本文關(guān)鍵詞： 貨幣政策 有效性 通貨膨脹 貨幣供應(yīng)量　出處：《西北師范大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：通貨膨脹是一個(gè)復(fù)雜的綜合的經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)象，它是衡量宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)是否健康平穩(wěn)運(yùn)行的重要指標(biāo)，它可以改變各種商品的相對(duì)價(jià)格，從消費(fèi)產(chǎn)出和資源的有效配置等方面對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生影響 貨幣政策的有效性，就是指在特定的經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境中，通過對(duì)不同貨幣政策工具的運(yùn)用，能否實(shí)現(xiàn)其預(yù)定的調(diào)控目標(biāo) 貨幣政策是控制通貨膨脹的重要手段之一，貨幣政策的效果具有階段性特征在國(guó)內(nèi)外相關(guān)研究的基礎(chǔ)上，基于后凱恩斯主義貨幣理論，運(yùn)用SVAR模型研究不同貨幣政策的數(shù)量效果和規(guī)律性及其在治理我國(guó)通貨膨脹中所發(fā)揮的作用，以期為以后通貨膨張的治理以及提高貨幣政策的有效性方面提供科學(xué)的參考依據(jù)，以便有效地控制和防范通貨膨脹 論文介紹了通貨膨脹及貨幣政策的相關(guān)理論，分析了1980年以來通貨膨脹的特點(diǎn)及原因，采用協(xié)整理論及結(jié)構(gòu)向量自回歸(SVAR)等工具建立符合我國(guó)實(shí)際情況的貨幣政策對(duì)通貨膨脹有效性的模型，同時(shí)采用時(shí)間序列的穩(wěn)定性檢驗(yàn)方差分解以及脈沖響應(yīng)分析等方法對(duì)我國(guó)1980年以來不同時(shí)間段的貨幣政策有效性進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析，結(jié)論為：一年期貸款基準(zhǔn)利率貨幣供應(yīng)量名義匯率和通貨膨脹率取對(duì)數(shù)后一階差分平穩(wěn)，并且存在長(zhǎng)期協(xié)整關(guān)系；通過建立SVAR模型，從當(dāng)期來看，通貨膨脹都受自身沖擊的影響較大，在第3季度達(dá)到峰值，，之后響應(yīng)緩慢減小，從長(zhǎng)期來看有趨于平穩(wěn)的趨勢(shì)說明無論是出現(xiàn)通貨膨脹還是通貨緊縮的外生沖擊,都會(huì)導(dǎo)致通貨膨脹或者通貨緊縮的持續(xù)性；貨幣供應(yīng)量的增加在短期和長(zhǎng)期對(duì)通貨膨脹率水平的上升均有一定的促進(jìn)作用；利率的沖擊對(duì)通貨膨脹的影響，不能很快反映到物價(jià)水平上，大約到第四季度表現(xiàn)得較明顯；匯率的沖擊對(duì)通貨膨脹率的影響具有一定的時(shí)滯效應(yīng)，要到了第五季度之后才開始緩慢地抑制通貨膨脹 論文對(duì)治理通貨膨脹中如何提高貨幣政策有效性提出了相關(guān)的建議，要推進(jìn)利率市場(chǎng)化推進(jìn)存款準(zhǔn)備金率制度改革完善再貼現(xiàn)政策等
[Abstract]:Inflation is a complex and comprehensive economic phenomenon, it is an important indicator to measure the health and stability of macroeconomic, it can change the relative prices of various commodities. Impact on the macro economy in terms of consumption output and effective allocation of resources The effectiveness of monetary policy refers to whether, in a specific economic environment, the use of different monetary policy tools can achieve its predetermined regulatory objectives. Monetary policy is one of the important means to control inflation. The effect of monetary policy has stage characteristics based on post-Keynesian monetary theory on the basis of relevant studies at home and abroad. This paper applies SVAR model to study the quantitative effect and regularity of different monetary policies and their role in controlling inflation in China. The aim is to provide a scientific reference for the control of inflation and the improvement of the effectiveness of monetary policy, so as to effectively control and prevent inflation. This paper introduces the theory of inflation and monetary policy, and analyzes the characteristics and causes of inflation since 1980. Cointegration theory and structural vector autoregressive (SVARA) are used to establish a model of the effectiveness of monetary policy to inflation in accordance with the actual situation in China. At the same time, the time series stability test variance decomposition and impulse response analysis are used to analyze the effectiveness of monetary policy in different periods since 1980. The conclusions are as follows: the nominal exchange rate and inflation rate of the one-year benchmark interest rate of money supply are stable and stable after logarithmic, and there is a long-term cointegration relationship; Through the establishment of SVAR model, from the current point of view, inflation is greatly affected by the impact of their own impact, in the third quarter reached a peak, and then the response slowly decreased. In the long run, there is a tendency to be stable, which shows that the exogenous impact of inflation or deflation will lead to inflation or the persistence of deflation. The increase of money supply can promote the inflation rate in both the short and long term. The impact of interest rate shocks on inflation cannot be quickly reflected in the price level, about 4th quarter performance is more obvious; The impact of exchange rate shocks on inflation has a certain delay effect, until after the 5th quarter began to slow down inflation This paper puts forward some relevant suggestions on how to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy in controlling inflation. It is necessary to push forward the marketization of interest rate and the reform of reserve ratio system, and improve the rediscount policy, and so on.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西北師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F224;F822.5

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