本文選題：人民幣實(shí)際匯率 + 中國(guó)-東盟�。� 參考：《廣西大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：《東盟憲章》的簽署及CAFTA的成立有利于中國(guó)與東盟成員國(guó)友好關(guān)系和經(jīng)貿(mào)往來(lái)的發(fā)展,中國(guó)與東盟各成員國(guó)之間經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易日趨活躍就是證明。東盟已成為我國(guó)的第四大貿(mào)易伙伴。在當(dāng)前全球經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化趨勢(shì)日益明顯的大背景下,中國(guó)-東盟區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化已經(jīng)成為熱點(diǎn)問(wèn)題,尤其對(duì)中國(guó)-東盟貿(mào)易一體化的發(fā)展,更是學(xué)術(shù)界以及政府部門(mén)所探討的焦點(diǎn)。而區(qū)域內(nèi)匯率的變動(dòng)影響著區(qū)域間各成員國(guó)之間的貿(mào)易依賴(lài)程度,進(jìn)而影響區(qū)域貿(mào)易一體化的發(fā)展。08年金融危機(jī)以來(lái),為了避免美元幣值波動(dòng)帶來(lái)的不利影響,東盟國(guó)家在與我國(guó)的雙邊貿(mào)易中更多選擇人民幣進(jìn)行結(jié)算。因而,研究人民幣匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)中國(guó)-東盟未來(lái)貿(mào)易發(fā)展將有利于推動(dòng)區(qū)域貿(mào)易一體化的進(jìn)程,進(jìn)而促進(jìn)中國(guó)-東盟區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化的發(fā)展,同時(shí)也將為人民幣區(qū)域化乃至國(guó)際化進(jìn)程安裝新的“加速器”。 為此,基于理論支撐,本文將在企業(yè)最優(yōu)出口定價(jià)模型和行業(yè)出口定價(jià)模型構(gòu)建的基礎(chǔ)上搭建匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)中國(guó)-東盟貿(mào)易效應(yīng)的理論模型。在此基礎(chǔ)上,通過(guò)實(shí)證分析進(jìn)一步探測(cè)人民幣實(shí)際匯率橫向水平變動(dòng)及縱向劇烈波動(dòng)’分別對(duì)中國(guó)-東盟貿(mào)易的影響。其結(jié)果顯示,除了印尼和緬甸,人民幣實(shí)際匯率橫向水平變動(dòng)對(duì)中國(guó)-東盟貿(mào)易的影響符合“J曲線效應(yīng)”；除印尼、老撾、菲律賓外,人民幣實(shí)際匯率的縱向波動(dòng)在短期內(nèi)有利于改善中國(guó)與其余東盟七國(guó)的對(duì)外貿(mào)易收支,在長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)影響甚微。基于此,結(jié)合中國(guó)-東盟貿(mào)易的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,提出人民幣實(shí)際匯率變動(dòng)條件下中國(guó)-東盟未來(lái)貿(mào)易發(fā)展的策略選擇。
[Abstract]:The signing of the ASEAN Charter and the establishment of the CAFTA are conducive to the development of friendly relations and economic and trade exchanges between China and ASEAN member countries, as evidenced by the growing economic and trade activities between China and ASEAN member countries. ASEAN has become China's fourth largest trading partner. Under the background of the current trend of global economic integration, China-ASEAN regional economic integration has become a hot issue, especially for the development of China-ASEAN trade integration. It is also the focus of academic and government research. However, changes in intraregional exchange rates affect the degree of trade dependence among member States of the region, thereby affecting the development of regional trade integration. Since the 2008 financial crisis, in order to avoid the adverse effects of fluctuations in the value of the United States dollar, ASEAN countries in bilateral trade with China more choice of RMB settlement. Therefore, the study of RMB exchange rate change will be beneficial to the future development of China-ASEAN trade, which will help to promote the process of regional trade integration, and then promote the development of China-ASEAN regional economic integration. It will also install a new accelerator for the regionalization and even internationalization of the renminbi. Therefore, based on the theoretical support, this paper will build the theoretical model of the effect of exchange rate change on China-ASEAN trade on the basis of the optimal export pricing model and the industry export pricing model. On the basis of this, the influence of lateral and vertical fluctuation of RMB real exchange rate on China-ASEAN trade is further explored by empirical analysis. The results show that, except for Indonesia and Myanmar, the lateral effect of RMB real exchange rate changes on China-ASEAN trade conforms to the "J curve effect"; except Indonesia, Laos and the Philippines, The vertical fluctuation of the real exchange rate of RMB is beneficial to improve the foreign trade balance between China and the other seven ASEAN countries in the short term, and has little effect in the long run. Based on this, combined with the current situation of China-ASEAN trade development, this paper puts forward the strategic choice of the future trade development of China-ASEAN under the condition of RMB real exchange rate fluctuation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：廣西大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F832.6;F752.7

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