本文選題：信貸配給 + 財(cái)政政策�。� 參考：《山東大學(xué)》2012年博士論文

【摘要】：1998年以來(lái),伴隨著我國(guó)財(cái)政實(shí)力的迅猛增長(zhǎng),我國(guó)政府越來(lái)越注重使用財(cái)政政策工具以促進(jìn)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)、快速和健康的發(fā)展。我們應(yīng)該清楚認(rèn)識(shí)到：財(cái)政政策對(duì)總體經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展往往僅能發(fā)揮間接和輔助功能,成功的財(cái)政政策應(yīng)該,也必須能夠更加有效地撬動(dòng)私人投資,通過(guò)私人投資穩(wěn)健和持續(xù)的增長(zhǎng)來(lái)達(dá)成四大宏觀(guān)政策目標(biāo)。因此,首當(dāng)其沖的問(wèn)題就是要厘清財(cái)政政策與私人投資之間的關(guān)聯(lián)機(jī)制。只有在解決此問(wèn)題之后,才有可能制定出最優(yōu)財(cái)政政策以最大限度地“擠入”私人投資。 目前主流學(xué)界在研究財(cái)政政策與私人投資關(guān)聯(lián)機(jī)制時(shí)大多采用IS-LM理論,但其理論解釋力及政策指導(dǎo)意義卻遠(yuǎn)不能令人滿(mǎn)意。一方面,主流理論就財(cái)政政策對(duì)私人投資到底是否具有擠入效應(yīng),具有多大的擠入效應(yīng)這個(gè)問(wèn)題上仍沒(méi)有達(dá)成一致見(jiàn)解；另一方面,IS-LM理論忽略了銀行信貸市場(chǎng)上普遍存在且影響深刻的信貸配給因素,這個(gè)過(guò)強(qiáng)的假設(shè)與現(xiàn)實(shí)情況相距甚遠(yuǎn),很有可能導(dǎo)致有偏結(jié)論的出現(xiàn)。部分開(kāi)創(chuàng)性文獻(xiàn)考慮到信貸配給因素在分析財(cái)政政策對(duì)私人投資影響時(shí)的重要性。這些研究在建模時(shí)對(duì)金融市場(chǎng)建立了兩個(gè)基本假設(shè),但這兩個(gè)基本假設(shè)只是比較貼近發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家金融市場(chǎng),卻并不符合發(fā)展中國(guó)家,尤其是不符合現(xiàn)階段中國(guó)金融市場(chǎng)和銀行信貸市場(chǎng)的根本特征。直接套用此類(lèi)模型來(lái)分析和指導(dǎo)我國(guó)的具體問(wèn)題將存在較大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 本文針對(duì)現(xiàn)有模型中金融市場(chǎng)的基本假設(shè)進(jìn)行修正,以貼近發(fā)展中國(guó)家的具體情況,從而建立起發(fā)展中國(guó)家模型來(lái)研究財(cái)政政策、私人投資和銀行業(yè)信貸配給三者之間的關(guān)聯(lián)性。根據(jù)發(fā)展中國(guó)家模型進(jìn)行推演,論文得出兩個(gè)基本命題。命題揭示出了財(cái)政政策對(duì)私人投資的影響會(huì)隨著銀行業(yè)信貸配給程度的變化會(huì)呈現(xiàn)出典型的非線(xiàn)性特征,即財(cái)政支出對(duì)私人投資的擠入效應(yīng)與銀行信貸配給程度呈現(xiàn)正向相關(guān)關(guān)系,并且這種關(guān)聯(lián)機(jī)制還會(huì)受到其他融資渠道發(fā)展水平的制約。為使發(fā)展中國(guó)家模型的結(jié)論進(jìn)一步精確化,本文建立包含家庭、企業(yè)、銀行和政府的四部門(mén)一般均衡模型來(lái)深化相關(guān)問(wèn)題分析。四部門(mén)一般均衡模型得出的結(jié)論進(jìn)一步夯實(shí)了之前發(fā)展中國(guó)家模型得出的兩個(gè)命題。 論文的實(shí)證部分針對(duì)全國(guó)大陸30個(gè)省、直轄市和自治區(qū)(不含西藏)的面板數(shù)據(jù),采用面板門(mén)限協(xié)整模型(PTCM)進(jìn)行估計(jì)以檢驗(yàn)兩個(gè)基本命題。針對(duì)全國(guó)整體數(shù)據(jù),以及針對(duì)東、中、西部三大區(qū)域的PTCM估計(jì)(包括敏感度分析)結(jié)果都較好的表現(xiàn)出財(cái)政支出對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)私人投資的擠入效應(yīng)會(huì)隨著銀行信貸配給程度的增加而提升的態(tài)勢(shì),從而驗(yàn)證了命題1；三大區(qū)域其他融資渠道的發(fā)展程度由低到高分別為中部、西部和東部,而財(cái)政政策對(duì)私人投資擠入效應(yīng)的大小由高到低也保持這一順序(包括敏感度分析),從而驗(yàn)證了命題2。 