本文選題：資產(chǎn)價(jià)格　切入點(diǎn)：貨幣政策　出處：《云南大學(xué)》2012年博士論文

【摘要】：隨著中國金融市場的深化和資產(chǎn)市場在國民經(jīng)濟(jì)中作用的不斷增強(qiáng),資產(chǎn)價(jià)格與宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的關(guān)系將變得越來越重要,資產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動對貨幣政策的制定和實(shí)施也將產(chǎn)生越來越大的影響。因此,深入研究中國資產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動對宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響以及貨幣政策應(yīng)對資產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動的策略,無疑將具有十分重要的理論意義和實(shí)踐涵義。 本文在研究思路上依循貨幣政策緣何要應(yīng)對資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的波動?貨幣政策有沒有能力應(yīng)對資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的波動?貨幣政策到底應(yīng)如何應(yīng)對資產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動這樣一個(gè)邏輯順序,在綜合運(yùn)用理論分析、規(guī)范分析、實(shí)證分析、案例分析等多種研究方法的基礎(chǔ)上,對資產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動對通貨膨脹、金融穩(wěn)定的影響,貨幣政策對資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的影響以及貨幣政策的應(yīng)對策略等問題展開研究,得出的主要結(jié)論如下： 1.從中國資產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動對通貨膨脹的影響上看,無論是在長期還是短期,資產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動對通貨膨脹均已產(chǎn)生了不容忽視的影響,而且房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格對通貨膨脹的影響要大于股票價(jià)格,貨幣政策應(yīng)該更加關(guān)注房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的波動。由于目前中國資產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動對消費(fèi)、投資的影響還不顯著,因此,資產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動主要是通過影響公眾通貨膨脹預(yù)期而對通貨膨脹產(chǎn)生了不容忽視的影響。構(gòu)建的廣義動態(tài)價(jià)格指數(shù)證明其對通貨膨脹具有一定的預(yù)測作用。2.從中國資產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動對金融穩(wěn)定的影響上看,股票價(jià)格和銀行信貸之間還不存在相互加強(qiáng)的作用機(jī)制,股票價(jià)格對銀行信貸有一定的影響,銀行信貸對股票價(jià)格的影響很��；而房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格和銀行信貸已形成一定程度相互加強(qiáng)的作用機(jī)制,資產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動通過銀行信貸對金融穩(wěn)定造成了不可忽視的影響。3.從中國貨幣政策對資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的影響上看,無論是從影響力的大小,還是從影響的有效性方面來看,貨幣供應(yīng)量均要優(yōu)于利率。因此,貨幣政策在應(yīng)對資產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動時(shí),應(yīng)優(yōu)先考慮使用數(shù)量型貨幣政策工具。4.中國貨幣政策在應(yīng)對資產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動時(shí)應(yīng)遵循：在堅(jiān)持物價(jià)穩(wěn)定目標(biāo)的同時(shí),也要積極應(yīng)對資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的波動；構(gòu)建廣義價(jià)格指數(shù),將其作為貨幣政策目標(biāo)的輔助監(jiān)測指標(biāo)；貨幣政策應(yīng)對資產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動的反應(yīng)方式應(yīng)是規(guī)則性和靈活性的結(jié)合；選擇合適的貨幣政策工具來防范資產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動的金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)；對資產(chǎn)價(jià)格變化進(jìn)行監(jiān)測,建立一套資產(chǎn)價(jià)格泡沫的預(yù)警指標(biāo)體系；貨幣政策應(yīng)實(shí)施“對稱”的逆周期操作；貨幣政策應(yīng)與宏觀審慎監(jiān)管協(xié)調(diào)配合,共同防范資產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)；加強(qiáng)國際合作,共同應(yīng)對資產(chǎn)價(jià)格泡沫等策略。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of China's financial market and the increasing role of the asset market in the national economy, the relationship between asset prices and the macro economy will become more and more important.The fluctuation of asset price will have more and more influence on the formulation and implementation of monetary policy.Therefore, it is undoubtedly of great theoretical and practical significance to study the impact of asset price fluctuation on macro economy and the strategy of monetary policy to deal with asset price fluctuation in China.Why should we deal with the fluctuation of asset price according to the monetary policy in this paper?Does monetary policy have the capacity to cope with volatility in asset prices?In the end, how should monetary policy deal with the logical order of asset price fluctuations? on the basis of comprehensive use of various research methods, such as theoretical analysis, normative analysis, empirical analysis, case study, and so on, the impact of asset price volatility on inflation,The main conclusions are as follows: (1) the impact of financial stability, the impact of monetary policy on asset prices, and the coping strategies of monetary policy are studied.1.Judging from the impact of asset price fluctuations on inflation in China, both in the long run and in the short term, asset price fluctuations have had a significant impact on inflation.Moreover, the impact of real estate price on inflation is greater than that of stock price, so monetary policy should pay more attention to the fluctuation of real estate price.At present, the fluctuation of asset price in China has little effect on consumption and investment. Therefore, the fluctuation of asset price mainly influences the expectation of public inflation and has a significant impact on inflation.The generalized dynamic price index is proved to be a predictor of inflation. 2. 2.From the point of view of the impact of asset price fluctuation on financial stability, there is no mutually reinforcing mechanism between stock price and bank credit. Stock price has a certain influence on bank credit, and bank credit has little effect on stock price.But the real estate price and the bank credit already formed the certain degree mutually strengthens the function mechanism, the asset price fluctuation has caused the unnegligible influence to the financial stability through the bank credit.In terms of the impact of China's monetary policy on asset prices, the money supply is superior to interest rates in terms of both the size of the influence and the effectiveness of the impact.Therefore, monetary policy in response to asset price fluctuations, should give priority to the use of quantitative monetary policy instrument. 4.When dealing with the fluctuation of asset price, China's monetary policy should follow: while adhering to the goal of price stability, it should also actively deal with the fluctuation of asset price, construct a broad price index as a supplementary monitoring index of monetary policy objectives,The response of monetary policy to asset price volatility should be a combination of regularity and flexibility; choosing appropriate monetary policy tools to guard against financial risks of asset price volatility; monitoring changes in asset prices;To establish an early warning index system for asset price bubbles; to implement a "symmetrical" countercyclical operation of monetary policy; to coordinate monetary policy with macro-prudential supervision to guard against the risk of asset price fluctuations; and to strengthen international cooperation.Jointly deal with asset price bubbles and other strategies.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：云南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F822.0;F293.3;F832.51;F224

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