本文選題：人民幣匯率　切入點(diǎn)：匯率水平　出處：《湖南大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：匯率問題一直是國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者廣泛關(guān)注的問題，而人民幣匯率問題也隨著中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的持續(xù)高速增長(zhǎng)走進(jìn)許多學(xué)者的視線。自1994年匯改以來(lái)，人民幣匯率問題成為國(guó)際金融界關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)。在國(guó)際收支雙順差、不斷增加的巨額外匯儲(chǔ)備等諸多因素的共同影響下，人民幣開始了近十年的總體升值走勢(shì)。眾所周知，匯率問題對(duì)于一國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響是巨大的。日本“失落的十年”、東南亞金融危機(jī)等等問題都與匯率存在著不小的聯(lián)系。多重壓力之下，人民幣匯率問題的解決具有現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文綜合了國(guó)內(nèi)外研究成果，，發(fā)現(xiàn)以往對(duì)于匯率的研究鮮有從博弈論的視角進(jìn)行研究分析。所以本文從博弈論的視角出發(fā)，將博弈模型與統(tǒng)計(jì)計(jì)量模型結(jié)合，通過大量的數(shù)據(jù)以及詳實(shí)的資料全面地對(duì)人民幣匯率問題進(jìn)行研究分析。 本文首先從匯率決定理論出發(fā)，分析了決定匯率水平的各要素，并由此概括出匯率水平的影響主體；再接著分析匯率變動(dòng)會(huì)給各影響主體的收益、利益帶來(lái)的影響，由此構(gòu)建了不同博弈主體之間的博弈模型，其中包括中國(guó)政府同外國(guó)投資者間的博弈模型、中國(guó)政府同外國(guó)政府之間的博弈模型、中國(guó)政府同本國(guó)公眾間的博弈模型；通過各影響主體間的博弈分析得出，各影響主體都是在為自身利益最大化進(jìn)行博弈，而中國(guó)政府作為人民幣匯率水平的最大影響主體，應(yīng)該在照顧各方影響主體利益的同時(shí)，盡力保持人民幣匯率的基本穩(wěn)定，使中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)平穩(wěn)、健康發(fā)展；最后，本文對(duì)上世紀(jì)70年代到上世紀(jì)90年代日本匯率變動(dòng)進(jìn)行分析，以史為鑒，對(duì)于日本政府的做法我們需要取其精華去其糟粕，旨在為我國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)策略進(jìn)行指導(dǎo)，避免政策方向偏離正確的軌道。 分析結(jié)果表明：1.具有投機(jī)行為的外國(guó)投資者、很樂意從匯率的大幅波動(dòng)中謀取利益，中國(guó)政府應(yīng)在對(duì)外資保持高度警惕的情況下保持制定政策的自主權(quán)。2.以美國(guó)為首的外國(guó)政府，是給人民幣升值壓力的主體，這樣做的目的是使本國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)內(nèi)外部均衡，但分析結(jié)果表明這樣做的效果甚微；反觀中國(guó)政府，不能任由外國(guó)政府?dāng)[布，應(yīng)綜合分析國(guó)內(nèi)外各方面經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境的情況下實(shí)施最有效的匯率政策。3.本國(guó)公眾最希望看到本國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)平穩(wěn)、健康發(fā)展，不希望匯率有大幅波動(dòng)；所以政府如果要保持良好的信譽(yù)就必須保持匯率在合理的范圍內(nèi)浮動(dòng)。
[Abstract]:The issue of exchange rate has been widely concerned by scholars at home and abroad, and the issue of RMB exchange rate has come to the attention of many scholars along with the sustained and rapid growth of China's economy. The issue of RMB exchange rate has become the focus of attention in the international financial circles. Under the joint influence of many factors, such as the double surplus in the balance of payments and the ever-increasing huge foreign exchange reserves, the RMB has begun its overall appreciation trend in the past ten years. As we all know, The influence of exchange rate problem on a country's economy is great. Japan's "lost decade", Southeast Asian financial crisis and other problems have no small relationship with the exchange rate. Under multiple pressures, the solution of RMB exchange rate problem has practical significance. This paper synthesizes the domestic and foreign research results, and finds that the previous research on the exchange rate is seldom analyzed from the perspective of game theory, so this paper combines the game model with the statistical econometric model from the perspective of game theory. Through a large number of data and detailed information on the issue of RMB exchange rate research and analysis. Based on the theory of exchange rate determination, this paper analyzes the factors that determine the level of exchange rate, and then generalizes the main body influencing the level of exchange rate, and then analyzes the influence of the change of exchange rate on the income and benefit of each subject. From this, the game models between different players are constructed, including the game model between Chinese government and foreign investors, the game model between Chinese government and foreign government, and the game model between Chinese government and local public. Through the game analysis among the affected subjects, it is concluded that all the affected subjects are playing games for their own benefit maximization, and the Chinese government, as the biggest influence subject of RMB exchange rate level, should take care of the main interests of all the parties, at the same time, Try to maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate, so that China's economy is stable and healthy development. Finally, this paper analyzes the exchange rate changes in Japan from -30s to -10s, drawing lessons from history. In order to guide our country's economic strategy and avoid the policy direction deviating from the right track, we need to take the essence of the Japanese government to get rid of the dross. The results of the analysis show that foreign investors with speculative behavior are willing to profit from the large fluctuations in the exchange rate. The Chinese government should maintain its autonomy in formulating policies while maintaining a high degree of vigilance over foreign investment. Foreign governments led by the United States are the main body of pressure on the appreciation of the renminbi. The purpose of doing so is to balance the internal and external aspects of the domestic economy. However, the results of the analysis show that the effect of this approach has been minimal; on the other hand, the Chinese Government cannot be left to the mercy of foreign governments. It is necessary to carry out the most effective exchange rate policy under the condition of comprehensive analysis of the economic environment at home and abroad .3. the domestic public most wants to see the stable and healthy development of the domestic economy, and does not want the exchange rate to fluctuate substantially; So if the government is to maintain good reputation, it must keep the exchange rate floating within a reasonable range.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6;F224.32

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