本文選題：人民幣匯率 + 國(guó)別��； 參考：《西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：我國(guó)自加入WTO以來(lái),人民幣是否應(yīng)大幅升值一直是國(guó)際社會(huì)爭(zhēng)議的熱點(diǎn)。國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)認(rèn)為,本幣升值會(huì)使一國(guó)出口商品的相對(duì)價(jià)格上升,進(jìn)口商品的相對(duì)價(jià)格下降,這將削弱出口商品在國(guó)際市場(chǎng)上的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力,導(dǎo)致該國(guó)進(jìn)口增加、出口減少�？梢�(jiàn),在影響貿(mào)易收支的眾多因素中,匯率起著舉足輕重的作用。同時(shí),作為國(guó)際間經(jīng)濟(jì)聯(lián)系的紐帶,匯率在國(guó)際貿(mào)易和國(guó)際金融中起到的價(jià)格轉(zhuǎn)換作用,使其成為調(diào)節(jié)貿(mào)易收支的重要杠桿之一。1994年以來(lái),人民幣就開(kāi)始穩(wěn)步升值。截止2012年初,人民幣名義和實(shí)際有效匯率累計(jì)升值幅度已分別超過(guò)37.4%和59.8%。然而迄今為止,我國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易順差擴(kuò)大的勢(shì)頭仍未得到有效遏制。 隨著我國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易順差規(guī)模的迅猛擴(kuò)大,主要貿(mào)易伙伴國(guó)對(duì)華貿(mào)易赤字不斷增大,貿(mào)易摩擦也日漸嚴(yán)重。美國(guó)失業(yè)率上升,歐元債務(wù)危機(jī)日益加劇,國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)的種種惡化,使得貿(mào)易伙伴國(guó)內(nèi)的貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義抬頭。在國(guó)內(nèi)內(nèi)需拉動(dòng)不足、出口增長(zhǎng)舉步維艱、國(guó)外貿(mào)易保護(hù)勢(shì)力不斷抬頭的多重背景下,我國(guó)與不同貿(mào)易伙伴國(guó)的進(jìn)出口額由于人民幣的持續(xù)升值將會(huì)產(chǎn)生何種變化。人民銀行行長(zhǎng)周小川日前表示將繼續(xù)擴(kuò)大人民幣雙向波動(dòng)范圍、進(jìn)一步深化人民幣匯率制度改革。那么匯率波動(dòng)率的增大能否如同預(yù)期般改善我國(guó)的進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易?08年席卷全球的金融危機(jī)對(duì)我國(guó)的進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易產(chǎn)生了巨大影響,然而對(duì)于不同國(guó)家,此影響并不相同�，F(xiàn)有的研究大多站在總量的角度討論人民幣匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)我國(guó)進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易額的影響,而忽略不同國(guó)別(地區(qū))間的差異。本文在查閱大量文獻(xiàn)的基礎(chǔ)上,另辟蹊徑,擬定從國(guó)別的角度,借助不完全傳遞理論,研究人民幣不同幣種雙邊匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)不同國(guó)別進(jìn)出口額間的數(shù)量關(guān)系。具體而言,提出如下4個(gè)問(wèn)題： (1)人民幣雙邊匯率的水平變動(dòng)對(duì)不同國(guó)別的進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易額的影響作用分析； (2)人民幣雙邊匯率的波動(dòng)不同,對(duì)不同國(guó)別的進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易額的影響力度分析； (3)加入WTO對(duì)中國(guó)與不同國(guó)家的進(jìn)出口的影響分析； (4)2008年美國(guó)次貸危機(jī),對(duì)我國(guó)與不同貿(mào)易伙伴國(guó)進(jìn)出口的影響效應(yīng)分析。 圍繞上述問(wèn)題,本文對(duì)人民幣匯率的變動(dòng)與我國(guó)不同的貿(mào)易伙伴國(guó)(地區(qū))的進(jìn)出口之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)的研究,具體的安排和內(nèi)容如下： 第一章,導(dǎo)論。作為全文的導(dǎo)入和提出問(wèn)題部分,主要對(duì)文章的選題背景,研究意義,研究定義以及研究思路進(jìn)行介紹。 第二章,文獻(xiàn)綜述。本章分為三個(gè)小節(jié)。第一節(jié)是文章的理論綜述部分,分別介紹了彈性分析理論、吸收分析理論和不完全傳遞理論,其中,彈性分析理論又細(xì)分為購(gòu)買(mǎi)力平價(jià)理論、馬歇爾-勒納條件和J曲線(xiàn)效應(yīng)。第二節(jié)對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外有關(guān)匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)進(jìn)出口影響的研究進(jìn)行了回顧,包括J曲線(xiàn)效應(yīng)和馬歇爾-勒納條件是否成立及匯率的不完全傳遞性上。第三節(jié)對(duì)現(xiàn)有文獻(xiàn)行了述評(píng)。在J曲線(xiàn)效應(yīng)和馬歇爾-勒納條件是否成立這一問(wèn)題的研究上由于樣本選擇不同,計(jì)量方法選用的不同,結(jié)論差別較大。但是學(xué)者們?cè)趯?duì)匯率不完全傳遞的研究中發(fā)現(xiàn),匯率在傳遞過(guò)程中基本是不完全的。 第三章,不同貿(mào)易伙伴國(guó)之間的貿(mào)易特征。如果說(shuō)第二章提出了匯率與進(jìn)出口的關(guān)系需要分國(guó)別研究的話(huà),那么這一章的目的就是要回答我國(guó)與不同貿(mào)易伙伴國(guó)(地區(qū))之間究竟存在哪些差異。