本文關(guān)鍵詞： 證券分析師 盈利預(yù)測(cè)準(zhǔn)確性 公司因素　出處：《華中科技大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：證券分析師(Securities Analyst)是指服務(wù)于機(jī)構(gòu)以及個(gè)人投資者，向其提供投資分析意見(jiàn)，并指導(dǎo)其投資行為的專業(yè)人士。由于證券市場(chǎng)的投資者受專業(yè)知識(shí)以及分析水平的限制，，無(wú)法對(duì)上市公司的信息進(jìn)行有針對(duì)性地搜集，并進(jìn)行全面地分析，證券分析師的出現(xiàn)填補(bǔ)了這一空白。證券分析師盈利預(yù)測(cè)在一定程度上為投資者進(jìn)行有效投資提供了指導(dǎo)作用。因此研究證券分析師盈利預(yù)測(cè)的準(zhǔn)確性及其影響因素對(duì)于提高證券市場(chǎng)效率有著非常重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文在總結(jié)國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者研究的基礎(chǔ)上，以2010-2011年被證券分析師關(guān)注的創(chuàng)業(yè)板上市公司為研究樣本，利用多元線性回歸模型，從公司基本特征、公司財(cái)務(wù)特征、公司治理結(jié)構(gòu)、公司信息披露狀況這幾個(gè)公司因素出發(fā)，研究公司因素對(duì)于分析師盈利預(yù)測(cè)準(zhǔn)確性的影響。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)： （1）將證券分析師盈利預(yù)測(cè)誤差分成“具有較高的可靠性”、“一定的準(zhǔn)確性”、“發(fā)生了重大的預(yù)測(cè)誤差”這三種狀態(tài)進(jìn)行研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，前兩種狀態(tài)的樣本量所占比重接近60%，表明證券分析師對(duì)于創(chuàng)業(yè)板上市公司盈利預(yù)測(cè)的準(zhǔn)確性相對(duì)較高。將證券分析師盈利預(yù)測(cè)誤差分成大于零和小于零的兩組進(jìn)行研究，結(jié)果表明盈利預(yù)測(cè)誤差大于零的樣本所占比重較高，說(shuō)明證券分析師盈利預(yù)測(cè)呈樂(lè)觀的正向偏差。 （2）本文將公司因素分為公司基本特征、公司財(cái)務(wù)特征、公司治理結(jié)構(gòu)以及信息披露質(zhì)量四個(gè)方面進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究，研究結(jié)果表明，上市公司的多元化程度、無(wú)形資產(chǎn)占比與盈利預(yù)測(cè)準(zhǔn)確性負(fù)相關(guān)；上市公司營(yíng)利的可預(yù)測(cè)性、發(fā)展能力、信息披露質(zhì)量與盈利預(yù)測(cè)準(zhǔn)確性正相關(guān)。 （3）本文將盈利預(yù)測(cè)誤差分為樂(lè)觀的正向偏差與悲觀的負(fù)向偏差兩組進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究，研究結(jié)果表明，上市公司的多元化程度、無(wú)形資產(chǎn)占比、營(yíng)利的可預(yù)測(cè)性、發(fā)展能力、信息披露質(zhì)量這幾個(gè)因素影響證券分析師預(yù)測(cè)的正向偏差；無(wú)形資產(chǎn)占比、盈余波動(dòng)性、凈利潤(rùn)增長(zhǎng)率、機(jī)構(gòu)持股比例影響證券分析師預(yù)測(cè)的負(fù)向偏差。
[Abstract]:Securities analyst refers to serving both institutional and individual investors and providing them with investment analysis advice. Because the investors in the securities market are restricted by their professional knowledge and analysis level, they can not collect the information of listed companies in a targeted way and make a comprehensive analysis. The emergence of securities analysts fills this gap. To a certain extent, the earnings forecast of securities analysts provides guidance for investors to invest effectively. Therefore, the accuracy and impact of earnings forecasts of securities analysts are studied. Factors to improve the efficiency of the securities market has a very important practical significance. On the basis of summarizing the domestic and foreign scholars' research, this paper takes the listed companies listed on the gem, which has been concerned by the securities analysts in 2010-2011, as the research sample and uses the multiple linear regression model to analyze the basic characteristics of the companies. Based on corporate financial characteristics, corporate governance structure and corporate information disclosure, this paper studies the impact of corporate factors on the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecasts. 1) dividing the profit forecast error of securities analyst into three kinds of states: "having high reliability", "certain accuracy" and "significant prediction error". The sample size of the first two states is close to 60%. It shows that the accuracy of earnings forecast of gem listed companies is relatively high. The error of earnings forecast of securities analysts is divided into two groups: greater than zero and less than zero. The results show that the proportion of the sample whose error of earnings forecast is greater than zero is higher, which indicates that the positive deviation of earnings forecast of securities analysts is optimistic. In this paper, the company factors are divided into four aspects: corporate basic characteristics, corporate financial characteristics, corporate governance structure and the quality of information disclosure. The research results show that the degree of diversification of listed companies. The proportion of intangible assets is negatively correlated with the accuracy of earnings forecast; The predictability of profit, the ability of development and the quality of information disclosure are positively related to the accuracy of profit prediction. This paper divides the profit forecast error into two groups: optimistic positive deviation and pessimistic negative deviation. The results show that the degree of diversification of listed companies, the proportion of intangible assets. The predictability of profit, the ability of development and the quality of information disclosure affect the positive deviation of the forecast of securities analysts; The share of intangible assets, earnings volatility, net profit growth and institutional shareholdings affect the negative bias of equity analysts' forecasts.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F832.51

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 李文貴;;財(cái)務(wù)分析師盈余預(yù)測(cè)特性研究——中國(guó)A股市場(chǎng)的實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)[J];財(cái)會(huì)通訊(學(xué)術(shù)版);2007年09期

2 尚福林;;我國(guó)創(chuàng)業(yè)板市場(chǎng)正式啟航[J];中國(guó)科技投資;2009年12期

3 姜國(guó)華;關(guān)于證券分析師對(duì)中國(guó)上市公司會(huì)計(jì)收益預(yù)測(cè)的實(shí)證研究[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)科學(xué);2004年06期

4 胡奕明,林文雄;信息關(guān)注深度、分析能力與分析質(zhì)量——對(duì)我國(guó)證券分析師的調(diào)查分析[J];金融研究;2005年02期

5 方軍雄;;我國(guó)上市公司信息披露透明度與證券分析師預(yù)測(cè)[J];金融研究;2007年06期

6 胡奕明,饒艷超,陳月根,李鵬程;證券分析師的信息解讀能力調(diào)查[J];會(huì)計(jì)研究;2003年11期

7 吳東輝;薛祖云;;財(cái)務(wù)分析師盈利預(yù)測(cè)的投資價(jià)值:來(lái)自深滬A股市場(chǎng)的證據(jù)[J];會(huì)計(jì)研究;2005年08期

8 單U哸\;;分析師短期和長(zhǎng)期財(cái)測(cè)特性研究綜述[J];會(huì)計(jì)研究;2005年11期

9 岳衡;林小馳;;證券分析師VS統(tǒng)計(jì)模型:證券分析師盈余預(yù)測(cè)的相對(duì)準(zhǔn)確性及其決定因素[J];會(huì)計(jì)研究;2008年08期

10 徐宗宇;對(duì)盈利預(yù)測(cè)可靠性影響因素的分析研究[J];會(huì)計(jì)研究;1998年01期

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 公言磊;財(cái)務(wù)分析師盈余預(yù)測(cè)樂(lè)觀傾向成因研究[D];東北財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué);2010年

本文編號(hào)：1456176