本文選題：貨幣錯配　切入點：匯率政策　出處：《山東財經(jīng)大學》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：在我國，自20世紀90年代以來，外幣資產(chǎn)和外幣負債的不匹配，使我國存在著顯著的貨幣錯配，隨著匯率等其它因素的波動變化，相應(yīng)的貨幣錯配也會產(chǎn)生變動。當貨幣錯配積累到一定程度時，會對一個國家的經(jīng)濟體系產(chǎn)生不良影響。在宏觀層面上，容易加劇金融體系的動蕩，降低貨幣政策的有效性，影響匯率政策靈活性。貨幣錯配的加深也會導致宏觀經(jīng)濟政策的沖突，特別是貨幣政策與匯率政策的沖突，影響著宏觀經(jīng)濟的穩(wěn)定性。對于我國來說，國際上金融危機影響尚未消退，歐洲債務(wù)危機震動未減，經(jīng)濟下行陰霾籠罩全球，國際原油黃金價格連創(chuàng)新高，美國以鄰為壑的量化寬松政策，面臨巨大的輸入型通脹壓力，國內(nèi)通貨膨脹壓力高居不下。在這樣一個及其復雜金融環(huán)境下，我國匯率政策與貨幣政策調(diào)整的取向與力度意義重大，而能否處理好貨幣錯配問題事關(guān)匯率和貨幣政策的有效性和靈活性，關(guān)系到我國經(jīng)濟能否穩(wěn)定和可持續(xù)發(fā)展。本文基于貨幣錯配理論將匯率政策和貨幣政策緊密的聯(lián)系起來，為我國貨幣政策和匯率政策的制定和調(diào)整提供了一個全新的視角，對于政策的制定調(diào)整，市場對貨幣政策和匯率政策認識理解有一定的現(xiàn)實意義。 本文先從理論角度分析我國貨幣錯配的特殊情況與決定因素，做出基本判斷；后結(jié)合我國實際數(shù)據(jù)，結(jié)合與匯率政策、貨幣政策相關(guān)的匯率，M2指數(shù)，CPI指數(shù)等具體數(shù)據(jù)進行分析，驗證理論判斷正確與否。本文內(nèi)容和結(jié)論主要包括以下幾個部分： （1）首先論述研究背景、意義，較為翔實的進行文獻綜述，將國內(nèi)外的研究情況進行一個系統(tǒng)總結(jié)。創(chuàng)新性的將貨幣錯配與我國匯率政策、貨幣政策有機的結(jié)合起來進行系統(tǒng)性的研究。 （2）對我國貨幣錯配的現(xiàn)狀進行分析。介紹影響貨幣錯配的相關(guān)理論和估算貨幣錯配量的計算模型，分析影響我國貨幣錯配的因素。在此基礎(chǔ)上對我國貨幣錯配程度的基本估算，發(fā)現(xiàn)我國貨幣錯配的情況目前比較嚴重，，正處于一個上升通道，且與不同時期下我國經(jīng)濟政策有關(guān)系。 （3）通過實證方法對貨幣錯配與匯率政策，貨幣錯配與貨幣政策進行相關(guān)性的實證研究。 實證結(jié)果表明，匯率的變動是影響貨幣錯配變動的重要因素之一，匯率的變動對貨幣錯配的影響是持續(xù)的。人民幣升值有助于減輕貨幣錯配。同時，通過分段比較發(fā)現(xiàn)，貨幣錯配情況還與匯率制度選擇聯(lián)系緊密。不同的匯率制度對于貨幣錯配情況的影響也是不同的 用E-G兩步協(xié)整法，Granger檢驗等實證方法對我國貨幣錯配情況與我國貨幣政策的相關(guān)性進行了檢驗。一方面檢驗了貨幣錯配與貨幣政策中介目標——貨幣供給的關(guān)系；另一方面，檢驗了貨幣錯配與貨幣政策的最終目標——價格穩(wěn)定與經(jīng)濟增長的相關(guān)性。得出結(jié)論為：我國貨幣錯配程度與廣義貨幣供給量之間呈現(xiàn)較強的正相關(guān)性，我國的貨幣錯配對廣義貨幣供給量所造成的影響是長期的，且滯后期較長。由于貨幣錯配對貨幣供給的影響，削弱了中央銀行貨幣政策的獨立性，而且還直接導致了當前以貨幣供應(yīng)量為中介目標的貨幣政策效果的弱化和低效率性。貨幣錯配能夠影響物價水平和通貨膨脹率，但是對我國貨幣政策的產(chǎn)出效應(yīng)影響不是十分明顯，即對于經(jīng)濟增長沒有什么明顯的影響。 （4）從創(chuàng)新性的貨幣錯配視角，將貨幣與匯率政策綜合考量，分析了由于貨幣錯配的存在導致的我國在貨幣與匯率政策的選擇性矛盾。并提出了改善貨幣錯配狀況，化解矛盾性的政策建議：改變經(jīng)濟增長觀念，提高對外投資力度，完善金融市場，選擇合適的宏觀經(jīng)濟政策，改革結(jié)售匯制度等。
[Abstract]:In China, since 1990s, foreign currency assets and liabilities, so that our country has a significant monetary mismatch, along with other factors such as exchange rate fluctuations, the corresponding monetary mismatch will produce changes. When currency mismatch has accumulated to a certain extent, will have a negative impact on a the country's economic system. At the macro level, easy to aggravate the turmoil in the financial system, reduce the effectiveness of monetary policy, flexibility of exchange rate policy. The currency mismatch can also lead to the deepening conflict of macroeconomic policy, especially monetary policy and exchange rate policy conflict, affect the stability of macro economy in China. And the international financial crisis, the European debt crisis shock is not reduced, haze enveloped the world economic downturn, the international crude oil price of gold with a new high, the quantitative easing policy facing the beggar thy neighbour. The input type inflation pressure, domestic inflation pressure remains high. In such a complex financial environment, orientation and strength significance of China's exchange rate policy and monetary policy adjustment is significant, and can effectively deal with the problem of currency mismatch is related to exchange rate and monetary policy flexibility and relates to whether our economy the stable and sustainable development. This paper based on the theory of currency mismatch will exchange rate policy and monetary policy closely linked, provides a new perspective for the formulation and adjustment of monetary policy and exchange rate policy in our country, the policy adjustment, the market has a certain practical significance for the understanding of monetary policy and exchange rate policy.