本章選取了我國(guó)前六大貿(mào)易伙伴國(guó),分別就不同貿(mào)易國(guó)的進(jìn)出口額、貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)和貿(mào)易額的增長(zhǎng)速度等進(jìn)行了對(duì)比分析。結(jié)果表明：經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平、政治、歷史文化等諸多因素,使得我國(guó)與不同國(guó)家間的對(duì)外貿(mào)易確實(shí)存在著巨大的差異。 第四章,實(shí)證部分。第一節(jié)進(jìn)行了模型的設(shè)定,最終選用了畢克戴克—羅賓遜—梅茨勒模型。第二節(jié)為數(shù)據(jù)的處理,選取的國(guó)家和地區(qū)具體為：巴西、印度、日本、韓國(guó)、馬來(lái)西亞、俄羅斯、新加坡、美國(guó)和歐盟。這九個(gè)國(guó)家(地區(qū))不僅有發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家還有發(fā)展中國(guó)家,除了美國(guó)、日本傳統(tǒng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)強(qiáng)國(guó)外,還有新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體的代表巴西、印度、俄羅斯等金磚四國(guó),可以說(shuō)樣本的選取具有一定程度的代表性�？紤]到匯率的波動(dòng)率可能會(huì)對(duì)我國(guó)的進(jìn)出口產(chǎn)生影響,第三節(jié)給出了人民幣雙邊匯率波動(dòng)率的測(cè)算過(guò)程；第四節(jié)為模型的檢驗(yàn)部分,檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果表明：除波動(dòng)率外,所有變量均為一階單整,且變量間存在協(xié)整關(guān)系。第五節(jié)給出了模型的估計(jì)結(jié)果,并就有關(guān)結(jié)果給出了相關(guān)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)解釋。 第五章,結(jié)論部分。通過(guò)理論和實(shí)證研究,本文得出了結(jié)論主要是： 1)人民幣匯率的水平變動(dòng)會(huì)對(duì)我國(guó)的進(jìn)出口額產(chǎn)生影響。其中,對(duì)出口的影響較為顯著,并且不同國(guó)別間的彈性系數(shù)相同；而匯率的水平變動(dòng)對(duì)不同國(guó)家的進(jìn)口則存在著一定的差異； 2)匯率波動(dòng)率對(duì)我國(guó)進(jìn)口的影響不明顯,但出口模型中,匯率波動(dòng)率的系數(shù)較為顯著,且為負(fù)值。這意味著匯率波動(dòng)率的增大會(huì)減少我國(guó)的出口,這種現(xiàn)象可以用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏好理論解釋?zhuān)杭磳?duì)外貿(mào)易中,廠(chǎng)商是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)厭惡的,由于在貨幣支付前需要簽訂貿(mào)易合同,當(dāng)匯率波動(dòng)率增加時(shí),對(duì)匯率的預(yù)測(cè)將更加困難,從而在一定程度上增加了交易成本,導(dǎo)致了交易者的出口減少； 3)加入WTO促進(jìn)了我國(guó)的進(jìn)出口,并且出口的增長(zhǎng)幅度大于進(jìn)口；但韓國(guó)、日本兩國(guó)的彈性系數(shù)較印度、巴西等要小的多,這可能是因?yàn)槲覈?guó)同日韓兩國(guó)的貿(mào)易優(yōu)惠已經(jīng)較為普遍,即便加入WTO對(duì)于雙方進(jìn)出口間的促進(jìn)作用也極其有限； 4)次貸危機(jī)對(duì)我國(guó)與不同國(guó)別進(jìn)出口的效應(yīng)大都為負(fù),并且出口模型中,對(duì)歐盟的影響最大,而對(duì)馬來(lái)西亞、印度影響較小,且系數(shù)均不顯著,這可能是因?yàn)樯鲜鰢?guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)較為落后,與世界的經(jīng)濟(jì)往來(lái)不密切相關(guān)。 本文的創(chuàng)新之處為：現(xiàn)有文獻(xiàn)大多是站在總量的角度構(gòu)建匯率和貿(mào)易之間的模型,而較少分國(guó)別(地區(qū))討論；我國(guó)對(duì)不同國(guó)家(地區(qū)),特別是發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家和發(fā)展中國(guó)家的進(jìn)出口結(jié)構(gòu)差異較大,人民幣匯率變動(dòng)時(shí),不同國(guó)家(地區(qū))的進(jìn)出口會(huì)受到不同的影響�，F(xiàn)有站在總量角度的分析忽略了國(guó)別間的差異,而分國(guó)別建模就使得匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)不同國(guó)家進(jìn)出口額的影響得以量化,研究的針對(duì)性更強(qiáng),結(jié)論更易令人信服。匯改后,匯率的波動(dòng)性顯著加強(qiáng)。因此本文在建模時(shí)還加入了匯率波動(dòng)率這一變量。除此之外,本文還考慮了外生因素,加入了WTO和次貸金融危機(jī)兩個(gè)變量。
