本文關(guān)鍵詞： 人民幣加權(quán)匯率 中國(guó)-東盟貿(mào)易收支 引力模型 結(jié)構(gòu)協(xié)整　出處：《中南大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著2010年中國(guó)-東盟自由貿(mào)易區(qū)的建立,中國(guó)-東盟經(jīng)濟(jì)往來(lái)日益密切。然而,中國(guó)從東盟的進(jìn)口增長(zhǎng)高于對(duì)東盟的出口增長(zhǎng),東盟成為中國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易逆差的主要來(lái)源地區(qū)之一,雙邊貿(mào)易發(fā)展不平衡。而匯率是調(diào)節(jié)一國(guó)貿(mào)易平衡的重要變量。因此,本文試圖從理論和實(shí)證兩個(gè)方面分析人民幣匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)中國(guó)-東盟雙邊貿(mào)易收支的影響。 在對(duì)匯率影響貿(mào)易收支的相關(guān)理論基礎(chǔ)進(jìn)行回顧并對(duì)人民幣匯率走勢(shì)及中國(guó)-東盟貿(mào)易現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行分析后,本文借鑒IMF計(jì)算實(shí)際有效匯率指數(shù)的方法測(cè)算出人民幣兌東盟國(guó)家貨幣的實(shí)際有效匯率指數(shù),簡(jiǎn)稱(chēng)人民幣加權(quán)匯率。以此作為人民幣匯率指標(biāo)并建立引力模型,從匯率水平和匯率波動(dòng)兩個(gè)方面分析人民幣加權(quán)匯率對(duì)中國(guó)-東盟貿(mào)易收支的影響。從整體性分析來(lái)看,長(zhǎng)期均衡關(guān)系和短期動(dòng)態(tài)調(diào)整關(guān)系均成立。具體來(lái)說(shuō),協(xié)整分析表明中國(guó)-東盟貿(mào)易收支對(duì)人民幣加權(quán)匯率水平的彈性為-3.45,對(duì)人民幣加權(quán)匯率波動(dòng)的彈性為0.7；誤差修正模型分析表明人民幣加權(quán)匯率水平和波動(dòng)對(duì)雙方貿(mào)易收支的短期影響均小于其長(zhǎng)期均衡影響；脈沖響應(yīng)分析發(fā)現(xiàn)人民幣加權(quán)匯率對(duì)雙邊貿(mào)易收支影響的J曲線(xiàn)效應(yīng)不明顯。從結(jié)構(gòu)協(xié)整分析來(lái)看,匯率改革因素改變了人民幣加權(quán)匯率與中國(guó)-東盟貿(mào)易收支的協(xié)整參數(shù)。 基于上述分析結(jié)果,本文從匯率視角和非匯率視角兩個(gè)方面對(duì)中國(guó)-東盟貿(mào)易的平衡發(fā)展提出相關(guān)政策建議。
[Abstract]:With the establishment of the China-ASEAN Free Trade area in 2010, China-ASEAN economic ties have become increasingly close. However, China's imports from ASEAN have increased more than its exports to ASEAN. ASEAN has become one of the main sources of China's foreign trade deficit, and bilateral trade development is unbalanced, and the exchange rate is an important variable to adjust a country's trade balance. This paper attempts to analyze the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on bilateral trade balance between China and ASEAN from both theoretical and empirical aspects. After reviewing the theoretical basis of the influence of exchange rate on trade balance and analyzing the trend of RMB exchange rate and the current situation of China-ASEAN trade. This paper calculates the real effective exchange rate index of RMB against the currencies of ASEAN countries by using the method of IMF to calculate the real effective exchange rate index. The weighted exchange rate of RMB is referred to as the index of RMB exchange rate and the gravitational model is established. This paper analyzes the impact of RMB weighted exchange rate on China-ASEAN trade balance from two aspects of exchange rate level and exchange rate fluctuation. Co-integration analysis shows that the elasticity of China-ASEAN trade balance to RMB weighted exchange rate is -3.45, and to RMB weighted exchange rate fluctuation is 0.7; The error correction model analysis shows that the short-term influence of RMB weighted exchange rate level and fluctuation on both sides' trade balance is smaller than its long-term equilibrium effect. Impulse response analysis shows that the J curve effect of RMB weighted exchange rate on bilateral trade balance is not obvious. The factors of exchange rate reform change the cointegration parameter between RMB weighted exchange rate and China-ASEAN trade balance. Based on the above results, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions on the balanced development of China-ASEAN trade from the perspective of exchange rate and non-exchange rate.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F832.6;F752.7

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