本文關(guān)鍵詞： 人民幣有效匯率 勞動(dòng)力供給 加工貿(mào)易　出處：《復(fù)旦大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：自1978年改革開(kāi)放以來(lái),30多年間中國(guó)取得了舉世矚目的成就,讓整個(gè)社會(huì)包括每一個(gè)人都發(fā)生了翻天覆地的變化,很多人都說(shuō)是一個(gè)奇跡。我們從這個(gè)奇跡的背后去探尋中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)成功的主要原因不難發(fā)現(xiàn),中國(guó)的成功起源于中國(guó)之外的世界潮流,中國(guó)搭上了全球化的便車。而出口的快速增長(zhǎng)特別是加工貿(mào)易出口的快速增長(zhǎng)是中國(guó)搭上全球化便車的具體表現(xiàn)形式。但近一段時(shí)間,中國(guó)的加工貿(mào)易出口似乎遇到了一些阻力和瓶頸。統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)顯示,我國(guó)加工貿(mào)易進(jìn)出口總額占我國(guó)進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易總額的比例呈現(xiàn)先上升然后回落的趨勢(shì),從20世紀(jì)80年代初的5.9%上升到1998年的53.4%達(dá)到最高點(diǎn),然后逐漸回落,到2010年回落到38.95%。在中國(guó)年出口額登頂世界的時(shí)候,我們現(xiàn)在需要仔細(xì)研究一下,是那些因素導(dǎo)致中國(guó)的加工貿(mào)易出口的增長(zhǎng)如此驚人,中國(guó)下一步該如何調(diào)整,才能使中國(guó)的加工貿(mào)易出口繼續(xù)保持穩(wěn)步發(fā)展。 本文將從微觀層面著手研究分析,對(duì)人民幣有效匯率,勞動(dòng)力供給(人口資源稟賦)等因素對(duì)中國(guó)的加工貿(mào)易出口的影響進(jìn)行分析。收集了改革開(kāi)放以來(lái)我國(guó)加工貿(mào)易出口額、世界銀行統(tǒng)計(jì)的人民幣有效匯率、在外商投資企業(yè)就業(yè)的人數(shù)的數(shù)據(jù)采用計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的回歸分析方法通過(guò)EVIEW5.0軟件進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析人民幣有效匯率長(zhǎng)期波動(dòng)及我國(guó)勞動(dòng)力供給狀況對(duì)我國(guó)加工貿(mào)易出口總額的影響以及對(duì)加工貿(mào)易占我國(guó)總的外貿(mào)金額比例的影響。本文的實(shí)證研究不但對(duì)我們?nèi)绾螠?zhǔn)確把握我國(guó)目前人民幣匯率問(wèn)題有著極大的幫助,而且對(duì)我們正確認(rèn)識(shí)我國(guó)目前勞動(dòng)力供給的狀況有著深刻的意義,為我國(guó)調(diào)整相關(guān)政策提供借鑒。對(duì)我們?nèi)ヌ綄と绾斡行ПＵ霞庸べQ(mào)易的健康發(fā)展的道路提供了決策的參考,史重要的是有助于為我國(guó)加工貿(mào)易轉(zhuǎn)型升級(jí)指明方向,從而讓加工貿(mào)易進(jìn)一步為中國(guó)社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展保駕護(hù)航。 由于人民幣匯率的不斷升值和我國(guó)勞動(dòng)力供給的日益趨緊,只有大力提高,增加對(duì)勞動(dòng)力的教育和培訓(xùn)才能解決人民幣匯率升值和勞動(dòng)力供給數(shù)量上的趨緊對(duì)加工貿(mào)易出口帶來(lái)的負(fù)面影響�？萍紕�(chuàng)新和技術(shù)升級(jí)是提高勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率的有效途徑,這也可以從中國(guó)政府的中長(zhǎng)期的科學(xué)與技術(shù)發(fā)展規(guī)劃中看到,科學(xué)和技術(shù)已經(jīng)成為中國(guó)保持可持續(xù)穩(wěn)定的發(fā)展和向創(chuàng)新型國(guó)家轉(zhuǎn)型的重要推動(dòng)力。所以正確政策引導(dǎo)和政策支持是當(dāng)務(wù)之急,例如可以給予勞動(dòng)力密集型出口導(dǎo)向型的加工貿(mào)易小型企業(yè)科研投入的稅收優(yōu)惠和進(jìn)口國(guó)外先進(jìn)技術(shù)和設(shè)備的外匯低息貸款。加大對(duì)小型的出口導(dǎo)向型企業(yè)的科研投入和政策扶持,可以大大提高出口企業(yè)的勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率,幫助出口企業(yè)(特別是加工貿(mào)易型企業(yè))轉(zhuǎn)型升級(jí),從而最終勞動(dòng)力緊張和人民幣升值的壓力,使我國(guó)出口保持可持續(xù)發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:Since 1978, since the reform and opening up, China has made remarkable achievements in more than 30 years, so that the whole society, including everyone, has undergone earth-shaking changes. Many people say it is a miracle. It is not difficult to find the main reasons behind this miracle for China's economic success, China's success originates from the world trend outside China. China has taken a free ride to globalization, and the rapid growth of exports, especially in processing trade, is a concrete manifestation of China's free ride to globalization. But it has been for some time now. China's export of processing trade seems to have encountered some obstacles and bottlenecks. Statistics show that the proportion of total import and export of processing trade to China's total import and export trade shows a trend of rising first and then falling back. It peaked at 53.4% in 1998 from 5.9% in early 1980s and then gradually fell back. By 2010, it had fallen