本文選題：居民儲(chǔ)蓄率 + 居民消費(fèi)�。� 參考：《西南大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：一直維持在高位的居民儲(chǔ)蓄率為投資提供了充沛的資金來(lái)源,這也是我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)維持快速發(fā)展的重要因素。更為重要的是,源源不斷的資金流保證了金融機(jī)構(gòu)的流動(dòng)性,增強(qiáng)了銀行的穩(wěn)定性。隨著2008年席卷全球的金融危機(jī)的持續(xù)蔓延,全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增速都在放緩。我國(guó)作為一個(gè)外貿(mào)依賴型的國(guó)家,全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的下滑對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響不容小視。所以,研究城鄉(xiāng)居民儲(chǔ)蓄率的變化對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響對(duì)于拉動(dòng)內(nèi)需、保持我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的又好又快發(fā)展是迫在眉睫。本文在充分考慮我國(guó)特殊的“二元經(jīng)濟(jì)體制”的現(xiàn)狀的情況下,對(duì)城鎮(zhèn)和農(nóng)村分別建立了居民儲(chǔ)蓄率的變化與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間關(guān)系的實(shí)證模型,再通過(guò)計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)分析方法估計(jì)具有相關(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)含義的參數(shù),從而通過(guò)對(duì)相關(guān)參數(shù)值涵義的分析得出本文的結(jié)論。結(jié)論表明,在我國(guó)改革開(kāi)放以來(lái)的這三十年里,農(nóng)村居民儲(chǔ)蓄率對(duì)農(nóng)村的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展具有很強(qiáng)的負(fù)面影響；城鎮(zhèn)居民儲(chǔ)蓄率對(duì)城鎮(zhèn)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展則影響不大,總體上影響并不顯著。最后,本文根據(jù)理論分析和實(shí)證分析所得出的結(jié)論,提出了幾點(diǎn)政策建議。 一、研究結(jié)論 1.城鎮(zhèn)居民儲(chǔ)蓄率對(duì)城鎮(zhèn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率的影響不大,而農(nóng)村居民儲(chǔ)蓄率的變化則阻礙著農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展。 文章首先通過(guò)理論推導(dǎo)得出居民儲(chǔ)蓄率與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率和投資增長(zhǎng)率之間的理論關(guān)系式,然后根據(jù)收集的數(shù)據(jù),采用計(jì)量方法得出我國(guó)城鄉(xiāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率與城鄉(xiāng)居民儲(chǔ)蓄率和城鄉(xiāng)投資增長(zhǎng)率之間的實(shí)證模型。通過(guò)檢驗(yàn)系數(shù)判定選擇指標(biāo)的顯著性,從而剔除不顯著的指標(biāo),最后推導(dǎo)出的實(shí)證模型很好地說(shuō)明了城鄉(xiāng)居民儲(chǔ)蓄率與城鄉(xiāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率之間的關(guān)系。 2.我國(guó)居民的儲(chǔ)蓄存款仍在增加,預(yù)防性儲(chǔ)蓄在居民儲(chǔ)蓄存款中占相當(dāng)大地比重。 我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)飛速發(fā)展,城鄉(xiāng)居民的收入水平迅速增加,但住房、醫(yī)療、教育等高昂的價(jià)格還是讓城鄉(xiāng)居民的未來(lái)充滿了變數(shù)。面對(duì)未來(lái)的不確定性,城鄉(xiāng)居民勢(shì)必會(huì)選擇捂緊口袋,為預(yù)防而儲(chǔ)蓄。 儲(chǔ)蓄作為一種自發(fā)性行為,如果想通過(guò)某種政策性手段,使得居民儲(chǔ)蓄在短期能有一個(gè)極大的變化,是不符合現(xiàn)實(shí)情況的；而且我國(guó)的傳統(tǒng)文化一向以“勤儉節(jié)約”作為美德,所以使得城鄉(xiāng)居民的儲(chǔ)蓄率發(fā)生巨大波動(dòng)在短期內(nèi)是不可能的。 3.居民儲(chǔ)蓄對(duì)金融體系和資本市場(chǎng)的巨大作用使居民儲(chǔ)蓄率必須保持穩(wěn)健,否則可能會(huì)掀起經(jīng)濟(jì)的巨大的波動(dòng),在今天這樣一個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化的世界里甚至?xí)暗饺颉?