本文選題：投入產(chǎn)出　切入點(diǎn)：貨幣流　出處：《哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：貨幣政策對(duì)國(guó)家宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)起著至關(guān)重要的作用，中央銀行的主要職責(zé)便是通過實(shí)施不同的貨幣政策，調(diào)節(jié)貨幣供給，起到調(diào)節(jié)國(guó)家宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的作用，存款準(zhǔn)備金比率，公開市場(chǎng)業(yè)務(wù)操作和再貼現(xiàn)政策是央行調(diào)節(jié)貨幣供給的三大主要手段。但近幾年全球金融市場(chǎng)的不穩(wěn)定性，為宏觀調(diào)控增大了困難，央行所采用的貨幣效果一再減弱，這種狀況讓我們開始重新思考貨幣政策的有效性。本文從多部門間貨幣流動(dòng)的角度，利用投入產(chǎn)出分析方法對(duì)這一問題展開系統(tǒng)深入的研究。我們?cè)谠敿?xì)考察了各微觀主體的貨幣收支特征的基礎(chǔ)上，將其劃分為家庭部門、最終產(chǎn)品制造企業(yè)、原材料及中間產(chǎn)品制造企業(yè)、商業(yè)企業(yè)、非銀行金融機(jī)構(gòu)、政府部門、中央銀行和商業(yè)銀行八個(gè)部門， 首先基于貨幣流出的固定比例假設(shè),建立了多部門間貨幣流動(dòng)的橫向投入產(chǎn)出模型和多部門間貨幣流動(dòng)的縱向投入產(chǎn)出模型；對(duì)基于橫向平衡關(guān)系的八部門貨幣流動(dòng)的投入產(chǎn)出方程組和基于縱向平衡關(guān)系的八部門貨幣流動(dòng)的投入產(chǎn)出方程組進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)的求解；基于完全流入系數(shù)矩陣A的所有元素都是非負(fù)的，，完全流入系數(shù)矩陣A的各列元素之和小于1，證明了基于投入產(chǎn)出模型的完全流入系數(shù)矩陣A相關(guān)的（I-A）的逆矩陣的存在性；直接流入系數(shù)對(duì)完全流入矩陣的影響可以通過一階近似進(jìn)行定量計(jì)算。在這個(gè)基礎(chǔ)之上，又提出了一種更加完整、更加合理的混合型投入產(chǎn)出模型，依據(jù)構(gòu)建的不同部門10年的貨幣流數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)混合型貨幣流模型的合理性進(jìn)行了實(shí)例分析，Eviews的t假設(shè)檢驗(yàn)表明：貨幣流數(shù)據(jù)構(gòu)建正確，可以確定部門間的貨幣流相關(guān)性。并通過對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)的分析對(duì)單一的投入產(chǎn)出模型和混合型投入產(chǎn)出模型的適用性做出了解釋。最后構(gòu)建了接近真實(shí)的系數(shù)矩陣，得到兩個(gè)系數(shù)矩陣和其逆矩陣。這兩個(gè)系數(shù)矩陣分別是銀行存款變化導(dǎo)致每?jī)蓚�(gè)部門間貨幣流量的變化系數(shù)，和銀行貸款變化導(dǎo)致的每?jī)蓚�(gè)部門間貨幣流的變化。利用這兩個(gè)系數(shù)矩陣可以更加直觀分析銀行存貸款對(duì)于各部門貨幣流量的變化。單獨(dú)分析了家庭部門和中間產(chǎn)品制造業(yè)中，受存貸款影響最大的和最小的部門及其影響原因。其他的部門間貨幣流的變化，也可以由同樣的方法的到。這一研究方法，可以在央行施行不同的貨幣政策時(shí)提供依據(jù)和參考。
[Abstract]:Monetary policy plays a vital role in the country's macro-economy. The central bank's main duty is to regulate the national macro-economy by implementing different monetary policies and regulating the money supply, and the ratio of deposits to reserves. The operation of open market operations and the policy of rediscount are the three major means by which the central bank adjusts the money supply. However, the instability of the global financial market in recent years has made it more difficult for macroeconomic regulation and control, and the monetary effect adopted by the central bank has been weakened again and again. This situation has led us to rethink the effectiveness of monetary policy. Based on the detailed study of the characteristics of the money balance of various micro entities, we divide it into household sector, final product manufacturing enterprise, and so on. Eight departments, including raw materials and intermediate products manufacturing enterprises, commercial enterprises, non-bank financial institutions, government departments, central banks and commercial banks, Firstly, based on the fixed proportion hypothesis of money outflow, the horizontal input-output model of multi-sector currency flow and the vertical input-output model of multi-sector currency flow are established. The input-output equations of the eight-sector money flow based on the horizontal equilibrium relationship and the input-output equations of the eight-sector monetary flows based on the longitudinal equilibrium relationship are solved in detail. Based on the fact that all the elements of the complete inflow coefficient matrix A are non-negative, and the sum of the elements of the complete inflow coefficient matrix A is less than 1, the existence of the inverse matrix of the complete inflow coefficient matrix A related to I-A based on the input-output model is proved. The influence of direct inflow coefficient on the complete inflow matrix can be calculated quantitatively by first order approximation. On this basis, a more complete and reasonable hybrid input-output model is proposed. According to the money flow data of different departments for 10 years, the rationality of the mixed money flow model is analyzed by a case study. The t hypothesis test of Eviews shows that the money flow data is constructed correctly. By analyzing the data, the applicability of a single input-output model and a mixed input-output model is explained. Finally, a near-real coefficient matrix is constructed. Two coefficient matrices and their inverse matrices are obtained. Using these two coefficient matrices, we can more intuitively analyze the change of bank deposit and loan to the money flow of each sector. The most and least affected by deposits and loans and the reasons for their influence. The changes of other interdepartmental money flows can also be made by the same method. This research method can provide the basis and reference for the central bank to carry out different monetary policies.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F822.0;F832.0;F223

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