非傳統貨幣政策對宏觀經濟影響的實證研究
發(fā)布時間:2018-04-15 14:09
本文選題:非傳統貨幣政策 + 中央銀行; 參考:《上海理工大學》2012年碩士論文
【摘要】:2008年9月雷曼兄弟倒閉,發(fā)端于美國的金融危機迅速席卷全球,世界經濟至今還沒有徹底走出危機的陰霾,政府宏觀經濟調節(jié)工具之一——貨幣政策,其有效性再次受到質疑。各國中央銀行紛紛采取行動應對危機,隨著金融危機影響加深,世界各主要中央銀行除了采取以降低短期利率為主的傳統貨幣政策外,還積極采取以擴張中央銀行資產負債表為代表的非傳統貨幣政策。 本文主要從非傳統貨幣政策的理論框架、政策實踐、政策效果及影響的實證檢驗等方面進行系統分析。第一章緒論介紹論文的選題依據和研究目的、國內外文獻綜述及相關概念界定、現有研究中存在的問題、研究內容與方法及研究框架。第二章對非傳統貨幣政策進行了理論分析,首先介紹了貨幣政策的相關理論,然后從非傳統貨幣政策傳導機制及特征等方面進行分析,依次從中央銀行資產負債表角度、中央銀行交易對象角度、非傳統貨幣政策行為角度分析非傳統貨幣政策對宏觀經濟的影響。第三章選取美聯儲、歐洲央行及中國人民銀行為對象,進行非傳統貨幣政策對宏觀經濟影響的對比分析。第四章是非傳統貨幣政策對宏觀經濟影響的實證分析,首先介紹研究樣本和數據來源,其次引入非傳統貨幣政策對宏觀經濟影響的模型,最后以美國及中國相關宏觀經濟數據為基礎進行實證分析。第五章是非傳統貨幣政策對宏觀經濟影響的對策與建議。 本文對非傳統貨幣政策進行分析,并且利用美國的宏觀經濟數據實證檢驗了美聯儲的非傳統貨幣政策效果及其對中國的影響,分析表明:一方面,美聯儲的非傳統貨幣政策,主要是通過基礎貨幣的增加而增加了貨幣供給量,政策刺激信貸擴張的效果比較微弱。貨幣供給量大量增加導致美元貶值、國際大宗商品價格大幅上漲。另一方面,美聯儲的非傳統貨幣政策導致國際大宗商品價格大幅上漲,使中國面臨著較大的輸入型通脹壓力。由于美國貨幣供給增加,,美元貶值,加劇了人民幣過快升值的壓力。
[Abstract]:The collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, the financial crisis that originated in the United States quickly swept the world, the world economy has not yet completely out of the haze of the crisis. The effectiveness of monetary policy, one of the macroeconomic adjustment tools of the government, has been questioned once again.Central banks around the world have taken action to deal with the crisis. With the deepening of the financial crisis, the world's major central banks, in addition to adopting traditional monetary policies focusing on lowering short-term interest rates,It also actively adopts the non-traditional monetary policy represented by the expansion of the balance sheet of the central bank.This paper makes a systematic analysis of the theoretical framework, the policy practice, the effect of the policy and the empirical test of the influence of the non-traditional monetary policy.The first chapter introduces the basis and purpose of the thesis, literature review and definition of relevant concepts, existing problems, research content and methods and research framework.The second chapter makes a theoretical analysis of the non-traditional monetary policy, first introduces the relevant theories of monetary policy, then analyzes the transmission mechanism and characteristics of the non-traditional monetary policy, and then analyzes the balance sheet of the central bank.The influence of unconventional monetary policy on macro-economy is analyzed from the point of view of the transaction object of central bank and the behavior of non-traditional monetary policy.The third chapter selects the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the people's Bank of China as the object, carries on the non-traditional monetary policy to the macroeconomic influence comparative analysis.The fourth chapter is the empirical analysis of the impact of unconventional monetary policy on macroeconomic. Firstly, it introduces the research samples and data sources, and then introduces the model of the impact of non-traditional monetary policy on macroeconomic.Finally, based on the relevant macroeconomic data of the United States and China, empirical analysis is carried out.The fifth chapter is the countermeasures and suggestions on the macro-economic impact of non-traditional monetary policy.This paper analyzes the unconventional monetary policy, and empirically tests the effect of the Federal Reserve's non-traditional monetary policy and its impact on China by using the macroeconomic data of the United States. The analysis shows that, on the one hand, the Federal Reserve's unconventional monetary policy,The monetary supply is increased mainly through the increase of the base currency, and the effect of the policy to stimulate the credit expansion is weak.A large increase in currency supply led to a depreciation of the dollar and a sharp rise in international commodity prices.On the other hand, the Fed's unconventional monetary policy has led to a sharp rise in international commodity prices, putting China under greater imported inflationary pressure.As the US money supply increases, the dollar depreciates, exacerbating the pressure on the yuan to appreciate too quickly.
【學位授予單位】:上海理工大學
【學位級別】:碩士
【學位授予年份】:2012
【分類號】:F821.0;F113
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