本文選題：外匯儲備　切入點：Agarwal模型　出處：《西北農(nóng)林科技大學》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：作為一國國際經(jīng)濟體系的重要部分，外匯儲備也是一國國際貨幣體系的核心部分，是一國經(jīng)濟實力的重要標志之一，衡量一國綜合實力的重要指標之一。外匯儲備一直是各國政府工作中的重點，也是政府部門和學術(shù)界重點研究對象。因為外匯儲備是否充足直接影響我國的國際信譽及金融安全。但是，我國外匯儲備規(guī)模自外匯體制改革后一直保持高增長的態(tài)勢，到2011年底達到31811.48億美元。外匯儲備是把雙刃劍，規(guī)模過小無法保證經(jīng)濟安全，規(guī)模過大會阻礙經(jīng)濟發(fā)展，抑制經(jīng)濟增長。所以，保持外匯儲備適度規(guī)模關(guān)系一個國家的經(jīng)濟安全。 文章對成本收益法原始的Agarwal模型進行修正，利用修正的Agarwal模型對我國2000-2011年間的外匯儲備進行實證分析，計算出我國近十二年的外匯儲備適度規(guī)模，結(jié)合實際比較分析后得出結(jié)論：我國外匯儲備在2003年前處于不足狀態(tài)，但是逐漸在縮小與適度規(guī)模之間的差值，向適度規(guī)�？拷�；從2004年開始處于嚴重過剩狀態(tài)，且這種過剩程度不斷在攀升，從2007年開始過剩程度已經(jīng)遠遠超過了100%，并且預(yù)計這種嚴重過剩狀態(tài)會持續(xù)下去。 文章從政府和民間角度對我國外匯儲備規(guī)模管理進行了分析，提出了幾點建議：1、要加強監(jiān)控資本的流入尤其是短期資本，，增加歐元和日元等資產(chǎn)在外匯儲備中的比重，完善我國外匯儲備的幣種結(jié)構(gòu)，確保多元化；2、完善人民幣匯率形成機制改革和優(yōu)化外匯管理機制，完善統(tǒng)計系統(tǒng)，防止“熱錢”流入；3、積極拓寬外匯儲備的投資渠道，減少外匯儲備存儲的機會成本；4、完善我國金融法律體系，優(yōu)化對外直接投資，盡快制定專門的《外匯儲備管理法》，建立更加有效的安全預(yù)警機制；5、適度放松資本管制，平衡外匯流入，實現(xiàn)藏匯于民。隨著經(jīng)濟發(fā)展，民間用匯需求增加。國家應(yīng)制定相關(guān)法律政策，適當放寬持有與使用外匯的政策限制，鼓勵民間持有外匯，逐步滿足民間用匯需求，也能減輕外匯儲備超長增長的負擔。
[Abstract]:As an important part of a country's international economic system, foreign exchange reserves are also the core part of an international monetary system, one of the important symbols of a country's economic strength and one of the important indicators to measure a country's comprehensive strength.Foreign exchange reserve has been the focus of government work, and also the key research object of government and academia.Because whether the foreign exchange reserve is sufficient or not directly affects our country's international prestige and the financial security.However, the scale of China's foreign exchange reserves has maintained a high growth trend since the reform of the foreign exchange system, reaching $3.181148 trillion by the end of 2011.Foreign exchange reserve is a double-edged sword, too small to ensure economic security, too large to hinder economic development, inhibit economic growth.Therefore, maintaining the appropriate scale of foreign exchange reserves is related to the economic security of a country.In this paper, the original Agarwal model of cost-income approach is revised, and the empirical analysis of China's foreign exchange reserves from 2000 to 2011 is carried out by using the modified Agarwal model, and the appropriate scale of foreign exchange reserves in recent 12 years is calculated.The conclusion is that China's foreign exchange reserves were in a state of insufficiency before 2003, but the difference between reducing and moderate scale gradually approached to a moderate scale, and since 2004, China's foreign exchange reserves have been in a serious surplus state.And the glut is rising, well over 100 since 2007, and is expected to continue.This paper analyzes the scale management of China's foreign exchange reserves from the angle of government and private sector, and puts forward several suggestions: to strengthen the monitoring of capital inflows, especially short-term capital, and to increase the proportion of assets such as euro and yen in foreign exchange reserves.To improve the currency structure of China's foreign exchange reserves, to ensure diversification, to perfect the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, to reform and optimize the foreign exchange management mechanism, to perfect the statistical system, to prevent "hot money" from flowing into China, and to actively broaden the investment channels for foreign exchange reserves.To reduce the opportunity cost of storing foreign exchange reserves; to improve our financial legal system; to optimize foreign direct investment; to formulate a special Foreign Exchange Reserve Management Law as soon as possible; to establish a more effective security early warning mechanism; and to relax capital controls moderately.Balance the inflow of foreign exchange and realize the transfer of foreign exchange to the people.With economic development, private exchange demand increased.The state should formulate relevant legal policies, appropriately relax the policy restrictions on the holding and use of foreign exchange, encourage the private sector to hold foreign exchange, gradually meet the demand for private exchange exchange, and reduce the burden of excessive growth of foreign exchange reserves.
【學位授予單位】：西北農(nóng)林科技大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.6;F224

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