本文選題：上市商業(yè)銀行 + 財(cái)務(wù)績(jī)效分析�。� 參考：《西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著改革開放的深入和社會(huì)主義市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展,銀行初步建立了相對(duì)完善的現(xiàn)代法人治理結(jié)構(gòu),同時(shí)大型國(guó)有商業(yè)銀行改革取得重大突破——交通銀行、建設(shè)銀行、中國(guó)銀行和工商銀行完成股份制改革,農(nóng)業(yè)銀行的1PO也成功上市,而中小股份制商業(yè)銀行如招商銀行、民生銀行、浦發(fā)銀行也迅速成長(zhǎng)并壯大起來(lái)。根據(jù)2011年銀行業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)頒布的《中國(guó)銀行業(yè)發(fā)展報(bào)告》顯示,2010年中國(guó)銀行金融機(jī)構(gòu)實(shí)現(xiàn)稅后利潤(rùn)8992億元,同比增長(zhǎng)34.5%,2011年繼續(xù)保持穩(wěn)健運(yùn)行以及快速發(fā)展的趨勢(shì),但利潤(rùn)增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)放緩。由此可見,我國(guó)銀行業(yè)目前發(fā)展迅速,增長(zhǎng)態(tài)勢(shì)良好,紛紛上市的商業(yè)銀行已成為我國(guó)資本市場(chǎng)的中流砥柱。 市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的大發(fā)展為銀行業(yè)提供了廣闊市場(chǎng)和眾多機(jī)會(huì),而銀行業(yè)的快速發(fā)展又為市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的良好運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)提供了有力支撐和金融保障。同時(shí),作為我國(guó)金融業(yè)主體的上市商業(yè)銀行,其經(jīng)營(yíng)績(jī)效和財(cái)務(wù)狀況不僅影響到銀行業(yè)的健康發(fā)展,而且還影響到整個(gè)金融業(yè)的穩(wěn)定運(yùn)行和良好運(yùn)作態(tài)勢(shì),甚至對(duì)我國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行都有著重要的影響。 隨著我國(guó)金融市場(chǎng)的逐步完善與規(guī)范,更多商業(yè)銀行在謀求自身發(fā)展的同時(shí)也積極上市,將股權(quán)融資成為壯大其力量的手段。由于上市后要求對(duì)資產(chǎn)狀況的披露,一方面使得銀行業(yè)的操作運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)更加公平透明,另一方面也方便了我們對(duì)其財(cái)務(wù)狀況和經(jīng)營(yíng)效果的研究。而在后金融危機(jī)時(shí)期,面對(duì)外部經(jīng)營(yíng)環(huán)境日趨復(fù)雜的重大變化以及同業(yè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的不斷加劇,面對(duì)中國(guó)履行世貿(mào)協(xié)議銀行業(yè)進(jìn)入全面開放階段的大環(huán)境,這給中國(guó)上市商業(yè)銀行既帶來(lái)了壓力,也創(chuàng)造了轉(zhuǎn)型機(jī)遇。為了適應(yīng)激烈競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的金融環(huán)境,增強(qiáng)我國(guó)上市商業(yè)銀行的運(yùn)營(yíng)效率,化解金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、獲得生存和加快發(fā)展,分析我國(guó)上市商業(yè)銀行的財(cái)務(wù)績(jī)效顯得尤為重要。 基于此,我選取了相繼股改成功上市的十四家上市商業(yè)銀行為分析對(duì)象。這十四家上市商業(yè)銀行不僅資本實(shí)力雄厚,而且經(jīng)營(yíng)業(yè)績(jī)優(yōu)良,相對(duì)于我國(guó)整個(gè)銀行業(yè)具有一定的代表性。因此,我通過分析上市商業(yè)銀行的財(cái)務(wù)績(jī)效,從而以點(diǎn)概面,以此研判中國(guó)銀行業(yè)的發(fā)展?fàn)顟B(tài)與發(fā)展趨勢(shì),并通過對(duì)上市商業(yè)銀行的財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表以及交易、賬戶余額和披露的相關(guān)財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計(jì)分析,找出各自的優(yōu)勢(shì)和不足,從而發(fā)揚(yáng)優(yōu)勢(shì)克服不足,為管理者提供有價(jià)值的參考意見,以此來(lái)發(fā)揮其競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì),提高銀行業(yè)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。 有鑒于此,本文以現(xiàn)代商業(yè)銀行財(cái)務(wù)績(jī)效分析理論為指導(dǎo),按照商業(yè)銀行安全性、流動(dòng)性、盈利性經(jīng)營(yíng)原則,將規(guī)范研究方法和實(shí)證研究方法相結(jié)合,概述了上市商業(yè)銀行現(xiàn)狀以及有關(guān)商業(yè)銀行的管理理論,分析了上市商業(yè)銀行最新數(shù)據(jù)所計(jì)算得來(lái)的財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo),并采用數(shù)學(xué)建模的方式構(gòu)建和完善了上市商業(yè)銀行財(cái)務(wù)分析指標(biāo)體系,運(yùn)用財(cái)務(wù)績(jī)效評(píng)價(jià)方法進(jìn)行具體的實(shí)證分析,比較各個(gè)上市商業(yè)銀行的財(cái)務(wù)績(jī)效,以得到從財(cái)務(wù)角度上改進(jìn)管理的建議以及提高銀行競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的措施。 本文共分六個(gè)部分： 第一部分,首先交代了本文的寫作目的和背景,概述了當(dāng)前銀行業(yè)整體處于大發(fā)展面臨大機(jī)遇的時(shí)代背景；其次交代了寫作意義,即對(duì)于投資者、經(jīng)營(yíng)管理者和監(jiān)督執(zhí)法者均有意義；最后概括了本文的主要內(nèi)容、研究思路和方法。 第二部分,綜述了相關(guān)文獻(xiàn),概述了上市商業(yè)銀行財(cái)務(wù)績(jī)效分析的相關(guān)理論,即上市商業(yè)銀行財(cái)務(wù)績(jī)效理論、上市商業(yè)銀行財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)體系理論和財(cái)務(wù)績(jī)效分析方法理論。 