back to 38.95.When China's annual exports reached the top of the world, we now need to look closely at the factors that contributed to the phenomenal growth in China's export of processing trade. How to adjust China's next step, so that China's export of processing trade to continue to maintain steady development. This paper will study and analyze the effective exchange rate of RMB from the micro level. This paper analyzes the influence of labor supply (population resource endowment) and other factors on China's export of processing trade. The effective exchange rate of RMB has been collected from China's export of processing trade since the reform and opening up and the World Bank. The data of the number of people employed in Foreign-funded Enterprises using the regression Analysis method of econometrics the empirical analysis of the long-term fluctuation of the effective exchange rate of RMB and the labor supply situation of our country through EVIEW5.0 software. The influence of the total export amount of processing trade and the proportion of processing trade to the total foreign trade amount of our country. The empirical study in this paper is not only helpful to us how to accurately grasp the RMB exchange rate problem at present in China, but also to the proportion of processing trade to the total foreign trade amount of China. . And for us to correctly understand the current situation of labor supply in China has a profound significance. For our country to adjust the relevant policies to provide reference for us to explore how to effectively ensure the healthy development of processing trade to provide a reference for decision-making. What is important is to point out the direction for the transformation and upgrading of China's processing trade, so that the processing trade can further protect China's social and economic development. Due to the continuous appreciation of the RMB exchange rate and the tightening of labor supply in China, it can only be greatly improved. Only by increasing the education and training of the labor force can we solve the negative impact on the export of processing trade caused by the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate and the tightening of the supply of labor. Scientific and technological innovation and technological upgrading are the effective ways to increase labor productivity. The way. This can also be seen in the long-term scientific and technological development plans of the Chinese Government. Science and technology have become an important driving force for China's sustainable and stable development and transition to an innovative country. Therefore, correct policy guidance and policy support are the top priority. For example, tax incentives that can be given to small enterprises in labor-intensive export-oriented processing trade and low-interest foreign exchange loans for importing advanced foreign technology and equipment. Research input and policy support. It can greatly increase the labor productivity of export enterprises, and help export enterprises (especially processing trade enterprises) to transform and upgrade, thus resulting in the tension of labor force and the pressure of RMB appreciation. To maintain sustainable development of China's exports.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6;F249.2;F752.62;F224

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