論文的理論和實(shí)證分析闡釋了我國(guó)銀行信貸配給、財(cái)政政策和國(guó)內(nèi)私人投資三者之間的關(guān)聯(lián)機(jī)制,而這種關(guān)聯(lián)機(jī)制的存在與我國(guó)金融業(yè)當(dāng)前發(fā)展水平的相對(duì)落后密不可分。本文從短期和長(zhǎng)期兩個(gè)層次入手,就如何提升財(cái)政政策對(duì)私人投資擠入效應(yīng)而提出了一整套較為完備的政策建議,其中短期政策建議主要涉及財(cái)政政策出臺(tái)時(shí)機(jī)的選擇以及財(cái)政政策與其他宏觀(guān)調(diào)控手段合理搭配等問(wèn)題。這些問(wèn)題的深入探討都將有助于取得更好的財(cái)政政策效果。 本文共分7章,第1-4章是理論部分,包括導(dǎo)論、相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)綜述、理論分析和研究對(duì)象闡述,第5-6章是實(shí)證分析部分,第7章為結(jié)論、政策建議與研究展望。 本文可能的創(chuàng)新之處主要有以下兩點(diǎn)： 1.建立發(fā)展中國(guó)家模型。 (1)調(diào)整現(xiàn)有相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)對(duì)金融市場(chǎng)的基本假設(shè)以符合發(fā)展中國(guó)家基本特征,在此基礎(chǔ)上重新演繹并詮釋了發(fā)展中國(guó)家財(cái)政支出、私人投資與銀行信貸配給程度之間的關(guān)聯(lián)機(jī)制,并得出兩個(gè)基本命題： 命題1：發(fā)展中國(guó)家財(cái)政政策對(duì)私人投資的整體政策效應(yīng)會(huì)表現(xiàn)出某種明顯的非線(xiàn)性特征,即財(cái)政支出對(duì)私人投資的擠入效應(yīng)與銀行信貸配給程度之間呈現(xiàn)正向相關(guān)關(guān)系,而銀行業(yè)信貸配給程度的變化則是導(dǎo)致這種非線(xiàn)性特征發(fā)生的根本原因。此命題與發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家模型主要結(jié)論相反； 命題2：財(cái)政支出對(duì)私人投資的擠入效應(yīng)與銀行信貸配給程度之間的相關(guān)關(guān)系會(huì)受到其他融資渠道發(fā)展水平的影響,即在大致相同的銀行信貸配給條件下,如果某些發(fā)展中國(guó)家或地區(qū)其他融資渠道發(fā)展水平存在較大差異,則這些發(fā)展中國(guó)家或地區(qū)出臺(tái)財(cái)政政策對(duì)私人投資的擠入效應(yīng)與這些國(guó)家或地區(qū)間其他融資渠道發(fā)展水平呈現(xiàn)負(fù)向相關(guān)； (2)構(gòu)建包含家庭、企業(yè)、銀行和政府四部門(mén)的一般均衡模型。本文借鑒并發(fā)展了Freixas and Rochet(2008)提出的包括家庭、企業(yè)和銀行的三部門(mén)模型,構(gòu)建了包含家庭、企業(yè)、銀行和政府四部門(mén)的一般均衡模型,進(jìn)一步細(xì)化和拓展了發(fā)展中國(guó)家模型所得出的結(jié)論； 2.對(duì)現(xiàn)有的面板門(mén)限協(xié)整模型進(jìn)行改進(jìn)。論文在借鑒歐陽(yáng)志剛(2008)模型的基礎(chǔ)上又進(jìn)行了部分調(diào)整： (1)使用Kao面板協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)來(lái)代替Choi and Saikkonen(2005)提出的面板協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)。 (2)采用更為有效的自助法(bootstrap)方法代替Monte Carlo模擬方法對(duì)門(mén)限閥值進(jìn)行估計(jì)。
[Abstract]:Since 1998 , with the rapid growth of our country ' s financial strength , our government has paid more and more attention to the use of fiscal policy tools to promote the sustained , rapid and healthy development of national economy . We should realize that fiscal policy can only exert indirect and auxiliary functions on overall economic development , and the successful fiscal policy should , and must be able to make more effective use of private investment to achieve the four macro - policy objectives through the sound and sustained growth of private investment .