第三部分,對(duì)目前我國(guó)上市商業(yè)銀行的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀做了詳細(xì)的總結(jié)。先對(duì)上市商業(yè)銀行經(jīng)營(yíng)的國(guó)際環(huán)境和國(guó)內(nèi)環(huán)境分別予以闡述,然后概括了我國(guó)上市商業(yè)銀行體系的形成過程,并對(duì)我國(guó)銀行業(yè)的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀做了描述。 第四部分,構(gòu)建了財(cái)務(wù)績(jī)效評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,分別從盈利性分析、安全性分析、流動(dòng)性分析和成長(zhǎng)性分析四個(gè)方面來(lái)建造財(cái)務(wù)績(jī)效分析體系,并且總共分析了十六個(gè)財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo),分別把上市商業(yè)銀行最近三年的財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)數(shù)據(jù)制成表格形式表達(dá)出來(lái),從各個(gè)數(shù)字上看出最近幾年的運(yùn)營(yíng)情況。 第五部分,根據(jù)上述四個(gè)財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)上的原始數(shù)據(jù),運(yùn)用因子分析方法,并用STATA軟件建立模型,得出我國(guó)上市商業(yè)銀行的總體財(cái)務(wù)情況,并利用因子分析法對(duì)各家上市商業(yè)銀行的主因子進(jìn)行排序打分,分析各家上市商業(yè)銀行在四個(gè)因子上的表現(xiàn)以及各自在運(yùn)營(yíng)上的優(yōu)勢(shì)與不足。最后預(yù)測(cè)上市商業(yè)銀行未來(lái)可能在財(cái)務(wù)績(jī)效上面的表現(xiàn)。認(rèn)為未來(lái)大型銀行作為行業(yè)“領(lǐng)頭羊”的地位仍不會(huì)動(dòng)搖,中小銀行未來(lái)發(fā)展具有潛力,其中潛力巨大的銀行有深發(fā)展銀行、浦發(fā)銀行和中信銀行。 第六部分,提出了加強(qiáng)上市商業(yè)銀行的財(cái)務(wù)管理建議,首先認(rèn)為我國(guó)上市商業(yè)銀行應(yīng)共同得到發(fā)展,在共同進(jìn)步的基礎(chǔ)上各家上市商業(yè)銀行應(yīng)做到特色發(fā)展,比如招商銀行應(yīng)發(fā)揮其服務(wù)優(yōu)勢(shì)、而工行應(yīng)發(fā)揮其規(guī)模效應(yīng)。其次是應(yīng)改變當(dāng)前單一依靠存貸款利差的盈利模式,大力發(fā)展中間收入,實(shí)現(xiàn)其盈利增長(zhǎng)方式的轉(zhuǎn)型。 總之,本文從分析我國(guó)上市商業(yè)銀行的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀以及發(fā)展背景入手,以商業(yè)銀行財(cái)務(wù)績(jī)效理論為基礎(chǔ),以近三年的財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)為支架,對(duì)上市商業(yè)銀行做了實(shí)證分析,最后得出結(jié)論,提出了完善和改進(jìn)管理的建議。 本文的創(chuàng)新之處在于： 第一,將單因素指標(biāo)分析與綜合評(píng)價(jià)相結(jié)合,提高了評(píng)價(jià)的可靠性與可參考性。運(yùn)用計(jì)量和統(tǒng)計(jì)的方法,并將大型國(guó)有銀行與中小型股份制銀行進(jìn)行全面的比較,定量的分析我國(guó)上市商業(yè)銀行的整體經(jīng)營(yíng)績(jī)效水平。 第二,在實(shí)踐中針對(duì)因子分析法采用橫截面數(shù)據(jù)分析的不足,我通過對(duì)2008-2010年14個(gè)樣本上市商業(yè)銀行的三年數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行因子分析,對(duì)上市商業(yè)銀行進(jìn)行動(dòng)態(tài)的對(duì)比分析,彌補(bǔ)了靜態(tài)分析的不足。 第三,現(xiàn)有效率研究一般側(cè)重于實(shí)證方面,理論層面的分析不夠。理論是實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)的基礎(chǔ),沒有理論根據(jù)的實(shí)證缺乏說服力,理論又是實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)的補(bǔ)充,彌補(bǔ)了實(shí)證數(shù)據(jù)不可獲得或者某些因素不可計(jì)量的缺陷,本文掌握了較為豐富的理論資料結(jié)合實(shí)證分析做出了深入探討,這也可能構(gòu)成了本文在方法和內(nèi)容上的有價(jià)值的創(chuàng)新。 第四,嘗試對(duì)上市商業(yè)銀行的未來(lái)財(cái)務(wù)績(jī)效表現(xiàn)進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),本文運(yùn)用技術(shù)手段,在運(yùn)用因子分析法進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析之后,建立了預(yù)測(cè)模型,以前3年的財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)為解釋變量,來(lái)預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)1年的財(cái)務(wù)表現(xiàn)。 當(dāng)然本文還存在很多的不足之處,比如由于本人選取的數(shù)據(jù)大多來(lái)自于互聯(lián)網(wǎng),沒有到所在銀行查閱。同時(shí),財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)的選取也有一定的局限性,對(duì)影響經(jīng)營(yíng)業(yè)績(jī)變量?jī)H僅局限于財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)本身,而一些對(duì)銀行經(jīng)營(yíng)業(yè)績(jī)產(chǎn)生重大影響的因素,比如國(guó)家宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策、國(guó)家產(chǎn)業(yè)政策等因素未納入研究范圍。