本文選題：管理層討論與分析 + 有用性�。� 參考：《西南財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：提高上市公司信息、披露質(zhì)量一直是我國構(gòu)建有效資本市場的重點工作之一,隨著我國資本市場的不斷發(fā)展和完善,加之經(jīng)營環(huán)境的復(fù)雜使得上市公司本身經(jīng)營業(yè)務(wù)愈加復(fù)雜,上市公司提供的傳統(tǒng)財務(wù)報告中包含的財務(wù)信息已不能滿足外部信息使用者的信息需求,對財務(wù)報表起輔助和解釋作用的非財務(wù)信息越來越受到重視。我國自2002年引入管理層討論與分析(Management DiscussionAnalysis,MDA)披露制度,此后證監(jiān)會主要在《公開發(fā)行證券的公司信息、披露內(nèi)容與格式準(zhǔn)則》中的第2號年報準(zhǔn)則和第3號半年報(中期報告)準(zhǔn)則中對其進(jìn)行相關(guān)規(guī)定。我國證監(jiān)會自2002年至2005年每年均對年報披露準(zhǔn)則進(jìn)行了修訂,其中均涉及MDA信息披露的相關(guān)規(guī)定,2005年的年報準(zhǔn)則修訂中,證監(jiān)會對MDA信息、披露的相關(guān)要求進(jìn)行了細(xì)化,2007年年報披露準(zhǔn)則再次進(jìn)行修訂之后一直沿用至今。2011年12月30日證監(jiān)會公布了年報披露準(zhǔn)則修訂意見稿,其中對MDA披露制度進(jìn)行了相應(yīng)的修訂。 我國引入MDA信息披露制度剛好10個年頭,理論和實務(wù)界對其研究均較少。MDA中包含的敘述性信息是否真如引入制度時監(jiān)管層的初衷以及投資者對它的萬般期待那樣提供了有效的信息?在細(xì)化后的管理層討論與分析披露制度中包含的大量信息中哪些信息的作用最大?這些問題都需要實證的研究——進(jìn)行回答。國內(nèi)對MDA信息披露的研究大多停留在理論層面,如對其披露現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行概括和描述、對國內(nèi)外MDA信息披露制度進(jìn)行比較等；國內(nèi)在其有用性方面的實證研究文獻(xiàn)屈指可數(shù),僅有的幾篇文獻(xiàn)多為使用制度引入之初的年報數(shù)據(jù)和信息,對MDA信息的有用性、影響其信息程度的因素等進(jìn)行籠統(tǒng)分析,且國內(nèi)文獻(xiàn)基本全部選用單一年度的年報信息進(jìn)行分析,以此使得其結(jié)果有一定的偶然性。 針對國內(nèi)MDA信息披露制度有用性實證研究的現(xiàn)狀,考慮到證監(jiān)會年報披露準(zhǔn)則的修訂情況,本文選用2008-2010年度的年報信息為基礎(chǔ)進(jìn)行研究。證監(jiān)會在2007年對年報準(zhǔn)則進(jìn)行修訂后至2011年12月才進(jìn)行了再一次的修訂意見征求,因此2008-2010年的上市公司年報采用的是同一披露準(zhǔn)則,運(yùn)用2008年年報MDA中的信息為基礎(chǔ)研究,可同時對MDA中的信息對公司短期(一年)和長期(兩年)的盈利的預(yù)測作用做驗證。國內(nèi)的研究通常以整個資本市場為研究對象,李鋒森(2007)指出可以分行業(yè)對MDA信息披露制度有用性進(jìn)行深入研究,因此本文選取了滬深兩市主板A股中按證監(jiān)會行業(yè)分類中的采掘業(yè)和建筑業(yè)、零售業(yè)3個行業(yè)板塊中的非ST共114家上市公司進(jìn)行研究。 本文采用非指數(shù)法,通過對樣本公司2008年年報中MDA信息進(jìn)行人工閱讀并評分,通過檢驗其MDA信息整體及7個子項目與公司未來一年的和兩年的營業(yè)收入、每股盈余和經(jīng)營現(xiàn)金凈流量的相關(guān)性來對我國上市公司當(dāng)前年報中MDA的有用性進(jìn)行實證分析。 本文共分為六章,各章主要內(nèi)容如下： 第一章：緒論,主要介紹論文的選題背景、意義、研究方向和論文框架。 第二章：我國MDA信息披露制度演進(jìn),主要介紹自我國2002年引入MDA信息披露制度以來,我國證監(jiān)會在年報披露準(zhǔn)則中對MDA信息披露所做的相關(guān)規(guī)定及演進(jìn)。從中可以看到我國年報中的MDA信息、披露制度隨著我國資本市場的發(fā)展和外部信息使用者的需求的發(fā)展而不斷細(xì)化和明確,并不斷增加對公司經(jīng)營情況及未來發(fā)展展望的實質(zhì)性條款的披露規(guī)定。其準(zhǔn)則不斷演進(jìn)的根本原因是使MDA披露的信息更加能夠滿足外部信息使用者的需求,使得外部投資者能夠通過MDA披露的信息更加深入的了解公司的經(jīng)營情況,掌握其未來發(fā)展的方向,以此做出相應(yīng)的投資決策。 第三章：理論基礎(chǔ)及文獻(xiàn)綜述,主要介紹本文的理論基礎(chǔ)及國內(nèi)外在MDA有用性方面的主要文獻(xiàn)。