[Abstract]:Since China's accession to the WTO, it has been a hot issue in the international community to see whether the RMB should be appreciating greatly. International economics believes that the appreciation of the local currency will increase the relative price of the export commodities of a country and the relative price of the imported goods, which will weaken the competitiveness of the export commodities in the international market, and lead to the increase of the country's imports and the decrease of its exports. It is obvious that exchange rate plays an important role in many factors affecting trade balance. At the same time, as the link of international economic ties, exchange rate plays the role of price conversion in international trade and international finance, making it an important lever to adjust the trade balance. Since.1994 years, the RMB has begun to appreciate steadily. Up to 2012. At the beginning of the year, the cumulative appreciation of the nominal and real effective exchange rates of the RMB has exceeded 37.4% and 59.8%., respectively, but so far, the expansion of China's foreign trade surplus has not been effectively curbed.
With the rapid expansion of the scale of China's foreign trade surplus, the trade deficit of the major trading partners is increasing and the trade frictions are getting worse. The unemployment rate in the United States is rising, the debt crisis of the euro is increasing, the international economic situation is deteriorating, and the trade protectionism of the trade partners is rising. Under the multiple background of the rise of foreign trade protection forces, what changes will be produced by China and different trade partner countries due to the continuous appreciation of the RMB? Zhou Xiaochuan, President of the people's Bank, will continue to expand the two-way fluctuation range of the RMB and further deepen the RMB exchange rate system. Reform. Then, can the increase of exchange rate fluctuate as expected to improve China's import and export trade? The financial crisis that swept the globe in 08 years has a great impact on China's import and export trade. However, this effect is not the same for different countries. On the basis of consulting a large number of documents, this paper, on the basis of consulting a large number of documents, draws up a new way to draw up a new way to study the quantitative relationship between the import and export volume of different countries in different currencies from the perspective of country and the theory of incomplete transfer. In particular, the following 4 questions are put forward. :
(1) the influence of the horizontal exchange rate of RMB on the import and export volume of different countries;
(2) the influence of the fluctuation of RMB bilateral exchange rate on the import and export volume of different countries;
(3) the impact of China's accession to the WTO on China's imports and exports with different countries;
(4) the impact of the US subprime crisis in 2008 on the import and export of China and different trading partners.
Around the above problems, this paper systematically studies the relationship between the change of RMB exchange rate and the import and export of different trade partner countries (regions) in China. The specific arrangements and contents are as follows:
The first chapter is introduction. As the introduction and question part of the full text, it mainly introduces the background, significance, definition and research ideas of the article.
