本文關鍵詞： 盈利水平 現(xiàn)金股利支付水平 上市公司　出處：《北京交通大學》2012年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：摘要：股利政策作為公司財務決策之一,一直是理論界與實務界關注的焦點。由于股利政策與股東的自身利益緊密相關,股東非常關注公司的股利政策,尤其是現(xiàn)金股利,更是關系到股東回報的實質性問題。一直以來社會公眾認為上市公司盈利但不分紅,為此證監(jiān)會還發(fā)布新政強調要重視分紅,本文就是針對這一現(xiàn)象運用實際數(shù)據(jù),試圖找出我國上市公司盈利性與現(xiàn)金股利支付水平的關系,判斷高盈利低分紅的現(xiàn)象是否是普遍現(xiàn)象,也可以印證證監(jiān)會新政的合理性。此外,如果盈利性與分紅有一定額關系,投資者也可以根據(jù)直觀的業(yè)績指標來預測企業(yè)的現(xiàn)金股利,指導自身的理性投資。 本文的主體部分主要包括兩個,一部分是理論分析,一部分是實證分析。在理論分析部分,整理歸納了國內外股利政策理論、我國現(xiàn)有股利政策以及影響股利政策分配的因素,其中就盈利性因素進行了展開說明。之后分析了我國上市公司現(xiàn)在的分紅水平,與國外成熟資本市場分別就分紅占比、分紅比率和股息率橫向對比,找出國內外分紅特征以及差距,分析原因。最后根據(jù)證監(jiān)會2011年木的分紅新政,分析新政發(fā)布原因,觀察上市公司的響應情況,未來股利支付水平的發(fā)展趨勢。在實證研究部分,首先選取樣本空間、對樣本特征進行分析,提出假設條件,設定變量并對變量特征進行分析：然后建立模型,對模型進行分年度回歸分析,分析回歸結果并進行有關指標的顯著性檢驗。 最后得到的結論是分配現(xiàn)金股利的上市公司的業(yè)績總體上要優(yōu)于未分配現(xiàn)金股利的上市公司,業(yè)績好的分配股利可能性更大,但這并不表明不分現(xiàn)金股利、的公司業(yè)績一定不好。在具體分析業(yè)績對股利的影響關系時,發(fā)現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金股利支付水平與盈利水平的關系并不呈完全的正相關關系,除了每股收益、凈資產(chǎn)收益率、流動比率與每股現(xiàn)金股利明顯正相關外,其余指標并不能表明業(yè)績越好,分配股利越多,這可能是由于仍存在影響股市健康發(fā)展的不利現(xiàn)象,有部分公司連續(xù)數(shù)年不分股利,也有部分公司由于融資等需要超能力分配股利,可能導致了現(xiàn)金股利與盈利性的關系并不穩(wěn)定。影響現(xiàn)金股利支付的還有盈利性以外的因素,比如股權結構,未來融資需要等。由實證結果我們可以看到,其實我國上市公司的分紅總體上與盈利水平相關聯(lián),并不是之前人們一直認為的公司有大量的盈利但不分紅,證監(jiān)會的分紅新政也就是在強化一下公司的分紅機制,并沒有對分紅有強制性的要求。投資者仍可以通過業(yè)績指標來判斷企業(yè)現(xiàn)金支付水平
[Abstract]:Abstract: as one of the corporate financial decisions, dividend policy has always been the focus of attention in the theoretical and practical circles. As dividend policy is closely related to shareholders' own interests, shareholders pay close attention to the company's dividend policy, especially the cash dividend. It has always been considered by the public that listed companies are profitable but not dividends. For this reason, the Securities Regulatory Commission has also issued a new policy to emphasize the importance of dividends. This article is aimed at this phenomenon by using actual data. This paper tries to find out the relationship between profitability and cash dividend payment level of listed companies in China, and to judge whether the phenomenon of high profit and low dividend is a common phenomenon, which can also confirm the rationality of the new policy of CSRC. In addition, If there is a fixed relationship between profitability and dividends, investors can also predict the cash dividend of an enterprise according to intuitive performance indicators and guide their rational investment. The main body of this paper consists of two parts, one is theoretical analysis, the other is empirical analysis. The present dividend policy and the factors affecting the distribution of dividend policy in China, including the profit-making factor, are explained, and then the current dividend level of listed companies in our country is analyzed, which is compared with the foreign mature capital market. Comparing dividend ratio with dividend rate horizontally, find out the characteristics and gap between domestic and foreign dividend distribution, analyze the reasons. Finally, according to the new policy of the Securities Regulatory Commission on 2011, analyze the reasons for the release of the new policy, observe the response of listed companies. In the part of empirical research, firstly, the sample space is selected to analyze the sample characteristics, the hypothesis conditions are put forward, the variables are set up and the characteristics of the variables are analyzed, and then the model is established. Annual regression analysis was carried out to analyze the regression results and to test the significance of relevant indicators. Finally, the conclusion is that the performance of listed companies that distribute cash dividends is generally better than that of listed companies with undistributed cash dividends, and those with good performance are more likely to distribute dividends, but this does not mean that they are not divided into cash dividends. When analyzing the effect of performance on dividend, we find that the relationship between cash dividend payment level and profit level is not completely positive, except earnings per share, net asset return, Except that the current ratio is positively correlated with the cash dividend per share, the remaining indicators do not indicate that the better the performance, the more dividends are distributed. This may be due to the fact that there is still an adverse phenomenon affecting the healthy development of the stock market, and some companies do not divide dividends for several years in a row. Some companies may have unstable relationship between cash dividends and profitability because of the need to allocate dividends in excess of their ability to allocate dividends, such as financing. There are also factors other than profitability, such as equity structure, that affect the payment of cash dividends. From the empirical results, we can see that, in fact, the dividends of listed companies in our country are generally related to the level of profits. It is not the fact that people always thought that companies had a lot of profits but no dividends. The new bonus policy of CSRC is also strengthening the company's dividend mechanism, and there is no mandatory requirement for dividends. Investors can still judge the level of cash payment by performance indicators
【學位授予單位】：北京交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F275;F832.51;F224

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