從中可以看出,國外學(xué)者從各個方面對MDA信息的整體有用性及各子項目的有用性進(jìn)行了較為全面的實證研究,其從資本市場中獲得了大量對MDA有用性有力的說明；國內(nèi)在MDA有用性的實證研究極少,僅有的寥寥幾篇文獻(xiàn)使用的基本都是2004年的數(shù)據(jù),對當(dāng)前我國上市公司年報中的MDA有用性的研究幾乎還是空白。 第四章：研究設(shè)計,主要說明變量、樣本選取及主要研究假設(shè)、模型構(gòu)建等等；結(jié)合國內(nèi)外MDA信息有用性方面研究文獻(xiàn)的優(yōu)勢和不足,本文選擇MDA中的產(chǎn)品價格變化、營業(yè)收入變化、毛利率變化、投資進(jìn)度與收益、外部環(huán)境(主要是公司面臨的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境及市場競爭)、發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略(主要是擬投資項目、擬推出的新產(chǎn)品等)和新年度的盈利目標(biāo)7個披露子項目作為自變量,選擇公司未來的營業(yè)收入變化率、每股盈余變化率和經(jīng)營現(xiàn)金凈流量變化量作為因變量,并設(shè)置了相應(yīng)的控制變量,進(jìn)而建立了相應(yīng)的多元線性回歸模型。本文自變量的數(shù)據(jù)來源于對樣本公司2008年年報中MDA信息的人工閱讀并評分。 第五章：實證分析,首先對模型設(shè)計到的變量進(jìn)行了描述性統(tǒng)計,樣本公司MDA信息披露頻次統(tǒng)計結(jié)果顯示,采掘業(yè)公司的整體披露水平最高,零售業(yè)最差。但與之前的研究文獻(xiàn)相比其整體披露水平已顯著提高。從各子項目及披露性質(zhì)來看,管理層往往愿意披露容易披露的信息,且傾向于披露利好的信息,利差信息往往一筆帶過,前瞻性信息的披露情況有明顯好轉(zhuǎn)。但上市公司往往只披露證監(jiān)會強(qiáng)制性披露的條款,對于證監(jiān)會鼓勵披露的條款披露極少,其主動披露的意愿較差。此后運(yùn)用模型進(jìn)行回歸。 第六章：結(jié)論與啟示,本文的實證結(jié)果表明,樣本公司年報MDA中披露的信息整體與公司短期(1年)的營業(yè)收入、每股盈余和經(jīng)營現(xiàn)金凈流量均具有顯著的相關(guān)性,與其長期(2年)盈利情況關(guān)聯(lián)性很弱。從其7個子項目來看：管理層對公司營業(yè)收入的變化、投資進(jìn)度與收益、行業(yè)發(fā)展趨勢及面臨的市場競爭格局(外部環(huán)境)、發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略的分析和討論以及對未來一年的盈利目標(biāo)對公司未來一年的營業(yè)收入的預(yù)測性最強(qiáng),管理層對公司當(dāng)年營業(yè)收入變化、營業(yè)利潤率變化、投資進(jìn)度與收益、行業(yè)的發(fā)展趨勢及公司面臨的市場競爭的分析和討論對公司未來一年的每股盈余的預(yù)測性很強(qiáng),管理層對公司投資進(jìn)度與收益、營業(yè)收入變化和發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略的披露對于預(yù)測公司未來一年的經(jīng)營現(xiàn)金凈流量具有顯著的輔助作用。 分行業(yè)的回歸結(jié)果表明,我國不同行業(yè)上市公司MDA的披露質(zhì)量及信息、的有用性均存在差異。零售業(yè)上市公司管理層對營業(yè)收入變化、投資進(jìn)度與收益的討論與分析對于預(yù)測其未來營業(yè)收入和每股盈余均具有顯著的作用,其對行業(yè)趨勢和面臨的競爭格局、發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略的討論和分析對預(yù)測其未來營業(yè)收入作用顯著,其對營業(yè)利潤率的變化的討論和分析對于預(yù)測其每股盈余具有顯著的輔助作用；建筑業(yè)上市公司管理層討論與分析整體上對預(yù)測公司未來營業(yè)收入和未來一年經(jīng)營現(xiàn)金凈流量顯著相關(guān)；采掘業(yè)上市公司管理層對營業(yè)利潤率變化、營業(yè)收入變化的討論和分析對預(yù)測其未來每股盈余有顯著作用,其對未來發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略的討論和分析對預(yù)測公司未來現(xiàn)金凈流量有顯著的輔助作用。 本文的實證結(jié)果有力的證明了我國上市公司年報中披露的MDA信息與其未來盈利情況的相關(guān)性,進(jìn)而以實證數(shù)據(jù)說明了MDA的信息有用性和存在的必要性。其結(jié)果還表明,我國上市公司MDA信息中的不同子項目其作用有著差異,不同行業(yè)的上市公司其MDA信息、披露質(zhì)量及有用性均存在差異。根據(jù)研究結(jié)果,本文對年報披露準(zhǔn)則中的MDA信息披露規(guī)定提出了相關(guān)的建議。 