本文選題：巴拉薩-薩繆爾森效應(yīng)　切入點(diǎn)：人民幣實(shí)際匯率　出處：《湖南大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：巴拉薩-薩繆爾森理論認(rèn)為,一國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速增長(zhǎng)帶來(lái)可貿(mào)易部門以及不可貿(mào)易部門工資的上漲,進(jìn)一步帶動(dòng)了整個(gè)國(guó)家的物價(jià)總體水平的上漲,最終引起了實(shí)際匯率的上升,本質(zhì)上來(lái)說(shuō)就是本幣的升值。中國(guó)自改革開(kāi)放后經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)了快速的增長(zhǎng),伴隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),可貿(mào)易部門的勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率得到迅速地提高,同時(shí)兩部門工資水平也出現(xiàn)快速上漲,然而人民幣實(shí)際匯率卻沒(méi)有出現(xiàn)相應(yīng)地變動(dòng),在長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)人民幣是貶值的,這就與巴拉薩-薩繆爾森效應(yīng)相違背了,因此本文根據(jù)中國(guó)工資的現(xiàn)狀、與實(shí)際匯率密切相關(guān)的貿(mào)易條件以及近幾年急劇增長(zhǎng)的外匯儲(chǔ)備這樣的中國(guó)國(guó)情對(duì)巴拉薩-薩繆爾森效應(yīng)模型進(jìn)行了修正。 本文構(gòu)建了中國(guó)兩部門勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率之比、兩部門工資水平之比、貿(mào)易條件系數(shù)以及外匯儲(chǔ)備與人民幣匯率變動(dòng)的時(shí)間序列計(jì)量模型,首先對(duì)1979-2010年各變量影響人民幣匯率變動(dòng)進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析,兩部門勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率之比與中國(guó)人民幣實(shí)際匯率呈現(xiàn)負(fù)向相關(guān)關(guān)系,兩部門工資水平與人民幣實(shí)際匯率正向相關(guān),貿(mào)易條件指數(shù)與人民幣匯率負(fù)相關(guān),外匯儲(chǔ)備的變動(dòng)與人民幣匯率呈正向相關(guān)關(guān)系,再以中國(guó)1994年匯率制度改革為界限,分階段討論以上變量對(duì)于人民幣匯率的影響,結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)1979-1994年間,兩部門勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率之比與中國(guó)人民幣實(shí)際匯率變動(dòng)正相關(guān),兩部門工資水平與人民幣實(shí)際匯率呈反向變動(dòng)關(guān)系,貿(mào)易條件指數(shù)與人民幣實(shí)際匯率負(fù)相關(guān),外匯儲(chǔ)備與人民幣實(shí)際匯率變動(dòng)正相關(guān)；1995-2010年間兩部門勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率之比與人民幣實(shí)際匯率負(fù)相關(guān),兩部門工資水平與人民幣匯率正相關(guān),貿(mào)易條件指數(shù)與人民幣實(shí)際匯率負(fù)相關(guān),外匯儲(chǔ)備則與人民幣實(shí)際匯率正相關(guān)。 本文認(rèn)為通過(guò)匯率制度改革來(lái)提高人民幣匯率的市場(chǎng)化程度以及自由化程度,這種措施有助于緩解人民幣匯率低估對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定帶來(lái)的沖擊,同時(shí)應(yīng)該加快第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展,提高第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率,縮小中國(guó)兩部門之間勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率的差距,以此來(lái)緩解人民幣的升值壓力。
[Abstract]:The Balassa-Samuelson theory holds that the rapid growth of a country's economy brings about a rise in wages in both the tradable and non-tradable sectors, further driving up the overall level of prices in the whole country, and eventually leading to the rise of the real exchange rate. In essence, it is the appreciation of the local currency. China has experienced rapid economic growth since the reform and opening up. Along with economic growth, the productivity of the tradable sector has increased rapidly, and wages in both sectors have also risen rapidly. However, there is no corresponding change in the real exchange rate of RMB. In the long run, the RMB is devalued, which is contrary to the Balassa-Samuelson effect. Therefore, according to the current situation of Chinese wages, The terms of trade closely related to the real exchange rate and the rapidly increasing foreign exchange reserves in recent years have modified the Balassa-Samuelson effect model. This paper constructs a time series measurement model of labor productivity ratio, wage level ratio, terms of trade coefficient and foreign exchange reserve and RMB exchange rate change in two sectors of China. First of all, the paper makes an empirical analysis on the effect of variables on the RMB exchange rate from 1979 to 2010. The ratio of labor productivity between the two sectors and the real exchange rate of China's RMB show a negative correlation, and the wage level of the two sectors is positively correlated with the real exchange rate of the RMB. The terms of trade index is negatively correlated with the RMB exchange rate, the change of foreign exchange reserves is positively correlated with the RMB exchange rate, and the influence of the above variables on the RMB exchange rate is discussed in stages, taking China's exchange rate system reform in 1994 as the limit. The results show that the ratio of labor productivity between the two sectors is positively related to the real exchange rate of RMB in China, the wage level of the two sectors is inversely related to the real exchange rate of RMB, and the terms of trade index is negatively correlated with the real exchange rate of RMB. The ratio of labor productivity between 1995 and 2010 is negatively correlated with the real exchange rate of RMB, the wage level of the two sectors is positively correlated with the RMB exchange rate, and the terms of trade index is negatively correlated with the real exchange rate of RMB. Foreign exchange reserves are positively related to the real exchange rate of the renminbi. This paper argues that the marketization and liberalization of RMB exchange rate can be improved through the reform of exchange rate regime, which will help to mitigate the impact of RMB undervaluation on China's economic stability. At the same time, we should speed up the development of the tertiary industry, improve the labor productivity of the tertiary industry, and narrow the gap between the labor productivity of the two sectors in China, so as to ease the pressure of RMB appreciation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6;F224

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