本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于多元GARCH模型的流動(dòng)性溢出效應(yīng)研究　出處：《浙江工商大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 金融危機(jī) 流動(dòng)性 溢出效應(yīng) VAR 多元GARCH

【摘要】：隨著全球經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化進(jìn)程加快,世界經(jīng)濟(jì)可謂風(fēng)起云涌變幻莫測(cè)。我國(guó)繼改革開(kāi)放之后,走出了一個(gè)不平凡的三十年,九十年代之后開(kāi)始走市場(chǎng)化道路,國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值更是以每年兩位數(shù)的發(fā)展速度高速增長(zhǎng),令世界各國(guó)嘆為觀止。然而在大跨步向前進(jìn)的過(guò)程中,道路是坎坷的,1998年的亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)、2008年美國(guó)次信貸危機(jī)所引爆的全球金融危機(jī),都深刻的對(duì)中國(guó)這個(gè)新興的經(jīng)濟(jì)體給予了極大的考驗(yàn)。與此同時(shí),尤其是08年金融危機(jī)之后,流動(dòng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)在各國(guó)之間的傳遞效應(yīng)暴露在中國(guó)及世界各國(guó)面前,在毫無(wú)防備情況下,流動(dòng)性的缺失使世界各國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)像多米諾骨牌一樣紛紛倒下。 在此背景基礎(chǔ)上,本文提出針對(duì)以中國(guó)、日本、美國(guó)和英國(guó)證券市場(chǎng)之間的流動(dòng)性溢出效應(yīng)為研究對(duì)象。我們分別考慮了流動(dòng)性度量指標(biāo)、樣本數(shù)據(jù)選取以及一定的模型選擇,從流動(dòng)性水平和流動(dòng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢出效應(yīng)兩個(gè)角度,來(lái)度量他們之間的流動(dòng)性生溢出效應(yīng)。流動(dòng)性水平溢出效應(yīng)的刻畫(huà),我們建立VAR向量自回歸模型,并在此基礎(chǔ)之上應(yīng)用格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)、脈沖響應(yīng)分析、方差分解分析了變量之間的溢出效應(yīng)。流動(dòng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢出效應(yīng)的刻畫(huà),我們從流動(dòng)性指標(biāo)二階矩的估計(jì)上,最終選擇多元GARCH模型中具有代表性的BEKK. DCC-GARCH.GO-GARCH三個(gè)模型,在高維情況下進(jìn)行了流動(dòng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的實(shí)證分析,從橫向和縱向?qū)ξC(jī)前后以及各個(gè)模型之間得出的結(jié)論進(jìn)行了分析比較,一方面應(yīng)用多元GARCH模型分析流動(dòng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢出效應(yīng),另一方面將多元GARCH的三類模型進(jìn)行對(duì)比分析比較,以期進(jìn)步推動(dòng)存在維數(shù)災(zāi)難情況下多變量的研究。 經(jīng)實(shí)證研究之后得到以下結(jié)論,危機(jī)前中美證券市場(chǎng)流動(dòng)性互為格蘭杰因果關(guān)系,中國(guó)證券市場(chǎng)為日本證券市場(chǎng)的單向格蘭杰英國(guó)關(guān)系；危機(jī)后,D工L_FS100、DIL_RJ225均為DIL_HS300的格蘭杰原因,而此時(shí)其它市場(chǎng)之間流動(dòng)性并沒(méi)不存在顯著的因果關(guān)系。各市場(chǎng)對(duì)來(lái)自他們自身一個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差新息響應(yīng)的時(shí)候,總是可以很快平復(fù)到零,對(duì)來(lái)自其它變量一個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差新息的響應(yīng)的時(shí)候,他們都是以零為中心上下震蕩,并且在經(jīng)過(guò)十天之后回復(fù)到零。不管是危機(jī)前還是危機(jī)后,各國(guó)證券市場(chǎng)中流動(dòng)性波動(dòng)的貢獻(xiàn)因素主要為自己市場(chǎng)本身。波動(dòng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)方面,危機(jī)后有了更高程度的波動(dòng)持續(xù)性,且受各國(guó)在應(yīng)對(duì)危機(jī)上經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的一致性,各國(guó)之間的流動(dòng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢出效應(yīng)都表現(xiàn)為一定程度的正相關(guān),其中SP500與FS100正相關(guān)程度最高,原則上流動(dòng)性的系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)仍然存在。
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of the process of global economic integration, the world economy can be described as ups and downs of unpredictable. After the reform and opening up, China has been out of an extraordinary 30 years, after 90s began to take the road to marketization. Gross domestic product (GDP) is growing at a double-digit rate every year, which is amazing to the world. However, the road is bumpy in the process of big leap forward, the Asian economic crisis in 1998. In 2008, the global financial crisis triggered by the US sub-credit crisis gave a profound test to China, the emerging economy. At the same time, especially after the 2008 financial crisis. The transmission effect of liquidity risk between countries is exposed in front of China and other countries all over the world. Under the condition of defenseless, the lack of liquidity causes the economies of all countries to fall like dominoes. On the basis of this background, this paper proposes to study the liquidity spillover effects between China, Japan, the United States and the United Kingdom stock markets. We consider the liquidity metrics respectively. Sample data selection and certain model selection, from the liquidity level and liquidity risk spillover effect, to measure the liquidity spillover effect between them, the characterization of liquidity level spillover effect. Based on the VAR vector autoregressive model, we apply Granger causality test and impulse response analysis. Variance decomposition analyzes the spillover effect between variables. The characterization of liquidity risk spillover effect is based on the estimation of the second moment of liquidity index. In the end, we choose the representative BEKK. DCC-GARCH.GO-GARCH three models in the multivariate GARCH model, and carry on the empirical analysis of liquidity risk in the case of high dimension. The conclusions before and after the crisis and among the models are analyzed and compared horizontally and vertically. On the one hand, multiple GARCH models are used to analyze the liquidity risk spillover effects. On the other hand, three kinds of multivariate GARCH models are compared and analyzed in order to promote the multivariate research in the presence of dimensionality disaster. After the empirical study, the following conclusions are drawn: before the crisis, the liquidity of China and America stock market is Granger causality, and the Chinese stock market is the one-way Granger British relationship of Japanese securities market. After the crisis, LFS100 / Dil RJ225 is the Granger cause of DIL_HS300. At this point, there is not a significant causal relationship between other markets. When markets respond to a standard deviation innovation from themselves, they can always flatten to zero quickly. When responding to a standard deviation innovation from other variables, they oscillate around zero and return to zero after ten days, either before or after the crisis. The main contribution factor of liquidity volatility in the securities market of various countries is their own market itself. In terms of volatility risk, there is a higher degree of volatility after the crisis, and the consistency of economic policies in responding to the crisis. The spillover effect of liquidity risk between countries is positive correlation to some extent, in which SP500 and FS100 have the highest positive correlation. In principle, systemic risk of liquidity still exists.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江工商大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F224;F831.7

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