本文在引入MDA信息披露制度恰好10個年頭以及進(jìn)一步修訂之際,對采掘業(yè)、建筑業(yè)和零售業(yè)3個行業(yè)板塊上市公司2008-2010年報中MDA信息的有用性進(jìn)行研究,以此確定我國現(xiàn)行MDA信息披露制度的指引下MDA披露的信息是否對投資者決策提供了有用信息、MDA信息的有用性是否與行業(yè)有關(guān)、當(dāng)前的制度是否存在不足等問題,以此為我國更好的改進(jìn)上市公司信息披露制度提出一些意見和建議。本文的主要貢獻(xiàn)在于對現(xiàn)行MDA信息披露制度下(2008年)的MDA信息有用性進(jìn)行了分項目實證研究,同時還對不同行業(yè)(采掘業(yè)、建筑業(yè)和零售業(yè))的MDA信息、有用性進(jìn)行了對比研究。國內(nèi)對我國上市公司MDA信息有用性的實證研究較少,并且其研究結(jié)果均表明我國上市公司MDA信息、中的前瞻性信息、與公司未來業(yè)績沒有相關(guān)性；但本文的實證結(jié)果表明,MDA信息中的前瞻性信息(對公司面臨的宏觀政策及競爭局面、發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略和未來盈利目標(biāo))與公司未來經(jīng)營業(yè)績有著顯著的相關(guān)性；因此本文實際上用實證的數(shù)據(jù)對MDA信息中的前瞻性信息的有用性進(jìn)行了有力的驗證,對其存在的必要性及未來制度的制定均具有一定的現(xiàn)實意義。 但同時,由于時間和精力的局限,本文選取的樣本較少,也僅從MDA信息與公司未來盈利指標(biāo)之間的相關(guān)性這一個方面對其有用性進(jìn)行了研究；同時在對MDA子項目人工閱讀并評分的過程中忽略掉了不同程度利好和利差信息的不同影響。
[Abstract]:Improving the information of listed companies and disclosing quality has always been one of the key work of building effective capital market in China. With the continuous development and perfection of China's capital market and the complexity of the operating environment, the operating business of the listed companies is becoming more complex. The financial information contained in the financial reports provided by the listed companies is not full. The information needs of the users of the foot external information, the non financial information that plays an auxiliary and explanatory role in the financial statements, has been paid more and more attention. Since 2002, China introduced the Management DiscussionAnalysis (MDA) disclosure system. Since then, the SFC is mainly in the disclosure of the information of the company, the disclosure of the content and the format of the format. From 2002 to 2005, the China Securities Regulatory Commission has revised the annual reporting guidelines from 2002 to 2005, all of which involve the relevant provisions of MDA information disclosure. In the revision of the annual report standards of 2005, the CSRC's requirements for the disclosure of MDA information are required. It has been refined, and the 2007 annual report disclosure standards have been revised again after the revision of the 2007 year's.2011 year. The SFC published the revised draft of the annual report disclosure guidelines, in which the MDA disclosure system was revised accordingly.