In the current mainstream academic circle , the IS - LM theory is mostly adopted in the study of the mechanism of the association between fiscal policy and private investment , but its theoretical explanation and policy directive significance are far from satisfactory . On the one hand , the mainstream theory has not reached a consensus on whether the financial policy has an extruding effect on private investment , and has many crowding effects .
On the other hand , IS - LM theory ignores the widespread and influential factors of credit rationing in the bank credit market , which is very likely to lead to the emergence of biased conclusions . Some open literature takes into account the importance of credit rationing factors in analyzing the influence of fiscal policy on private investment .

Based on the developing country model , the paper draws two basic propositions . The proposition reveals that the influence of fiscal policy on private investment can be restricted by the development level of other financing channels . In order to make the conclusion of developing country model more accurate , this paper establishes four general equilibrium models including family , enterprise , bank and government to deepen the analysis of related problems .

The empirical part of this paper is aimed at the panel data of 30 provinces , municipalities directly under the Central Government and autonomous regions ( excluding Tibet ) in the whole country . The panel threshold co - integration model ( PTCM ) is used to estimate two basic propositions .
The degree of development of other financing channels in the three major regions is from low to high , respectively , in the central , western and east , while fiscal policy keeps this order ( including sensitivity analysis ) on the size of the crowding effect of private investment , thereby verifying proposition 2 .

Based on the short - term and long - term two levels , this paper puts forward a complete set of policy suggestions on how to improve the fiscal policy ' s choice of fiscal policy and the rational collocation of fiscal policy and other macro - control measures .

Chapter 7 , Chapter 1 - 4 is a theoretical part , including introduction , related literature review , theoretical analysis and research object . Chapter 5 - 6 is an empirical analysis part . Chapter 7 is the conclusion , policy suggestion and research prospect .

Possible innovations of this article include the following two points :

1 . Building a developing country model .

( 1 ) To adjust the basic assumptions of financial markets in accordance with the basic characteristics of developing countries , and reinterpret and interpret the mechanism between financial expenditure , private investment and bank credit rationing in developing countries , and draw two basic propositions :

Proposition 1 : The overall policy effect of developing country ' s fiscal policy on private investment shows some obvious non - linear characteristic , that is , the effect of fiscal expenditure on private investment is positively correlated with the degree of bank credit rationing , and the change of credit rationing degree is the root cause of this non - linear characteristic . This proposition is contrary to the main conclusion of developed country model .


Proposition 2 : The relationship between the squeezing effect of fiscal expenditure on private investment and the level of bank credit rationing will be influenced by the development level of other financing channels , that is , if there is a large difference in the development level of other financing channels in some developing countries or regions under the same bank credit rationing conditions , the crowding effect of fiscal policy on private investment in some developing countries or regions is negatively related to the development level of other financing channels in those countries or regions ;


( 2 ) To build a general equilibrium model which includes four sectors of family , enterprise , bank and government . This paper draws on and develops the three - sector model of Freixas and Rochet ( 2008 ) , which includes family , enterprise and bank , and constructs a general equilibrium model including family , enterprise , bank and government , further thinning and expanding the conclusion drawn by developing country model ;


2 . The existing panel threshold co - integration model is improved . Based on the model of Yuanyang Zhigang ( 2008 ) , the thesis also makes some adjustments :

( 1 ) The panel co - integration test proposed by Choi and Saikkonen ( 2005 ) was used instead of Choi and Saikkonen ( 2005 ) .

( 2 ) The threshold threshold is estimated using a more effective bootstrap method instead of the Monte Carlo simulation method .
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F832.4;F812.0;F224

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