發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-07-01 09:29

  本文選題：貨幣政策 + 房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格�。� 參考：《中南大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：我國自1998年住房體制改革以來,房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)濟(jì)在全國各地蓬勃發(fā)展,廣東省房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)濟(jì)更是在全國房地產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展史上留下絢爛的一筆。在房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)濟(jì)推動(dòng)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的同時(shí),也助長(zhǎng)了房地產(chǎn)泡沫的出現(xiàn)。廣東省商品房銷售均價(jià)多年來持續(xù)高于全國商品房銷售均價(jià),尤其是深圳市和廣州市的房?jī)r(jià)那更是扶搖直上。雖然國家多次強(qiáng)調(diào)要堅(jiān)定不移地調(diào)控房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格,但是廣東省房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格卻始終還是處于高位。貨幣政策到底是否能有效調(diào)控廣東省房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格這一命題受到了金融理論界和實(shí)踐界的一致關(guān)注。 本文在總結(jié)了前人的研究基礎(chǔ)上介紹了貨幣政策及其傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制的相關(guān)內(nèi)容,分析了貨幣政策影響房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的途徑,然后闡述了貨幣政策調(diào)控下廣東省房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展情況,不僅將調(diào)控分為四個(gè)階段,還比較了四個(gè)階段里廣東省房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格受到的影響程度,在該章節(jié)的最后還著重分析的廣東省房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格持續(xù)走高的原因。接著在理論和現(xiàn)狀的研究基礎(chǔ)上運(yùn)用VECM模型對(duì)我國貨幣政策調(diào)控廣東省房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的效果進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析。實(shí)證結(jié)果表明：第一,總體上貨幣政策是可以調(diào)控廣東省房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的,而且數(shù)量型貨幣政策工具(信貸額和存款準(zhǔn)備金率)短期內(nèi)有效,價(jià)格型貨幣政策工具(利率)長(zhǎng)期影響顯著,但同時(shí)貨幣政策對(duì)廣東省房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格變動(dòng)的影響存在時(shí)滯性。第二,寬松的貨幣政策相比于緊縮的貨幣政策對(duì)廣東省房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的影響更為顯著、迅速。最后結(jié)合理論和實(shí)證的分析結(jié)果,提出了加強(qiáng)貨幣政策調(diào)控廣東省房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的相關(guān)建議,不僅要控制信貸,推進(jìn)利率市場(chǎng)化以完善貨幣政策體系,還要完善廣東省房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)運(yùn)作體系,并且配合財(cái)政政策、行政命令等其他手段來調(diào)控廣東省房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格。 最后本文在全文的基礎(chǔ)上作出總結(jié)分析,并指出當(dāng)前研究的不足以及未來的研究方向,同時(shí)再次指出本文的研究意義,即為當(dāng)前政策制定者提供一定的理論和實(shí)證參考。
[Abstract]:Since the reform of housing system in 1998, the real estate economy has been booming all over the country, and the real estate economy of Guangdong Province has left a splendid stroke in the history of the development of the national real estate industry. In the real estate economy to promote real-economy growth, but also contributed to the emergence of real estate bubbles. The average selling price of commercial housing in Guangdong Province has been higher than the national average price for many years, especially in Shenzhen and Guangzhou. Although the state has repeatedly stressed the need to unswervingly control real estate prices, but real estate prices in Guangdong Province has always been high. Whether monetary policy can effectively regulate the real estate prices in Guangdong Province has been paid close attention to by both the financial theorists and the practitioners. On the basis of summarizing the previous studies, this paper introduces the relevant contents of monetary policy and its transmission mechanism, analyzes the ways in which monetary policy affects real estate prices, and then expounds the development of real estate market in Guangdong Province under monetary policy control. This paper not only divides the adjustment and control into four stages, but also compares the influence degree of the real estate price in Guangdong Province in the four stages. At the end of the chapter, the reasons why the real estate prices in Guangdong continue to rise are analyzed. On the basis of theoretical and current research, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the effect of monetary policy on real estate price control in Guangdong Province by using VECM model. The empirical results show that: first, monetary policy can control real estate prices in Guangdong Province in general, and quantitative monetary policy instruments (credit volume and reserve requirement ratio) are effective in the short term. The long-term effect of price monetary policy instrument (interest rate) is significant, but the influence of monetary policy on real estate price in Guangdong Province is delayed. Second, the impact of loose monetary policy on real estate prices in Guangdong Province is more pronounced and rapid than that of tightening monetary policy. Finally, based on the theoretical and empirical analysis results, the paper puts forward some suggestions to strengthen the monetary policy to control the real estate prices in Guangdong Province, not only to control credit, but also to promote the marketization of interest rates in order to improve the monetary policy system. It is also necessary to improve the real estate market operation system in Guangdong Province, and coordinate with fiscal policies, administrative orders and other means to regulate real estate prices in Guangdong Province. In the end, this paper makes a summary and analysis on the basis of the full text, and points out the deficiency of the current research and the future research direction. At the same time, it points out the significance of the research again, that is, to provide some theoretical and empirical reference for the current policy makers.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23;F822.0

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