This paper first analyzes the special situation and determinants of currency mismatch in China from the perspective of theory, makes the basic judgment; then with China's actual data, combined with the exchange rate policy, exchange rate, monetary policy related to the M2 index, CPI index and other specific data analysis, verify the theoretical judgment is correct or not. The main contents and conclusions include the following parts:
(1) first, we discuss the background and significance of the study, make a detailed summary of the literature, and make a systematic summary of the research at home and abroad. We systematically combine currency mismatch with China's exchange rate policy and monetary policy.
(2) the status quo of China's currency mismatch is analyzed. The calculation model of related theory and estimation of currency mismatch was introduced the effects of currency mismatch, analysis of influence factors of currency mismatch in China. The basic estimate of China's currency mismatch on the basis of this, found that China's currency mismatches at present, more serious, is in a rising channel, and with the different period of China's economic policy.
(3) empirical research on the correlation between currency mismatch and exchange rate policy, currency mismatch and monetary policy through empirical methods.
The empirical results show that the change of exchange rate is one of the important factors influencing the currency mismatch of changes in the impact of exchange rate on currency mismatch is sustained. The appreciation of the renminbi helps reduce currency mismatches. At the same time, through piecewise comparison, currency mismatch and the choice of exchange rate regime is closely linked. The influence of different exchange rate system for currency mismatch is different
The two step using E-G cointegration method, an empirical method of Granger test on China's currency mismatch and monetary policy in China is tested. On the one hand to test the relationship between currency mismatch and the intermediate target of monetary policy, money supply; on the other hand, to test the correlation between currency mismatch and the ultimate goal of monetary policy the price stability and economic growth. The conclusion is: has a strong positive correlation between the degree of currency mismatch in China and the broad money supply, the impact of China's currency mismatch caused by the broad money supply is long-term, and a longer lag. Due to the impact of currency mismatch on monetary supply, weaken the independence of the central bank's monetary policy, but also led directly to the current money supply as the intermediate target of the monetary policy effect is weakened and inefficiency. The currency mismatch can affect the price of water The rate of leveling and inflation, but the effect on the output effect of our monetary policy is not very obvious, that is, there is no obvious impact on economic growth.
(4) from the perspective of innovation of currency mismatch, the comprehensive consideration of monetary and exchange rate policy in China is analyzed due to the existence of currency mismatch resulting in the selective contradiction between monetary and exchange rate policy. And puts forward the improvement of currency mismatch, resolve the contradiction of the policy recommendations: to change the economic growth concept, improve the foreign investment, improve the financial market, select the appropriate macroeconomic policies, reform the settlement system.

【學位授予單位】：山東財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F822.0;F832.6;F224

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