這里所說(shuō)的儲(chǔ)蓄率要保持穩(wěn)健,是指儲(chǔ)蓄率在一段時(shí)期內(nèi)的波動(dòng)應(yīng)該處于一個(gè)合理的區(qū)間,而不應(yīng)在短期內(nèi)有巨大的變化。儲(chǔ)蓄率隨著社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展而變化,儲(chǔ)蓄率能否處于一個(gè)最優(yōu)的區(qū)間,關(guān)鍵要看其是否符合社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的客觀要求,是否能夠使公共經(jīng)濟(jì)與私人經(jīng)濟(jì)處于均衡的發(fā)展?fàn)顟B(tài)。但在實(shí)踐中,這種客觀存在的一個(gè)最優(yōu)的區(qū)間卻無(wú)法自動(dòng)實(shí)現(xiàn),由于儲(chǔ)蓄實(shí)踐中的各種主觀因素的介入和擾動(dòng),尤其是公共分配行為的扭曲和謀取集團(tuán)利益現(xiàn)象,使得儲(chǔ)蓄率很難處于一個(gè)最優(yōu)的區(qū)間,總是處于一個(gè)接近于最優(yōu)的區(qū)間的這么一個(gè)范圍里。所以,如何促使儲(chǔ)蓄率處于一個(gè)最優(yōu)的區(qū)間,如何使儲(chǔ)蓄對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的促進(jìn)作用能夠向著一個(gè)更加健康的方向發(fā)展,必須從以下幾個(gè)方面采取措施：一、優(yōu)化多層次的社會(huì)保障體系;二、拓展儲(chǔ)蓄向投資的轉(zhuǎn)化渠道;三、積極開(kāi)拓新型消費(fèi)市場(chǎng),完善消費(fèi)信貸政策。 二、政策建議 針對(duì)文術(shù)得出的研究結(jié)論,儲(chǔ)蓄率的變化能夠在短期內(nèi)促進(jìn)實(shí)際經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率的提高。筆者提出了以下幾點(diǎn)參考性的思考政策建議： 1.優(yōu)化多層次的社會(huì)保障體系,解決城鄉(xiāng)居民的后顧之憂。 優(yōu)化多層次的社會(huì)保障體系,尤其是要加快構(gòu)建農(nóng)村居民的社會(huì)保障體系,從而可以減少農(nóng)村居民預(yù)防性儲(chǔ)蓄的那一部分,減少農(nóng)村居民儲(chǔ)蓄率的變化對(duì)農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的抑制作用。 2.拓展儲(chǔ)蓄向投資轉(zhuǎn)化渠道,使城鄉(xiāng)居民的儲(chǔ)蓄資金平穩(wěn)變動(dòng)。 儲(chǔ)蓄資金的波動(dòng)過(guò)大對(duì)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的健康發(fā)展不利,因此在積極拓展儲(chǔ)蓄向投資轉(zhuǎn)化渠道的同時(shí),要保證儲(chǔ)蓄資金健康、合理地轉(zhuǎn)化為投資。 3.積極開(kāi)拓新型消費(fèi)市場(chǎng),完善消費(fèi)信貸政策,有利于拉動(dòng)內(nèi)需促進(jìn)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展。 隨著生活水平的提高和生活節(jié)奏的加快,一些傳統(tǒng)的消費(fèi)觀念已不能滿足時(shí)下作為未來(lái)消費(fèi)主力軍的“80后”“90后”對(duì)時(shí)代的需求。隨之而來(lái)的就是一些新的消費(fèi)熱潮的流行,如網(wǎng)上購(gòu)物的火爆、綠色食品的熱銷、快餐行業(yè)的繁榮等等。 新的消費(fèi)潮流帶給人們便利的同時(shí),也帶來(lái)了一些監(jiān)管上的困境,如網(wǎng)上詐騙、綠色食品的以假充真、快餐行業(yè)的健康衛(wèi)生標(biāo)準(zhǔn)是否達(dá)標(biāo)等等。另外,隨著中西文化的交流,當(dāng)代作為消費(fèi)主力軍的“80后”“90后”的消費(fèi)觀念也在悄悄地發(fā)生著變化,而且其對(duì)生活質(zhì)量的要求也大大提高了,超前消費(fèi)儼然已成為其頭腦中唯一的消費(fèi)觀念。所以完善消費(fèi)信貸政策,促進(jìn)新型消費(fèi)市場(chǎng)的規(guī)范化也是要著力解決的一大問(wèn)題。
[Abstract]:As a foreign trade - dependent country , global economic growth is slowing . As a foreign trade - dependent country , the economic growth of our country is slowing . As a foreign trade - dependent country , the decline of the global economy is urgent for China ' s economy .
In the end , according to the conclusion drawn from the theoretical analysis and the empirical analysis , several policy suggestions are put forward .

