本文關(guān)鍵詞：金融不穩(wěn)定假說的危機解釋力與隨機微觀模型　出處：《暨南大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 金融不穩(wěn)定假說 金融危機 隨機微觀逼近模型

【摘要】：本論文以分析金融危機爆發(fā)原因為導(dǎo)向，以海曼·明斯基的金融不穩(wěn)定假說為理論基礎(chǔ)，主要進行了以下研究工作： 首先，在簡述金融不穩(wěn)定假說相關(guān)思想來源及其發(fā)展基礎(chǔ)上，比較詳細地分析了金融不穩(wěn)定假說解釋幾次典型金融危機的能力及其局限性； 其次，利用企業(yè)異質(zhì)資本結(jié)構(gòu)的微觀基礎(chǔ)模型，建立微觀金融變量和總體經(jīng)濟績效之間的聯(lián)系，，說明了金融危機產(chǎn)生的原因，并探討了金融部門沖擊影響實體經(jīng)濟的傳導(dǎo)機制。 本文根據(jù)海曼·明斯基的基于融資關(guān)系企業(yè)分類法，將企業(yè)分為對沖型、投機型和龐氏型三類，并通過融資關(guān)系將企業(yè)和產(chǎn)品市場與投資者和資本市場聯(lián)系起來，建立隨機動態(tài)方程對企業(yè)狀態(tài)和資本的演化過程進行了隨機動態(tài)分析，從金融系統(tǒng)內(nèi)部和隨機微觀角度分析了金融危機發(fā)生的根本原因，并揭示了金融部門沖擊影響實體經(jīng)濟的傳導(dǎo)機制。 理論模型和分析結(jié)果顯示：在經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)中，不同投資者對利潤的期望會導(dǎo)致企業(yè)在對沖型、投機型和龐氏型三種不同的融資狀態(tài)中相互轉(zhuǎn)換，而這三種不同類型的企業(yè)所占比重直接決定了金融體系穩(wěn)定與否。當(dāng)經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)中對沖型企業(yè)比重較大時，金融系統(tǒng)是比較穩(wěn)定的；當(dāng)投機型企業(yè)和龐氏型企業(yè)所占比重逐漸增加時，金融系統(tǒng)會越來越不穩(wěn)定，當(dāng)這種不穩(wěn)定性積累到一定程度時便會爆發(fā)金融危機。 最后，結(jié)合我國經(jīng)濟金融發(fā)展情況，提出了可能有效的金融系統(tǒng)穩(wěn)定政策和建議。
[Abstract]:This thesis is guided by the analysis of the causes of the financial crisis, and based on Heman Minsky's hypothesis of financial instability, the following research work has been carried out: Firstly, on the basis of brief introduction of the origin and development of financial instability hypothesis, this paper analyzes in detail the ability and limitation of financial instability hypothesis to explain several typical financial crises. Secondly, the relationship between micro-financial variables and overall economic performance is established by using the micro-basic model of enterprise heterogeneous capital structure, which explains the causes of the financial crisis. The transmission mechanism of the impact of financial sector impact on the real economy is also discussed. In this paper, according to Hyman Minsky's classification of firms based on financing relationships, firms are classified into three types: hedging, speculative and Ponzi. Through financing relationship, the enterprise and product market are connected with investors and capital market, and the stochastic dynamic equation is established to analyze the evolution process of enterprise state and capital. This paper analyzes the root causes of the financial crisis from the perspective of the internal and random microcosmic of the financial system, and reveals the transmission mechanism of the impact of the financial sector shock on the real economy. The theoretical model and analysis results show that: in the economic system, different investors' expectation of profit will lead to the transformation of enterprises in three different financing states: hedge, speculation and Ponzi. The proportion of these three different types of enterprises directly determines the stability of the financial system. When the proportion of hedge enterprises in the economic system is large, the financial system is relatively stable; When the proportion of speculative enterprises and Ponzi enterprises increases gradually, the financial system will become more and more unstable, and when the instability accumulates to a certain extent, the financial crisis will break out. Finally, according to the economic and financial development of our country, the paper puts forward some possible and effective policies and suggestions for the stability of the financial system.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：暨南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F830;F224

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