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of reform and opening up and the development of the socialist market economy, the bank has initially established a relatively perfect modern corporate governance structure. At the same time, the reform of large state-owned commercial banks has made major breakthroughs - the Bank of communications, the Construction Bank, the Bank of China and the industrial and commercial bank to complete the share system reform, and the 1PO of the Agricultural Bank has also been successfully listed. Small and medium sized joint-stock commercial banks, such as China Merchants Bank, Minsheng Bank and Pufa Bank, also grew rapidly and grew up. According to the China Banking Development Report issued by the banking association in 2011, the bank financial institutions of China achieved 899 billion 200 million yuan after tax in 2010, up 34.5% in the year on year, and continued to maintain steady operation and rapid development in 2011. However, the trend of profit growth has slowed down. Thus, China's banking industry has developed rapidly and has a good growth trend. The commercial banks that have been listed in succession have become the mainstay of our capital market.
The development of the market economy provides a broad market and a large number of opportunities for the banking industry, and the rapid development of the banking industry provides strong support and financial guarantee for the good operation of the market economy. At the same time, the commercial banks, as the main body of our financial industry, not only affect the healthy development of the banking industry, but also their business performance and financial situation. It also affects the stable operation and good operation of the entire financial industry, and even has an important impact on China's economic operation.
With the gradual improvement and standardization of the financial market in China, more commercial banks are actively listed in the pursuit of their own development, and the equity financing has become a strong means to strengthen its strength. In the post financial crisis, in the period of the post financial crisis, facing the increasingly complex changes in the external operating environment and the intensification of the competition in the same industry, it has brought pressure to China's listed commercial banks and created opportunities for transformation in the face of China's implementation of the world trade agreement banking industry in a comprehensive and open environment. In order to adapt to the financial environment of fierce competition, enhance the operational efficiency of the listed commercial banks in China, resolve financial risks, obtain survival and accelerate the development, it is particularly important to analyze the financial performance of the listed commercial banks in China.
Based on this, I selected fourteen listed commercial banks which have been listed in succession. The fourteen listed commercial banks not only have strong capital strength, but also have good performance, which are relative to the whole banking industry in our country. Therefore, I analyze the financial performance of the listed commercial banks by analyzing the financial performance of the listed commercial banks. In order to find out the state and trend of the development of China's banking industry, through the statistical analysis of the financial statements of the listed commercial banks and the related financial data of the transaction, account balance and disclosure, the advantages and shortcomings of the banks are found out, so as to develop the advantages to overcome the shortcomings and provide valuable reference for the managers. With its competitive advantage, the competitiveness of the banking industry is improved.