The introduction of MDA information disclosure system in China has just been 10 years ago. Whether the narrative information contained in the theoretical and practical circles is less than that of the.MDA, is the original intention of the regulatory layer when the system is introduced, as well as the effective information that investors have provided for it? What is the most important function of the information in the quantity information? These questions need an empirical study to answer. Most of the domestic research on MDA information disclosure is in the theoretical level, such as the summary and description of its disclosure status, the comparison of the MDA information disclosure system at home and abroad, and the empirical research literature on its usefulness in China. The only few papers are most of the annual reports and information introduced at the beginning of the use of the system. The usefulness of MDA information and the factors affecting the degree of information are analyzed in general, and the domestic literature is basically all selected by the annual report information of a single year, so that the results have a certain chance.
In view of the current status of the empirical research on the usefulness of MDA information disclosure system in China, considering the revision of the annual report disclosure standards of the CSRC, this paper is based on the annual report information of the 2008-2010 year. The CSRC revised the annual report standards in 2007 until December 2011. 010 years' annual reports of listed companies are based on the same disclosure criteria, based on the information in the 2008 annual report MDA, which can simultaneously verify the predictive role of information in the MDA on the company's short-term (one year) and long-term (two years) earnings. The domestic research usually takes the whole capital market as the research object, and Li Fengsen (2007) points out that it can be divided. The industry has made an in-depth study on the usefulness of MDA information disclosure system, so this paper has selected 114 listed companies of non ST in the A shares of the two Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets according to the industry and construction industry in the SFC industry, and the 3 sectors of the retail industry.
By using the non exponential method, through the manual reading and grading of the MDA information in the 2008 annual report of the Sample Firms, the paper examines the relevance of the MDA information as a whole and 7 sub items to the company's business income in the next year and two years, the earnings per share and the net cash flow of operating cash, to the usefulness of the MDA in the current annual reports of China's listed companies. Empirical analysis.
This article is divided into six chapters, and the main contents of each chapter are as follows:
Chapter 1: introduction, mainly introducing the background, significance, research direction and framework of the thesis.
The second chapter is the evolution of the MDA information disclosure system in China. It mainly introduces the relevant regulations and evolution of the information disclosure of MDA in the annual report disclosure standards of our country since the introduction of the MDA information disclosure system in 2002. From this, we can see the MDA information in the annual report of our country. The disclosure system is with the development of China's capital market and the external letter. The development of the user's needs is constantly refined and clear, and the disclosure rules of the substantive terms of the company's operation and future development are constantly increased. The fundamental reason for the evolution of the standards is to make the information disclosed by the MDA more able to meet the needs of the users of the external information, so that the external investors can be disclosed through the disclosure of the MDA. The information is more in-depth understanding of the company's operation and grasp the direction of its future development, so as to make corresponding investment decisions.
The third chapter, the theoretical basis and literature review, mainly introduces the theoretical basis of this paper and the main literature on the MDA usefulness at home and abroad. It can be seen from it that foreign scholars have carried out a more comprehensive empirical study on the overall usefulness of MDA information and the usefulness of each sub project from various aspects, which have obtained a large amount of the capital market. A powerful explanation of the usefulness of MDA; few empirical studies on the usefulness of MDA in China. Only a few of the few articles used in the literature are basically the data of 2004. The study of MDA usefulness in the current annual reports of China's listed companies is almost still blank.
The fourth chapter: research and design, mainly explain the variables, sample selection and main research hypothesis, model construction, and so on. Combining the advantages and disadvantages of MDA information availability both at home and abroad, this paper chooses the price change, the change of business income, the change of gross interest rate, the progress and income of the investment, the external environment (mainly the company face). The macro economic environment and market competition), the development strategy (mainly the proposed investment projects, the new products to be introduced, etc.) and the 7 disclosure sub items of the new year's profit target as independent variables, choose the company's future turnover rate, the rate of earnings change and the change of net cash flow as the dependent variable, and set up the corresponding variables. The corresponding multivariate linear regression model is established. The data of this paper is derived from the manual reading of the MDA information in the 2008 annual report of the Sample Firms and graded.
