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  本文關(guān)鍵詞：資產(chǎn)價格與我國最優(yōu)貨幣政策　出處：《南開大學(xué)》2012年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 資產(chǎn)價格 泡沫 最優(yōu)貨幣政策

【摘要】：隨著資產(chǎn)市場的深化與發(fā)展，資產(chǎn)價格對宏觀經(jīng)濟的影響日益深刻。這主要體現(xiàn)在兩個方面：第一，資產(chǎn)價格改變了傳統(tǒng)的貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)機制和通貨膨脹形成機制，，使得宏觀經(jīng)濟在一般商品價格穩(wěn)定和資產(chǎn)價格劇烈波動中運行。第二，資產(chǎn)價格泡沫的膨脹和破滅屢次導(dǎo)致金融危機甚至是經(jīng)濟危機。20世紀(jì)80年代至今，全球很多國家宏觀經(jīng)濟運行的一個重要特征就是，一般商品和服務(wù)價格穩(wěn)定，而資產(chǎn)價格，包括股票市場、房地產(chǎn)市場、債券市場和外匯市場等，均出現(xiàn)了比以往更大幅度和更為頻繁的波動。在資產(chǎn)價格膨脹與崩潰的循環(huán)之后，往往接踵而來的是金融危機、通貨膨脹和經(jīng)濟衰退。資產(chǎn)價格泡沫崩潰對金融穩(wěn)定和產(chǎn)出穩(wěn)定的沖擊，向傳統(tǒng)的貨幣政策操作提出了挑戰(zhàn)。各國中央銀行和理論界開始反思：只關(guān)注一般商品和服務(wù)價格而忽視資產(chǎn)價格波動的貨幣政策是否就是維護物價穩(wěn)定和產(chǎn)出穩(wěn)定的最優(yōu)政策？美國房地產(chǎn)價格泡沫2007年的破滅對美國乃至全球金融體系和實體經(jīng)濟的巨大沖擊，更是讓研究者們達(dá)成一個共識：一般商品價格穩(wěn)定并不足以實現(xiàn)金融穩(wěn)定，也不足以實現(xiàn)產(chǎn)出穩(wěn)定。那么，貨幣政策是否應(yīng)該更多地考慮資產(chǎn)市場因素，對資產(chǎn)價格的大幅波動做出反應(yīng)？對于我國，股票市場的暴漲和暴跌以及房地產(chǎn)價格的持續(xù)上漲引發(fā)了對資產(chǎn)價格泡沫風(fēng)險的擔(dān)憂，要求政策救市的呼聲此起彼伏。因此，研究資產(chǎn)價格與我國的最優(yōu)貨幣政策，對我國具有一定的理論意義和現(xiàn)實意義。 貨幣政策是否需要對資產(chǎn)價格泡沫做出響應(yīng)這一問題，不管是在理論界，還是在各國的央行貨幣政策操作層面，都存在著巨大的分歧和爭議。分歧主要體現(xiàn)在三點：第一，資產(chǎn)價格波動對貨幣政策目標(biāo)——產(chǎn)出穩(wěn)定和通脹穩(wěn)定是否存在著顯著的影響？第二，中央銀行是否能適時檢測、識別到資產(chǎn)價格泡沫過程？第三，傳統(tǒng)的貨幣政策工具對資產(chǎn)價格泡沫的干預(yù)是否有效？ 針對這些問題，本文采用規(guī)范分析與實證分析的研究方法，做了較為系統(tǒng)的研究。研究結(jié)果表明：第一，從股票市場或者房地產(chǎn)市場這些單一種類的資產(chǎn)價格的貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)機制檢驗來看，貨幣政策對資產(chǎn)市場的傳導(dǎo)較為暢通，而資產(chǎn)價格對消費和投資的傳導(dǎo)不完全暢通。第二，以股票價格、房地產(chǎn)價格和實際有效匯率組成的資產(chǎn)價格指數(shù)與產(chǎn)出和通脹之間存在著顯著的格蘭杰因果關(guān)系，可以用于預(yù)測未來通脹和產(chǎn)出。而且，資產(chǎn)價格指數(shù)對貨幣供應(yīng)量的沖擊具有顯著的響應(yīng)，貨幣政策對資產(chǎn)價格的干預(yù)是有效的。第三，基于資產(chǎn)價格指數(shù)的經(jīng)濟模擬顯示，納入資產(chǎn)價格的最優(yōu)貨幣政策反應(yīng)函數(shù)的央行損失，顯著低于不包含資產(chǎn)價格的最優(yōu)貨幣政策反應(yīng)函數(shù)。 基于本文的研究結(jié)論，本文提出了相關(guān)的政策建議：編制資產(chǎn)價格指數(shù)，定期發(fā)布并予以解讀，培養(yǎng)公眾理性投資意識，抑制資產(chǎn)市場的過度投機；以資產(chǎn)價格膨脹代替資產(chǎn)價格泡沫作為衡量資產(chǎn)價格失衡的指標(biāo)，訂立資產(chǎn)價格波動幅度的絕對值基準(zhǔn)，作為貨幣政策干預(yù)資產(chǎn)市場的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)；把資產(chǎn)價格指數(shù)納入貨幣政策操作體系，適時和適度地控制資產(chǎn)價格的持續(xù)大幅上漲；加強對銀行信貸監(jiān)管，控制金融機構(gòu)資產(chǎn)價格風(fēng)險暴露，減少資產(chǎn)價格泡沫破滅對實體經(jīng)濟的沖擊；通過差別利率、窗口指導(dǎo)等貨幣政策工具，調(diào)節(jié)流向資產(chǎn)市場的貨幣規(guī)模。
[Abstract]:With the deepening and development of asset markets, asset prices on the macroeconomic impact of increasingly profound. This is mainly embodied in two aspects: first, asset prices have changed the traditional monetary policy transmission mechanism and the formation mechanism of inflation, makes macroeconomic volatility in commodity prices and asset prices generally stable. In second, expansion and collapse often leads to financial crisis and economic crisis is the.20 century since 80s, asset price bubbles, an important feature of many countries in the world economy is generally stable prices of goods and services, and the price of assets, including the stock market, real estate market, bond market and foreign exchange market, there are more than in the past and more frequent fluctuations in asset prices. After the expansion cycle and collapse, often followed by the financial crisis, inflation and recession Back. The collapse of asset price bubbles on the financial stability and output stability of the impact, challenges to the traditional monetary policy. The central bank and the theoretical circles began to reflect: focus only on the general price of goods and services and ignore the asset price fluctuations