I . Conclusions of the study

1 . The urban residents ' savings rate has little effect on the growth rate of urban economy , while the change of rural residents ' savings rate is hindering the development of rural economy .

Based on the collected data , the paper derives the empirical model between the growth rate of urban and rural economy and the rate of urban and rural residents ' savings rate and the growth rate of urban and rural investment .

2 . The savings deposits of our residents are still increasing , and preventive savings account for a significant proportion of the population ' s savings deposits .

With the rapid development of our economy , the income level of urban and rural residents has increased rapidly , but the high prices such as housing , medical care and education still fill the future of urban and rural residents . Facing the uncertainty of the future , the urban and rural residents must choose to cover their pockets for prevention and saving .

As a kind of spontaneous behavior , if you want to adopt some kind of policy , so that the residents ' savings can have a great change in the short - term , which is not in accordance with the reality ;
Moreover , the traditional culture of our country has always been the virtue of " diligence and frugality " , so the great fluctuation of the savings rate of urban and rural residents will not be possible in the short term .

3 . The huge role of resident savings in the financial system and the capital market must be robust , otherwise there may be huge fluctuations in the economy , even in the world of today ' s economic globalization .

In practice , it is difficult to achieve the objective requirement of social and economic development , whether the savings rate can be in an optimal interval , and whether it can make public economy and private economy be in a balanced development state .

II . Policy recommendations

According to the research conclusion drawn from the literature , the change of the savings rate can promote the real economic growth rate in the short term .

1 . To optimize the multi - level social security system and solve the worries of urban and rural residents .

To optimize the multi - level social security system , especially to accelerate the construction of the rural residents ' social security system , so as to reduce the part of the rural residents ' preventive savings , reduce the change of the rural residents ' savings rate to the rural economic development .

2 . Expand the savings to the investment transformation channel , so that the savings fund of the urban and rural residents can change smoothly .

The fluctuation of the savings funds is unfavorable to the healthy development of the national economy . Therefore , it is necessary to ensure the healthy and rational transformation of the savings fund to the investment while actively expanding the channels for the conversion of savings to investment .

3 . actively explore the new consumption market and improve the consumer credit policy , which is beneficial to the promotion of domestic demand for the development of national economy .

With the improvement of living standard and the quickening of the pace of life , some traditional consumption ideas cannot be satisfied as the " 90 days " of the future consumption main force to the times . The following is the popularity of some new consumption hot trends , such as the online shopping , the hot sale of green food , the prosperity of the fast food industry , and so on .

The new consumption trend brings convenience to people , and also brings some regulatory difficulties , such as online fraud , green food , the healthy sanitation standard of fast food industry and so on . In addition , with the exchange of Chinese and Western culture , the consumption concept of modern consumption as the main force of consumption has changed quietly , and the demand for quality of life has been greatly improved , so the consumption credit policy is improved , and the standardization of the new consumer market is also a major problem to be solved .
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F832.22;F124;F224

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