本文選題：貨幣政策 + 房地產(chǎn)價格�。� 參考：《中南大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：我國自1998年住房體制改革以來,房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)濟在全國各地蓬勃發(fā)展,廣東省房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)濟更是在全國房地產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展史上留下絢爛的一筆。在房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)濟推動實體經(jīng)濟增長的同時,也助長了房地產(chǎn)泡沫的出現(xiàn)。廣東省商品房銷售均價多年來持續(xù)高于全國商品房銷售均價,尤其是深圳市和廣州市的房價那更是扶搖直上。雖然國家多次強調(diào)要堅定不移地調(diào)控房地產(chǎn)價格,但是廣東省房地產(chǎn)價格卻始終還是處于高位。貨幣政策到底是否能有效調(diào)控廣東省房地產(chǎn)價格這一命題受到了金融理論界和實踐界的一致關(guān)注。 本文在總結(jié)了前人的研究基礎(chǔ)上介紹了貨幣政策及其傳導(dǎo)機制的相關(guān)內(nèi)容,分析了貨幣政策影響房地產(chǎn)價格的途徑,然后闡述了貨幣政策調(diào)控下廣東省房地產(chǎn)市場的發(fā)展情況,不僅將調(diào)控分為四個階段,還比較了四個階段里廣東省房地產(chǎn)價格受到的影響程度,在該章節(jié)的最后還著重分析的廣東省房地產(chǎn)價格持續(xù)走高的原因。接著在理論和現(xiàn)狀的研究基礎(chǔ)上運用VECM模型對我國貨幣政策調(diào)控廣東省房地產(chǎn)價格的效果進行了實證分析。實證結(jié)果表明：第一,總體上貨幣政策是可以調(diào)控廣東省房地產(chǎn)價格的,而且數(shù)量型貨幣政策工具(信貸額和存款準備金率)短期內(nèi)有效,價格型貨幣政策工具(利率)長期影響顯著,但同時貨幣政策對廣東省房地產(chǎn)價格變動的影響存在時滯性。第二,寬松的貨幣政策相比于緊縮的貨幣政策對廣東省房地產(chǎn)價格的影響更為顯著、迅速。最后結(jié)合理論和實證的分析結(jié)果,提出了加強貨幣政策調(diào)控廣東省房地產(chǎn)價格的相關(guān)建議,不僅要控制信貸,推進利率市場化以完善貨幣政策體系,還要完善廣東省房地產(chǎn)市場運作體系,并且配合財政政策、行政命令等其他手段來調(diào)控廣東省房地產(chǎn)價格。 最后本文在全文的基礎(chǔ)上作出總結(jié)分析,并指出當(dāng)前研究的不足以及未來的研究方向,同時再次指出本文的研究意義,即為當(dāng)前政策制定者提供一定的理論和實證參考。
[Abstract]:Since the reform of housing system in 1998, the real estate economy has been booming all over the country, and the real estate economy of Guangdong Province has left a splendid stroke in the history of the development of the national real estate industry. In the real estate economy to promote real-economy growth, but also contributed to the emergence of real estate bubbles. The average selling price of commercial housing in Guangdong Province has been higher than the national average price for many years, especially in Shenzhen and Guangzhou. Although the state has repeatedly stressed the need to unswervingly control real estate prices, but real estate prices in Guangdong Province has always been high. Whether monetary policy can effectively regulate the real estate prices in Guangdong Province has been paid close attention to by both the financial theorists and the practitioners. On the basis of summarizing the previous studies, this paper introduces the relevant contents of monetary policy and its transmission mechanism, analyzes the ways in which monetary policy affects real estate prices, and then expounds the development of real estate market in Guangdong Province under monetary policy control. This paper not only divides the adjustment and control into four stages, but also compares the influence degree of the real estate price in Guangdong Province in the four stages. At the end of the chapter, the reasons why the real estate prices in Guangdong continue to rise are analyzed. On the basis of theoretical and current research, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the effect of monetary policy on real estate price control in Guangdong Province by using VECM model. The empirical results show that: first, monetary policy can control real estate prices in Guangdong Province in general, and quantitative monetary policy instruments (credit volume and reserve requirement ratio) are effective in the short term. The long-term effect of price monetary policy instrument (interest rate) is significant, but the influence of monetary policy on real estate price in Guangdong Province is delayed. Second, the impact of loose monetary policy on real estate prices in Guangdong Province is more pronounced and rapid than that of tightening monetary policy. Finally, based on the theoretical and empirical analysis results, the paper puts forward some suggestions to strengthen the monetary policy to control the real estate prices in Guangdong Province, not only to control credit, but also to promote the marketization of interest rates in order to improve the monetary policy system. It is also necessary to improve the real estate market operation system in Guangdong Province, and coordinate with fiscal policies, administrative orders and other means to regulate real estate prices in Guangdong Province. In the end, this paper makes a summary and analysis on the basis of the full text, and points out the deficiency of the current research and the future research direction. At the same time, it points out the significance of the research again, that is, to provide some theoretical and empirical reference for the current policy makers.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F299.23;F822.0

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 侯亮;吳永生;;論城市房價與人口變動的互動關(guān)系——基于北京、深圳、成都數(shù)據(jù)的實證分析[J];北方經(jīng)濟;2009年16期

2 岳意定;王振;周彬文;;貨幣政策工具對房地產(chǎn)業(yè)投資影響的比較分析——基于協(xié)整理論與VECM的實證研究[J];山東工商學(xué)院學(xué)報;2007年05期

3 江群;曾令華;;我國貨幣政策信貸傳導(dǎo)渠道:理論模型及實證分析[J];財經(jīng)論叢;2008年03期

4 盛松成;貨幣政策能否調(diào)控房地產(chǎn)價格[J];銀行家;2003年09期

5 王振山,王志強;我國貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)途徑的實證研究[J];財經(jīng)問題研究;2000年12期

6 王來福;郭峰;;貨幣政策對房地產(chǎn)價格的動態(tài)影響研究——基于VAR模型的實證[J];財經(jīng)問題研究;2007年11期

7 周京奎;貨幣政策、銀行貸款與住宅價格——對中國4個直轄市的實證研究[J];財貿(mào)經(jīng)濟;2005年05期

8 高波;王先柱;;中國房地產(chǎn)市場貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)機制的有效性分析:2000—2007[J];財貿(mào)經(jīng)濟;2009年03期

9 戴國強;張建華;;貨幣政策的房地產(chǎn)價格傳導(dǎo)機制研究[J];財貿(mào)經(jīng)濟;2009年12期

10 吳老二;劉婧;;人口遷移與房地產(chǎn)價格——以廣東省為例[J];地域研究與開發(fā);2007年04期

，

本文編號：2087329