本文關(guān)鍵詞： 人民幣加權(quán)匯率 中國-東盟貿(mào)易收支 引力模型 結(jié)構(gòu)協(xié)整　出處：《中南大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著2010年中國-東盟自由貿(mào)易區(qū)的建立,中國-東盟經(jīng)濟往來日益密切。然而,中國從東盟的進口增長高于對東盟的出口增長,東盟成為中國對外貿(mào)易逆差的主要來源地區(qū)之一,雙邊貿(mào)易發(fā)展不平衡。而匯率是調(diào)節(jié)一國貿(mào)易平衡的重要變量。因此,本文試圖從理論和實證兩個方面分析人民幣匯率變動對中國-東盟雙邊貿(mào)易收支的影響。 在對匯率影響貿(mào)易收支的相關(guān)理論基礎(chǔ)進行回顧并對人民幣匯率走勢及中國-東盟貿(mào)易現(xiàn)狀進行分析后,本文借鑒IMF計算實際有效匯率指數(shù)的方法測算出人民幣兌東盟國家貨幣的實際有效匯率指數(shù),簡稱人民幣加權(quán)匯率。以此作為人民幣匯率指標(biāo)并建立引力模型,從匯率水平和匯率波動兩個方面分析人民幣加權(quán)匯率對中國-東盟貿(mào)易收支的影響。從整體性分析來看,長期均衡關(guān)系和短期動態(tài)調(diào)整關(guān)系均成立。具體來說,協(xié)整分析表明中國-東盟貿(mào)易收支對人民幣加權(quán)匯率水平的彈性為-3.45,對人民幣加權(quán)匯率波動的彈性為0.7；誤差修正模型分析表明人民幣加權(quán)匯率水平和波動對雙方貿(mào)易收支的短期影響均小于其長期均衡影響；脈沖響應(yīng)分析發(fā)現(xiàn)人民幣加權(quán)匯率對雙邊貿(mào)易收支影響的J曲線效應(yīng)不明顯。從結(jié)構(gòu)協(xié)整分析來看,匯率改革因素改變了人民幣加權(quán)匯率與中國-東盟貿(mào)易收支的協(xié)整參數(shù)。 基于上述分析結(jié)果,本文從匯率視角和非匯率視角兩個方面對中國-東盟貿(mào)易的平衡發(fā)展提出相關(guān)政策建議。
[Abstract]:With the establishment of the China-ASEAN Free Trade area in 2010, China-ASEAN economic ties have become increasingly close. However, China's imports from ASEAN have increased more than its exports to ASEAN. ASEAN has become one of the main sources of China's foreign trade deficit, and bilateral trade development is unbalanced, and the exchange rate is an important variable to adjust a country's trade balance. This paper attempts to analyze the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on bilateral trade balance between China and ASEAN from both theoretical and empirical aspects. After reviewing the theoretical basis of the influence of exchange rate on trade balance and analyzing the trend of RMB exchange rate and the current situation of China-ASEAN trade. This paper calculates the real effective exchange rate index of RMB against the currencies of ASEAN countries by using the method of IMF to calculate the real effective exchange rate index. The weighted exchange rate of RMB is referred to as the index of RMB exchange rate and the gravitational model is established. This paper analyzes the impact of RMB weighted exchange rate on China-ASEAN trade balance from two aspects of exchange rate level and exchange rate fluctuation. Co-integration analysis shows that the elasticity of China-ASEAN trade balance to RMB weighted exchange rate is -3.45, and to RMB weighted exchange rate fluctuation is 0.7; The error correction model analysis shows that the short-term influence of RMB weighted exchange rate level and fluctuation on both sides' trade balance is smaller than its long-term equilibrium effect. Impulse response analysis shows that the J curve effect of RMB weighted exchange rate on bilateral trade balance is not obvious. The factors of exchange rate reform change the cointegration parameter between RMB weighted exchange rate and China-ASEAN trade balance. Based on the above results, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions on the balanced development of China-ASEAN trade from the perspective of exchange rate and non-exchange rate.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.6;F752.7

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 馬丹,許少強;匯率變動對東亞四國出口影響的實證分析[J];財貿(mào)經(jīng)濟;2005年02期

2 李紅;方冬莉;;2010～2011年中國—東盟貨物貿(mào)易數(shù)量分析與預(yù)測——年度分析系列報告之八[J];東南亞縱橫;2011年03期

3 劉偉;朱軍林;;人民幣匯率波動與中美貿(mào)易失衡的關(guān)系研究[J];南方金融;2007年01期

4 王勝;陳繼勇;吳宏;;中美貿(mào)易順差與人民幣匯率關(guān)系的實證分析[J];國際貿(mào)易問題;2007年05期

5 劉楠;胡小娟;;1999～2007年歐盟對華貿(mào)易逆差的實證分析[J];國際經(jīng)貿(mào)探索;2008年10期

6 劉偉;胡兵;李傳昭;;財政赤字、實際有效匯率與貿(mào)易收支——基于中國數(shù)據(jù)的實證檢驗[J];管理世界;2007年04期

7 楊羽;黃萬陽;;人民幣匯率與中國-東盟經(jīng)濟體貿(mào)易的實證研究[J];區(qū)域金融研究;2011年03期

8 章宇娟;吳玲艷;;人民幣實際有效匯率對我國對外貿(mào)易的影響分析[J];海南金融;2009年01期

9 邱立成;王自鋒;;東南亞區(qū)域貿(mào)易的匯率波動效應(yīng)研究——基于面板數(shù)據(jù)的實證分析[J];世界經(jīng)濟研究;2006年01期

10 陳俐;;中國出口東盟貿(mào)易流量:基于貿(mào)易引力模型的實證研究[J];經(jīng)濟論壇;2011年11期

，

本文編號：1489163