本文選題：短期國(guó)際資本　切入點(diǎn)：匯率　出處：《財(cái)貿(mào)經(jīng)濟(jì)》2010年05期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：本文通過(guò)理論分析探討了短期國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)、匯率及資產(chǎn)價(jià)格之間的相互關(guān)系,采用VAR模型實(shí)證分析了2005年匯改以來(lái)我國(guó)短期國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)、匯率、股價(jià)和房?jī)r(jià)之間的動(dòng)態(tài)關(guān)系。實(shí)證結(jié)果表明:短期國(guó)際資本流入會(huì)導(dǎo)致人民幣匯率升值和市場(chǎng)對(duì)人民幣升值預(yù)期,還會(huì)導(dǎo)致股價(jià)和房?jī)r(jià)上漲;而人民幣升值、升值預(yù)期以及股價(jià)上漲都會(huì)造成短期國(guó)際資本流入;股價(jià)上漲會(huì)導(dǎo)致房?jī)r(jià)上漲;房?jī)r(jià)的上漲會(huì)導(dǎo)致資本流出,股價(jià)下跌。為了更好地應(yīng)對(duì)國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)的沖擊,我國(guó)必須完善國(guó)內(nèi)金融體系和經(jīng)濟(jì)體系;在制定貨幣政策時(shí),既要考慮國(guó)外貨幣政策的溢出效應(yīng),又要顧及國(guó)內(nèi)貨幣政策的獨(dú)立性。
[Abstract]:This paper discusses the relationship among short-term international capital flows, exchange rates and asset prices through theoretical analysis, and uses VAR model to empirically analyze the short-term international capital flows and exchange rates in China since the exchange rate reform in 2005. The dynamic relationship between stock prices and house prices. The empirical results show that short-term international capital inflows will lead to the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate and the expectation of appreciation of the RMB, as well as the rise of stock prices and house prices; while the appreciation of the RMB will lead to the appreciation of the RMB. Both rising expectations and rising share prices will result in short-term international capital inflows; rising share prices will lead to higher house prices; rising house prices will lead to capital outflows, and share prices will fall. In order to better cope with the impact of international capital flows, Our country must perfect the domestic financial system and economic system, when making monetary policy, we should not only consider the spillover effect of foreign monetary policy, but also take into account the independence of domestic monetary policy.
【作者單位】： 廈門大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院;廈門大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院金融系;
【基金】：國(guó)家社科基金項(xiàng)目“中國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備風(fēng)險(xiǎn)測(cè)度及管理研究”(項(xiàng)目批準(zhǔn)號(hào):07BJY157)的階段性研究成果
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6;F224

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