本文選題：外匯儲(chǔ)備　切入點(diǎn)：貨幣供給　出處：《華東師范大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：在開(kāi)放的經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境下,輸入型通脹時(shí)常發(fā)生,并通過(guò)需求溢出機(jī)制、價(jià)格機(jī)制和流動(dòng)性機(jī)制的共同作用最終輸入國(guó)內(nèi),其中流動(dòng)性機(jī)制包括貿(mào)易型和資本型,具體反映為國(guó)際收支平衡表中經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目與資本金融項(xiàng)目的變化,也即外匯儲(chǔ)備總量的變化,流動(dòng)性機(jī)制輸入型通脹是指外匯儲(chǔ)備增長(zhǎng)加大了基礎(chǔ)貨幣投放,進(jìn)而產(chǎn)生通貨膨脹。本文正是基于流動(dòng)性機(jī)制,從貨幣性因素角度切入,探討外匯儲(chǔ)備快速增長(zhǎng)對(duì)中國(guó)物價(jià)變動(dòng)之間的關(guān)系。 外匯儲(chǔ)備過(guò)度積累是當(dāng)前重要的經(jīng)濟(jì)熱點(diǎn)問(wèn)題之一,其過(guò)度增長(zhǎng)對(duì)中國(guó)物價(jià)水平的變動(dòng)的影響也成為重要的研究課題。本文全面論述了外匯儲(chǔ)備增長(zhǎng)對(duì)物價(jià)變動(dòng)影響的傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制,并從外匯儲(chǔ)備的總規(guī)模和來(lái)源構(gòu)成兩方面,對(duì)中國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備增長(zhǎng)與物價(jià)變動(dòng)的關(guān)系進(jìn)行了實(shí)證研究。首先,從外匯儲(chǔ)備總規(guī)模角度分析,外匯儲(chǔ)備通過(guò)基礎(chǔ)貨幣促使貨幣供給內(nèi)生性增長(zhǎng),貨幣擴(kuò)張效應(yīng)又通過(guò)多種渠道傳導(dǎo)至物價(jià),實(shí)證分析顯示,外匯儲(chǔ)備對(duì)貨幣供給的影響是顯著的,貨幣供給對(duì)物價(jià)變動(dòng)的影響也同樣是顯著的,但貨幣供給的變動(dòng)并沒(méi)有完全傳導(dǎo)至物價(jià)波動(dòng)上,這是因?yàn)橹袊?guó)的貨幣供給向物價(jià)傳導(dǎo)的過(guò)程由于受到利率管制等因素的影響而發(fā)生傳導(dǎo)不暢的問(wèn)題。而且,外匯儲(chǔ)備總量變動(dòng)會(huì)對(duì)物價(jià)波動(dòng)產(chǎn)生直接的影響,但影響程度較小。其次,從外匯儲(chǔ)備來(lái)源構(gòu)成角度分析,外匯儲(chǔ)備主要來(lái)源于三方面途徑,即貿(mào)易順差、FDI和熱錢(qián),三種來(lái)源構(gòu)成產(chǎn)生的貨幣進(jìn)入各自流通領(lǐng)域后分別發(fā)揮對(duì)物價(jià)的作用。通過(guò)實(shí)證分析和檢驗(yàn),發(fā)現(xiàn)三種途徑對(duì)物價(jià)變動(dòng)的影響程度并不一致,經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目盈余對(duì)物價(jià)上漲的沖擊不大,而資本和金融項(xiàng)目盈余則會(huì)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)體系產(chǎn)生嚴(yán)重的沖擊,擴(kuò)大通貨膨脹風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。在外貿(mào)向基本平衡格局發(fā)展的趨勢(shì)下,目前中國(guó)的外匯儲(chǔ)備的來(lái)源構(gòu)成將會(huì)發(fā)生顯著變化,外匯儲(chǔ)備增長(zhǎng)動(dòng)力將逐漸由經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目盈余向資本和金融項(xiàng)目盈余轉(zhuǎn)化,這說(shuō)明外匯儲(chǔ)備規(guī)模擴(kuò)張對(duì)物價(jià)變動(dòng)的影響將愈加顯著。
[Abstract]:In an open economic environment, imported inflation often occurs, and through the joint action of demand spillover mechanism, price mechanism and liquidity mechanism, the liquidity mechanism includes trade type and capital type. Specifically reflected in the changes in the current account and the capital financial account in the balance of payments account, that is, the change in the total amount of foreign exchange reserves, the liquidity mechanism of imported inflation means that the growth of foreign exchange reserves increases the base monetary investment. Based on the liquidity mechanism, this paper explores the relationship between the rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves and the price changes in China from the perspective of monetary factors. Excessive accumulation of foreign exchange reserves is one of the most important economic hot issues at present. The influence of its excessive growth on the change of China's price level has also become an important research topic. This paper comprehensively discusses the transmission mechanism of the influence of the growth of foreign exchange reserves on price changes, and from the total scale and source composition of foreign exchange reserves, This paper makes an empirical study on the relationship between the growth of China's foreign exchange reserves and price changes. Firstly, from the perspective of the total size of foreign exchange reserves, foreign exchange reserves promote the endogenous growth of money supply through the base currency. The effect of monetary expansion is transmitted to prices through a variety of channels. Empirical analysis shows that the influence of foreign exchange reserves on money supply is significant, and the influence of money supply on price changes is also significant. However, the change in money supply has not been completely transmitted to price fluctuations. This is because the process of transmission of money supply to price in China is affected by factors such as interest rate control. Moreover, The change of the total amount of foreign exchange reserves will have a direct impact on price fluctuations, but to a lesser extent. Secondly, from the perspective of the source composition of foreign exchange reserves, foreign exchange reserves mainly come from three ways, namely, trade surplus, FDI and hot money. The currency formed by the three sources plays a role in the price after entering the respective circulation field. Through the empirical analysis and test, it is found that the influence of the three ways on the price changes is not consistent. The impact of current account surpluses on price increases is small, while capital and financial account surpluses will have a severe impact on the economic system and increase the risk of inflation. At present, the source composition of China's foreign exchange reserves will change significantly, and the growth momentum of foreign exchange reserves will gradually shift from current account surplus to capital and financial account surplus. This shows that the expansion of foreign exchange reserves will have a more significant impact on price changes.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華東師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6;F726;F224