The second chapter is a literature review. This chapter is divided into three sections. The first section is the theoretical summary of the article. It introduces elastic analysis theory, absorption analysis theory and incomplete transfer theory, in which elastic analysis theory is subdivided into purchasing power parity theory, Marshall Lerner piece and J curve effect. The second section is related to exchange rate change at home and abroad. The research on the influence of dynamic on import and export is reviewed, including whether the J curve effect and Marshall Lerner condition are established and the exchange rate is incomplete transfer. The third section reviews the existing literature. In the study of whether the J curve effect and the Marshall Lena condition are established, the selection of the sample is different and the measurement method is not selected. The conclusion is that the exchange rate is not complete in the transmission process.
The third chapter, the trade characteristics between different trade partners. If the second chapter puts forward the relationship between exchange rate and import and export, the purpose of this chapter is to answer the differences between China and the different trading partners (regions). This chapter selected the top six trade partners of our country, respectively. The import and export volume of different trading countries, the trade structure and the growth rate of trade volume have been compared and analyzed. The results show that the economic development level, politics, historical culture and many other factors make the foreign trade between China and different countries really have huge differences.
The fourth chapter, empirical part. The first section set up the model, finally selected the bike Deckard Robinson Metzler model. The second section is the data processing, the selected countries and regions are the Brazil, India, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Russia, the new slope, the United States and the European Union. These nine countries (regions) not only have developed countries. In addition to the developing countries, in addition to the United States, the Japanese traditional economy is strong, and the emerging economies represent Brazil, India, Russia and other BRIC countries, it can be said that the selection of the samples has a certain degree of representativeness. Considering the exchange rate volatility may have an impact on the import and export of our country, the third section gives the RMB bilateral exchange. The calculation process of rate volatility; the fourth section is the test part of the model. The test results show that all variables are one order single whole except the volatility, and there is a cointegration relationship between the variables. The fifth section gives the estimated results of the model, and gives the relevant economic explanation for the related results.
The fifth chapter is the conclusion. Through theoretical and empirical research, the paper concludes that:
1) the change of the exchange rate of RMB will affect the import and export volume of our country. Among them, the influence on the export is more significant and the elastic coefficient is the same in different countries; and the change of the exchange rate has certain differences on the import of different countries.
2) the influence of exchange rate volatility on China's import is not obvious, but in the export model, the coefficient of exchange rate volatility is more significant and negative. This means that the increase of exchange rate volatility will reduce our country's export. This phenomenon can be explained by the risk preference theory: in foreign trade, the manufacturer is a risk aversion, due to the payment before the payment of money. It is necessary to sign a trade contract. When the rate of exchange rate increases, it will be more difficult to predict the exchange rate, thus increasing the transaction cost to a certain extent, resulting in the reduction of traders' exports.
3) joining WTO promotes China's import and export, and the increase of export is greater than that of import, but the elasticity coefficient of Korea and Japan is much smaller than that of India and Brazil. This may be because the trade preferences of China and Japan and South Korea are more common, even if WTO has a very limited role in promoting the import and export of both sides.
4) the subprime mortgage crisis has most negative effects on the import and export of China and different countries, and the export model has the greatest impact on the European Union, while the impact on Malaysia, India is small and the coefficient is not significant. This may be because the economies of the above countries are relatively backward and not closely related to the economic exchanges in the world.
The innovation of this paper is that most of the existing literature is to build a model between exchange rate and trade from the point of view of the total amount, but less on the discussion of the country (region); the import and export structure of different countries (regions), especially the developed countries and the developing countries is different, the exchange rate of RMB exchange rate, the import and export of different countries (regions) The analysis of the current station in the total point of view neglects the difference between countries, and the modeling of the country can make the exchange rate change to quantify the influence of the import and export of different countries, the research is more pertinent and the conclusion is more convincing. After the remittance, the wave mobility of the exchange rate is greatly strengthened. Therefore, this paper also joins the model in the modeling. In addition to the exchange rate volatility, this article also takes account of exogenous factors, and adds two variables, WTO and subprime mortgage financial crisis.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F224;F832.6;F752.6

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相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前2條

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2 周惠;人民幣匯率變化對(duì)我國(guó)貿(mào)易收支的影響[D];華中科技大學(xué);2009年

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