend is very small in China. Then this paper makes a theoretical analysis on the influencing factors of dividend policy, based on which the hypothesis is put forward in the empirical part, and the rationality of the hypothesis is tested by setting the model. The panel probit model and the fixed effect model are used to study the distribution of dividends. The statistical analysis is carried out by Stata software. The final conclusions are as follows: the profitability of the company, the ratio of assets to liabilities, the size of the enterprise and the proportion of the largest shareholders are the factors that affect whether the company issues cash dividends, earnings per share, net assets per share, return on net assets, Current ratio, turnover ratio of total assets, retained earnings per share, asset-liability ratio, gross operating income growth rate, the ratio of circulating shares and the proportion of the largest shareholders are the main factors that affect the level of dividend payment. Compared with previous studies on dividend policy, the greatest innovation of this paper is the use of panel data for analysis. Compared with cross-section data, panel data has many advantages. According to the statistics of dividend policy of China's listed companies in the past 20 years, it is found that it is a dynamic process that is constantly changing and adjusting, and there may be a co-linearity between the various explanatory variables and so on. To solve these problems, it is more appropriate to consider using panel data, and the results are more reliable. The shortcoming of this paper is that the time span of the selected data is short, only the dividend distribution of listed companies after the split share structure reform is considered; only the cash dividend is studied, but other dividend distribution methods such as stock dividend are not studied.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F275;F832.51;F224

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