本文選題：次貸危機(jī) + 擴(kuò)散機(jī)制�。� 參考：《哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)》2012年博士論文

【摘要】：20世紀(jì)九十年代以來，國際資本的迅速流動(dòng)，金融衍生品的不斷推陳出新，巨額的短期資本在股市和匯市的頻繁進(jìn)出，為投資者提供了廣泛的投資機(jī)會(huì)，也為各國經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展提供了優(yōu)越的外部條件，同時(shí)也給世界經(jīng)濟(jì)和國際金融領(lǐng)域的穩(wěn)定帶來了新的沖擊和不穩(wěn)定性。在此背景下爆發(fā)的大大小小的金融危機(jī)，已成為當(dāng)今世界經(jīng)濟(jì)生活中一種常態(tài)。本研究以次貸危機(jī)為研究對(duì)象，探尋次貸危機(jī)的形成機(jī)理，闡釋次貸危機(jī)擴(kuò)散的動(dòng)力機(jī)制和傳播路徑，通過定性分析和定量分析相結(jié)合的方法，剖析次貸危機(jī)的擴(kuò)散機(jī)制，并提出防范和化解金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的策略體系。 在對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)、金融危機(jī)和次貸危機(jī)等相關(guān)核心概念界定的基礎(chǔ)之上，對(duì)次貸危機(jī)產(chǎn)生的根源進(jìn)行了規(guī)范分析，得出了貨幣內(nèi)在矛盾的激化、經(jīng)濟(jì)人利己和利他的沖突，以及資本內(nèi)在矛盾的激化為其產(chǎn)生的根源；通過對(duì)次貸危機(jī)爆發(fā)的實(shí)際考察，系統(tǒng)總結(jié)了次貸危機(jī)升級(jí)為金融危機(jī)，金融危機(jī)轉(zhuǎn)化為經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)的演進(jìn)機(jī)理，得出了次貸危機(jī)從信貸市場(chǎng)到資本市場(chǎng)，從虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì)到實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的擴(kuò)散機(jī)制，，從而奠定了全文的理論基礎(chǔ)。 從系統(tǒng)論的觀點(diǎn)分析了次貸危機(jī)擴(kuò)散的基礎(chǔ)、渠道和機(jī)理，得出了其擴(kuò)散的系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)機(jī)制。從規(guī)范經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的范式分析了次貸危機(jī)擴(kuò)散的效應(yīng)，即在次貸危機(jī)擴(kuò)散過程中存在著凱恩斯效應(yīng)、威克塞爾效應(yīng)、財(cái)富效應(yīng)和資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表效應(yīng)。并從貿(mào)易、投資、消費(fèi)者信心三個(gè)角度分析了次貸危機(jī)對(duì)中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響，并對(duì)其實(shí)際影響進(jìn)行了總體判斷。 再從貿(mào)易渠道、金融渠道和心理渠道對(duì)次貸危機(jī)的擴(kuò)散進(jìn)行了實(shí)證研究。得出了次貸危機(jī)貿(mào)易渠道的擴(kuò)散主要源于匯率的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)性貶值，并且競(jìng)爭(zhēng)性貶值的非合作博弈納什均衡比所有國家聯(lián)合行動(dòng)共同對(duì)付危機(jī)的合作均衡更差的結(jié)論；金融渠道的擴(kuò)散主要源于利率和匯率的雙重作用所導(dǎo)致的估值效應(yīng)而產(chǎn)生的，得出了估值效應(yīng)發(fā)生的利率和匯率條件；而心理渠道的擴(kuò)散主要源于人們預(yù)期的變化所導(dǎo)致消費(fèi)、投資減少所產(chǎn)生的。三種擴(kuò)散渠道的機(jī)理均來源于實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)體系中恒定狀態(tài)的打破。 最后通過對(duì)傳統(tǒng)的金融危機(jī)預(yù)警的信號(hào)分析模型進(jìn)行修正，選取24個(gè)新興工業(yè)化國家為樣本，構(gòu)建了金融危機(jī)的預(yù)警模型。同時(shí)，也通過對(duì)模型的實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)，給出了次貸危機(jī)擴(kuò)散的深度和廣度的定量解答和數(shù)理證明。針對(duì)次貸危機(jī)擴(kuò)散的實(shí)際情況，給出了防范和化解次貸危機(jī)的相關(guān)對(duì)策和建議，提出了以內(nèi)需拉動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)是應(yīng)對(duì)金融危機(jī)的根本措施，加快實(shí)現(xiàn)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)是防范國際經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)的有效途徑，建立金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防御機(jī)制是維護(hù)金融體系穩(wěn)定的有力措施，以及維持人民幣匯率穩(wěn)定以防止危機(jī)進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)散傳播的對(duì)策和建議。
[Abstract]:Since the 1990s, the rapid flow of international capital, the continuous introduction of financial derivatives, and the frequent inflow and exit of huge short-term capital in the stock and foreign exchange markets have provided investors with a wide range of investment opportunities. It also provides favorable external conditions for the economic development of various countries, and also brings new shocks and instability to the stability of the world economy and international financial field. In this context, the financial crises, large and small, have become the norm in the world economic life. This research takes the subprime mortgage crisis as the research object, explores the formation mechanism of the sub-prime mortgage crisis, explains the dynamic mechanism and transmission path of the sub-prime mortgage crisis diffusion, and analyzes the diffusion mechanism of the sub-prime mortgage crisis through the combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. At the same time, the paper puts forward the strategy system of preventing and defusing financial risks. On the basis of defining related core concepts such as economic crisis, financial crisis and sub-prime crisis, this paper analyzes the root causes of sub-prime mortgage crisis, and concludes that the internal contradiction of currency is intensified, and the conflict between economic person and altruism. Through the actual investigation of the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis, this paper systematically summarizes the evolution mechanism of the sub-prime mortgage crisis to the financial crisis and the financial crisis into the economic crisis. The diffusion mechanism of subprime mortgage crisis from credit market to capital market, from virtual economy to real economy is obtained, thus laying the theoretical foundation for the full text. This paper analyzes the basis, channel and mechanism of the spread of subprime mortgage crisis from the point of view of system theory, and obtains the system dynamic mechanism of its diffusion. This paper analyzes the diffusion effect of subprime mortgage crisis from the paradigm of normative economics, that is, the Keynesian effect, Wicksell effect, wealth effect and balance sheet effect in the process of sub-prime crisis diffusion. This paper also analyzes the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis on China's economy from the perspectives of trade, investment and consumer confidence, and makes a general judgment on its actual impact. And then from the trade channels, financial channels and psychological channels to the spread of subprime mortgage crisis empirical research. It is concluded that the diffusion of sub-prime crisis trade channel is mainly due to the competitive devaluation of exchange rate, and the non-cooperative game Nash equilibrium of competitive devaluation is worse than the cooperative equilibrium of all countries in joint action to deal with the crisis. The diffusion of financial channels is mainly caused by the valuation effect caused by the dual action of interest rate and exchange rate, and the interest rate and exchange rate conditions of the valuation effect are obtained, while the diffusion of psychological channel is mainly caused by the consumption caused by the change of people's expectation. The result of reduced investment. The mechanism of the three diffusion channels comes from the breakup of the constant state in the real economy system. Finally, by modifying the traditional signal analysis model of financial crisis early warning, 24 newly industrialized countries are selected as samples to construct the early warning model of financial crisis. At the same time, through the empirical test of the model, the quantitative solution and mathematical proof of the depth and breadth of the spread of the subprime mortgage crisis are given. In view of the actual situation of the spread of the sub-prime mortgage crisis, this paper puts forward the relevant countermeasures and suggestions to prevent and resolve the sub-prime mortgage crisis, and puts forward that domestic demand is the fundamental measure to deal with the financial crisis. Speeding up the upgrading of the industrial structure is an effective way to prevent international economic fluctuations, and the establishment of a financial risk defense mechanism is a powerful measure to maintain the stability of the financial system. And to maintain the RMB exchange rate stability to prevent the spread of further spread of the crisis countermeasures and suggestions.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F831.59

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本文編號(hào)：1984277