The fifth chapter: empirical analysis, first of all, the descriptive statistics of the variables designed by the model, the Sample Firms MDA information disclosure frequency statistics show that the overall disclosure level of the mining companies is the highest and the retail industry is the worst. But compared with the previous research literature, the overall disclosure of water level has been significantly improved. The managers tend to disclose the information that is easy to disclose, and tend to disclose good information. The difference information is often carried out, and the disclosure of forward-looking information is obviously better. However, the listed companies often disclose only the terms of the mandatory disclosure of the SFC, and the disclosure of the terms of the CSRC is rarely disclosed. Poor wish. Then use the model to return.
The sixth chapter: conclusion and inspiration, the empirical results show that the information disclosed in the Sample Firms annual report MDA has a significant correlation with the company's short-term (1 years) operating income, earnings per share and the net operating cash flow, and is very weak with its long-term (2 year) profit. From its 7 sub projects, the management level is to the company camp. The change in income, the progress and income of the investment, the trend of industry development and the market competition pattern (external environment), the analysis and discussion of the development strategy and the strongest forecast for the company's revenue in the coming year for the next year, the change of business income, the change of operating profit rate, the investment into the company. The degree and income, the industry development trend and the analysis and discussion of the market competition faced by the company are strong predictability for the company's earnings per share in the coming year. The management level of the company's investment progress and income, the change of business income and the disclosure of the development strategy have a significant auxiliary work on the net operating cash flow of the Forecast Ltd in the coming year. Use.
The regression results of the sub industry show that there are differences in the quality and the usefulness of the disclosure quality and information of the listed companies of different industries in China. The discussion and analysis of the operating income of the listed companies in the retail industry, the discussion and analysis of the progress and income of the MDA have a significant role in predicting the future business income and the earnings per share. The discussion and analysis of the development strategy have a significant effect on the forecast of its future operating income. The discussion and analysis of the changes in the operating profit rate have a significant auxiliary role in predicting the earnings per share. The management layer of the listed companies in the construction industry discusses and analyzes the future business income and future of the Forecast Ltd on the whole. There is a significant correlation between the net operating cash flow rate in one year and the discussion and analysis of the changes in operating profit rate and the change of operating income for the listed companies in the mining industry. The discussion and analysis of the future development strategy have a significant auxiliary effect on the future net cash flow of the Forecast Ltd.
The empirical results of this paper strongly prove the correlation between the MDA information disclosed in the annual reports of China's listed companies and their future earnings, and then demonstrate the information usefulness and necessity of MDA by empirical data. The results also show that the difference in the role of the different sub projects in the MDA information of our listed companies is different and the different industries are in different industries. There are differences in the quality and usefulness of the listed companies' MDA information. According to the results of the study, the paper puts forward relevant suggestions on the MDA information disclosure rules in the annual report disclosure guidelines.
With the introduction of the MDA information disclosure system for 10 years and further revision, this paper studies the usefulness of MDA information in the 2008-2010 annual report of the 3 industry plate listed companies in the mining industry, the construction industry and the retail industry, in order to determine whether the information disclosed by MDA under the guidance of the current MDA information disclosure system in China is made to the investors' decision making. For the useful information, whether the usefulness of the MDA information is related to the industry and whether there is a shortage of current system, some suggestions and suggestions are put forward to improve the information disclosure system of Listed Companies in China. The main contribution of this paper is to divide the MDA information usefulness under the current MDA information disclosure system (2008). A comparative study is made on the MDA information and usefulness of different industries (mining, construction and retail). There are few empirical studies on the availability of MDA information in China's listed companies, and the results of the research show that the MDA information of Listed Companies in China is not related to the future performance of the company. But the empirical results of this paper show that there is a significant correlation between forward-looking information in MDA information (macro policy and competition situation, development strategy and future profit goals for the company) with the future business performance of the company; therefore, this paper actually uses empirical data to carry out the usefulness of forward-looking information in the MDA information. The verification of force has certain practical significance for the necessity of its existence and the formulation of future system.
But at the same time, because of the limitation of time and energy, this paper selects fewer samples, and studies its usefulness only from the correlation between MDA information and the future profit index of the company. At the same time, it neglects the different influence of different degree of profit and difference information in the process of manual reading and scoring of the MDA sub project.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.51;F275;F224

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