中國(guó)股市財(cái)富效應(yīng)的研究
本文選題:股市財(cái)富 + 效應(yīng)消費(fèi); 參考:《華僑大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文
【摘要】:股份制改革之后,我國(guó)股市表現(xiàn)紅火,而隨后經(jīng)歷暴跌之后,一直在緩慢下跌,前期的財(cái)富增長(zhǎng)是否對(duì)消費(fèi)支出產(chǎn)生顯著影響,金融財(cái)富的上升是否會(huì)促進(jìn)內(nèi)需?我國(guó)股市財(cái)富效應(yīng)的問題應(yīng)運(yùn)而生。股票市場(chǎng)的財(cái)富效應(yīng)可表示為由股價(jià)的波動(dòng),導(dǎo)致股票持有人財(cái)富的波動(dòng),,進(jìn)而刺激或抑制消費(fèi)的結(jié)果,并影響短期邊際消費(fèi)傾向,促進(jìn)或減緩經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的效應(yīng)。 本文采用規(guī)范研究和實(shí)證研究相結(jié)合的方法,首先從經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)、行為金融學(xué)角度闡述了股市財(cái)富效應(yīng)的理論依據(jù),在這個(gè)基礎(chǔ)上分析股市財(cái)富效應(yīng)的基本特征;其次,利用最新數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)我國(guó)股市直接與間接財(cái)富效應(yīng)分別進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析,采用協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)和脈沖函數(shù)等方法分析了我國(guó)股市整體財(cái)富效應(yīng)、正財(cái)富效應(yīng)、負(fù)財(cái)富效應(yīng)和間接財(cái)富效應(yīng);最后,運(yùn)用了圖表說(shuō)明了股市財(cái)富效應(yīng)的制約因素并提出加強(qiáng)我國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)財(cái)富效應(yīng)的政策建議。 通過(guò)本文研究得到幾個(gè)結(jié)論: (1)我國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)不存在整體財(cái)富效應(yīng),替代效應(yīng)明顯,目前我國(guó)決定居民消費(fèi)支出的主要因素依然是居民可支配收入; (2)我國(guó)股市存在微弱的正財(cái)富效應(yīng),股份制改革后的正財(cái)富效應(yīng)大于股改前的財(cái)富效應(yīng); (3)無(wú)論是股改之前還是股改之后,我國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)均不存在負(fù)財(cái)富效應(yīng); (4)股票財(cái)富變化對(duì)消費(fèi)者信心有影響,但程度較小,我國(guó)股市存在微弱間接效應(yīng)。
[Abstract]:After the share-holding system reform, the stock market of our country is booming, and then after experiencing the collapse, it has been falling slowly all the time. Is the growth of wealth in the early period having a significant impact on consumer spending, and will the rise of financial wealth promote domestic demand? The problem of wealth effect in Chinese stock market arises at the historic moment. The wealth effect of the stock market can be expressed as the fluctuation of the stock price, which leads to the fluctuation of the wealth of the stock holder, which in turn stimulates or suppresses the result of consumption, and affects the short-term marginal propensity to consume and the effect of promoting or slowing down the economic growth. By combining normative and empirical studies, this paper first expounds the theoretical basis of the stock market wealth effect from the angle of economics and behavioral finance, and then analyzes the basic characteristics of the stock market wealth effect. Using the latest data, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the direct and indirect wealth effects in China's stock market, and analyzes the overall wealth effect and the positive wealth effect of the stock market in China by the methods of cointegration test, Granger causality test and impulse function. Finally, the paper explains the restricting factors of the wealth effect of stock market and puts forward some policy suggestions to strengthen the wealth effect in China's stock market. Through the research of this paper, several conclusions are obtained: 1) there is no overall wealth effect in China's stock market, and the substitution effect is obvious. At present, the main factor that determines the residents' consumption expenditure is the resident's disposable income; (2) there is a weak positive wealth effect in China's stock market, and the positive wealth effect after the stock system reform is greater than the wealth effect before the stock reform; 3) there is no negative wealth effect in China's stock market either before or after the stock reform; 4) the change of stock wealth has influence on consumer confidence, but to a lesser extent, there is a weak indirect effect in China's stock market.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:華僑大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2012
【分類號(hào)】:F832.51
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