發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-05-13 03:05

  本文選題：人民幣國(guó)際化 + 國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)��； 參考：《湖南大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來(lái)，隨著我國(guó)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)快速發(fā)展和綜合國(guó)力的增強(qiáng)，對(duì)外開(kāi)放程度不斷加深，人民幣國(guó)際化進(jìn)程逐步推進(jìn)，人民幣已經(jīng)在部分地區(qū)行使國(guó)際貨幣職能并逐步開(kāi)始邁上國(guó)際貨幣的舞臺(tái)。然而隨著人民幣國(guó)際化進(jìn)程的推進(jìn)，我國(guó)跨境資本流動(dòng)的規(guī)模和頻率越來(lái)越大，，導(dǎo)致我國(guó)央行所實(shí)施的每一項(xiàng)貨幣政策，都有可能對(duì)資本市場(chǎng)產(chǎn)生影響，而這一影響反過(guò)來(lái)又會(huì)抵消我國(guó)貨幣政策的有效性。因此，對(duì)人民幣國(guó)際化進(jìn)程中國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)對(duì)我國(guó)貨幣政策有效性的影響進(jìn)行規(guī)范的理論分析及實(shí)證分析對(duì)于我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的正常發(fā)展及宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的內(nèi)外均衡的維系具有著重要意義。 本文先從人民幣國(guó)際化的發(fā)展歷程入手，分析了人民幣國(guó)際化的三個(gè)時(shí)期及期間匯率制度等政策的變化，進(jìn)而從人民幣作為國(guó)際結(jié)算貨幣、計(jì)價(jià)貨幣、儲(chǔ)備貨幣等貨幣職能角度分析了人民幣國(guó)際化的程度，并在此基礎(chǔ)上分析了人民國(guó)際化過(guò)程中我國(guó)資本流動(dòng)的結(jié)構(gòu)性變化：直接投資FDI占比下降、短期資本比重增加、國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)渠道多樣化。從理論上論證了人民幣國(guó)際化過(guò)程會(huì)引起我國(guó)跨境資本流動(dòng)的變化，即隨著人民幣國(guó)際化進(jìn)程的推進(jìn)，我國(guó)資本項(xiàng)目和金融市場(chǎng)經(jīng)歷著逐步開(kāi)放和完善的過(guò)程，在此期間我國(guó)的資本跨境流動(dòng)的規(guī)模和頻率會(huì)越來(lái)越大、形式會(huì)越來(lái)越多樣。在本文的實(shí)證部分，本文先從定性的角度分析了跨境資本流動(dòng)對(duì)貨幣政策有效性的影響，然后選取了2003年1月到2011年12月之間的每個(gè)月的短期國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)額、匯率、利率、貨幣供應(yīng)量四個(gè)變量進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析從而說(shuō)明資本跨境流動(dòng)與貨幣政策有效性之間的關(guān)聯(lián)性，進(jìn)而證明國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)會(huì)對(duì)我國(guó)貨幣政策的有效性造成影響。最后，本文對(duì)如何有效緩解人民幣國(guó)際化進(jìn)程中資本跨境流動(dòng)對(duì)我國(guó)貨幣政策的不利影響提出了科學(xué)合理的政策建議。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the sustained and rapid development of our national economy and the enhancement of our overall national strength, the degree of opening to the outside world has deepened, and the process of internationalization of the RMB has been gradually advanced. The RMB has been playing the role of international currency in some regions and has gradually begun to rise to the stage of international currency. However, with the advancement of RMB internationalization, the scale and frequency of cross-border capital flows are increasing in China. As a result, every monetary policy implemented by the people's Bank of China is likely to have an impact on the capital market. This effect, in turn, will counteract the effectiveness of our monetary policy. Therefore, The theoretical and empirical analysis of the impact of international capital flow on the effectiveness of monetary policy in the process of RMB internationalization is of great significance to the normal development of China's economy and the maintenance of internal and external equilibrium of the macro economy. This paper begins with the development of RMB internationalization, analyzes the changes of RMB exchange rate policy in three periods and periods of RMB internationalization, and then starts with RMB as an international settlement currency and pricing currency. On the basis of analyzing the degree of RMB internationalization from the perspective of reserve currency and other monetary functions, this paper analyzes the structural changes of China's capital flow in the process of people's internationalization: the proportion of direct investment in FDI decreases, and the proportion of short-term capital increases. Diversification of channels for international capital flows. The paper theoretically demonstrates that the process of RMB internationalization will cause the change of cross-border capital flow in China, that is, with the advancement of RMB internationalization, China's capital account and financial market are gradually opening and improving. During this period, the scale and frequency of cross-border capital flow will be more and more diverse. In the empirical part of this paper, this paper first analyzes the impact of cross-border capital flows on the effectiveness of monetary policy from a qualitative point of view, and then selects the short-term international capital flows volume, exchange rate, interest rate from January 2003 to December 2011. An empirical analysis of the four variables of money supply shows the correlation between cross-border capital flows and the effectiveness of monetary policy, thus proving that international capital flows will have an impact on the effectiveness of monetary policy in China. Finally, this paper puts forward scientific and reasonable policy recommendations on how to effectively mitigate the adverse effects of cross-border capital flows on China's monetary policy in the process of RMB internationalization.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6;F822.0

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