In view of this, this paper, guided by the theory of financial performance analysis of modern commercial banks, combines the safety, liquidity and profit management principles of commercial banks, combines the normative research method and the empirical research method, summarizes the current situation of the listed commercial banks and the management theory of commercial banks, and analyzes the latest data of the listed commercial banks. The financial indicators are calculated, and the financial analysis index system of the listed commercial banks is constructed and perfected by mathematical modeling. The financial performance evaluation method is used to analyze the financial performance of the listed commercial banks, so as to improve the management suggestions from the financial angle and improve the competition of the banks. Measures of force.
This article is divided into six parts:
The first part, first of all, explains the purpose and background of this paper, summarizes the background of the great opportunities for the development of the banking industry as a whole, and then explains the meaning of the writing, that is, it is meaningful to the investors, managers and supervision of the law enforcement. Finally, the main contents of this paper, the research ideas and methods are summarized.
The second part summarizes the related literature, summarizes the related theories of financial performance analysis of listed commercial banks, that is, the financial performance theory of listed commercial banks, the financial index system theory of listed commercial banks and the theory of financial performance analysis method.
The third part makes a detailed summary of the current situation of the development of the listed commercial banks in China. First, the international environment and domestic environment of the listed commercial banks are expounded respectively. Then the formation process of the listed commercial bank system in China is summarized, and the development status of China's banking industry is described.
In the fourth part, the financial performance evaluation index system is constructed. The financial performance analysis system is constructed from four aspects, profitability analysis, security analysis, liquidity analysis and growth analysis, and a total of sixteen financial indicators are analyzed. The financial index data of the last three years of the listed commercial banks are made form form table respectively. Come out and see the operation in recent years from various figures.
The fifth part, based on the original data on the above four financial indicators, using factor analysis method, and using STATA software to establish the model, the overall financial situation of the listed commercial banks in China is obtained, and the factor analysis method is used to sort the main factors of the listed commercial banks and analyze the four factors of the listed commercial banks on the listed commercial banks. Performance and their advantages and disadvantages in their operation. Finally, the performance of the future financial performance of the listed commercial banks is predicted. It is believed that the future development of the large banks will not be shaken, and the future development of small and medium banks has potential. CITIC Bank.
The sixth part puts forward the suggestions to strengthen the financial management of the listed commercial banks. First of all, it is believed that the listed commercial banks in China should develop together. On the basis of the common progress, the listed commercial banks should develop the characteristics of the listed commercial banks. For example, China Merchants Bank should give full play to its service advantages, while the industrial bank should play its scale effect. Before relying solely on the profit margin of deposit and loan spreads, we should vigorously develop middle income and realize the transformation of its profit growth mode.
In a word, starting with the analysis of the current situation and development background of the listed commercial banks in China, based on the financial performance theory of commercial banks and the financial data of nearly three years as the support, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the listed commercial banks, and finally draws a conclusion, and puts forward some suggestions to improve and improve the management.
The innovation of this article lies in:
First, combining the single factor analysis and the comprehensive evaluation, the reliability and the reference of the evaluation are improved. By means of measurement and statistics, a comprehensive comparison of the large state-owned banks and small and medium sized joint-stock banks is carried out, and the overall performance level of the listed commercial banks in China is quantitatively analyzed.
Second, in practice, in view of the shortage of cross section data analysis by factor analysis method, I make a dynamic contrast analysis to the listed commercial banks through the factor analysis of the three year data of the listed commercial banks for 2008-2010 years and 14 samples, and make up for the shortage of static analysis.
Third, the existing efficiency research is generally focused on the empirical aspect, and the theoretical analysis is not enough. The theory is the basis of the empirical test, the empirical evidence is not convincing, the theory is the supplement of the empirical test, which makes up for the inaccessible data or the inmeasurable defects of some factors. This paper has mastered a more abundant theory. Combined with empirical analysis, the data have been deeply explored. This may also constitute a valuable innovation in the method and content of this article.
Fourth, try to predict the performance of the future financial performance of the listed commercial banks. In this paper, after using the technical means, the prediction model is established after the empirical analysis using the factor analysis method. The financial data of the previous 3 years are the explanatory variables to predict the financial statement of the next 1 years.
Of course, there are many shortcomings in this paper, for example, because most of the data I choose from the Internet are from the Internet and have not been consulted by the banks in which they are located, the selection of financial indicators also has some limitations. The factors that affect the operating performance variables are limited to the financial indicators themselves, and some of the factors that have a significant impact on the performance of the banks are due to the reasons. Such factors as national macroeconomic policies and national industrial policies are not included in the research area.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F830.42;F224

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