and monetary policy is to maintain price stability and output stability of the optimal policy impact? The real estate price bubble burst in 2007 to the United States and the global financial system and the real economy, is to let the researchers have reached a consensus: price stability is not enough to achieve financial stability, will not be enough to achieve stable output. So, whether the monetary policy should consider more asset market factors, fluctuations of assets the price response? For our country, the rise and fall of the stock market and rising real estate prices led to asset price bubble The risk of bubble risk calls for the policy to rescue the market. Therefore, the study of asset price and China's optimal monetary policy has certain theoretical and practical significance for our country.
Whether the monetary policy needs to respond the problem of asset price bubbles, whether in theory or in the countries of the central bank's monetary policy operational level, there are great differences and disputes. The differences are mainly embodied in three points: first, the volatility of asset prices on monetary policy goals -- output stability and the existence of stable inflation a significant impact? Second, whether the central bank can timely detection, recognition to the process of asset price bubble? Third, intervention of traditional monetary policy tools to asset price bubbles is effective?
To solve these problems, this paper adopts the research methods of normative analysis and empirical analysis, have been studied. The results show that: first, from the test of monetary policy transmission mechanism of stock market or real estate market the single kind of asset prices, monetary policy on asset market conduction is more smooth, and asset prices on consumption and investment conduction is not completely smooth. In second, the stock price, real estate prices and the real effective exchange rate of the composition of asset price index and output and inflation are Grainger a significant causal relationship, which can be used to predict future inflation and output. Moreover, the impact of asset prices on money supply has a significant response. The intervention of monetary policy on asset prices is effective. Third, the asset price index of economic simulation based on the optimal monetary policy into asset prices The central bank loss of the policy response function is significantly lower than the optimal monetary policy response function that does not contain asset prices.
Based on the conclusions, this paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions: the preparation of asset price index released, and interpret them regularly, foster public awareness of rational investment, curb excessive speculation in asset markets; to asset price inflation instead of asset price bubbles as a measure of asset price imbalance index, the absolute value of a benchmark asset price fluctuation amplitude and as a monetary policy intervention in asset markets; the asset price index into the monetary policy operation system, timely and proper control of asset prices continued to rise sharply; to strengthen the supervision of bank credit, asset price risk exposure of financial institutions, reduce asset price bubble burst on the real economy impact; the interest rate difference, window guidance etc. the tools of monetary policy, monetary asset market regulation to scale.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：南開大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.51;F822.0;F224

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