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 周浩;朱啟貴;;外匯儲(chǔ)備快速增加與物價(jià)指數(shù)變動(dòng)[J];財(cái)經(jīng)科學(xué);2006年06期

2 宋金奇;;基于VAR模型分析外匯儲(chǔ)備對(duì)通貨膨脹的影響[J];財(cái)會(huì)月刊;2009年11期

3 王傳綸,閻先東;外匯儲(chǔ)備與通貨膨脹:中央銀行的對(duì)沖可行性分析[J];財(cái)貿(mào)經(jīng)濟(jì);1998年03期

4 陳雁云;外匯儲(chǔ)備增加對(duì)通貨膨脹的影響分析[J];當(dāng)代財(cái)經(jīng);2005年04期

5 田靜;;淺析我國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備過(guò)快增長(zhǎng)對(duì)基礎(chǔ)貨幣的影響[J];東方企業(yè)文化;2011年08期

6 楊記軍;王榮濤;肇啟偉;;外國(guó)直接投資對(duì)中國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備增長(zhǎng)的影響研究[J];國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)合作;2008年04期

7 張誼浩;裴平;方先明;;中國(guó)的短期國(guó)際資本流入及其動(dòng)機(jī)——基于利率、匯率和價(jià)格三重套利模型的實(shí)證研究[J];國(guó)際金融研究;2007年09期

8 陶士貴;外匯沖銷政策的效應(yīng)分析與對(duì)策思考[J];國(guó)際經(jīng)貿(mào)探索;1997年06期

9 張鵬;柳欣;;我國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備變動(dòng)對(duì)通貨膨脹的影響[J];世界經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2009年02期

10 劉洪洋;葉德磊;;中國(guó)的熱錢(qián)規(guī)模及影響分析[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)與管理;2008年10期

，

本文編號(hào)：1579161